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Decisive Confederate Victory at Chickamauga

History Learner

Well-known member
With the 160th anniversary of the Battle having just taken place (The reenactment is this weekend, highly encourage everyone to come!), I felt a thread was in order.

Historically, while successful in derailing Federal efforts into Georgia until the following campaign season, the Confederate success was "fruitless"; the Army of the Cumberland was able to survive and Bragg's Army of the Tennessee failed to recapture the critical rail hub of Chattanooga. The failed siege and resulting Federal retention of that crucial city would thus set the stage for the Atlanta Campaign in 1864, which would be a Union success and allow for the re-election of Lincoln. However, it did not have to be this way as noted by Dave Powell, who is generally considered the modern expert on the battle. In fact, Bragg had a golden opportunity on the morning of the 19th to divide the Federal Army in two and defeat it in detail:

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By moving forward his forces, Bragg would have smashed Crittenden in his exposed flank. More importantly, this would've cut off the means of retreat to Chattanooga for the five divisions under Crittenden and McCook, and allowed Bragg to focus his other Corps solely upon the remaining five divisions under Thomas to the North. Cut off in McLemore's Cove, Crittenden and McCook both would've both been forced to surrender on the 20th, cut off as they were from supply and any viable means of escape in McLemore's Cove. To get an idea of the situation, attached is the tactical map of the situation on the morning of the 19th, from Dave Powell's Decisions at Chickamauga (and from where our PoD comes from, also):

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This would also create a very serious situation for Thomas as the 20th arrived, as he would not receive Negley's Division and would thus have a seriously exposed left flank. Even worse, with the Federal Army divided in two by Bragg's actions, Longstreet's Corp would be going into combat fresh against a much weaker, more exposed Thomas than IOTL. It thus stands to reason Thomas would be much more easily routed, with higher casualties, than historically occurred:


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Even worse, seven of the Army's 10 divisional hospitals filled with wounded are at Crawfish Springs, while two brigades of cavalry and a fair portion of the Army's supply train would likewise be exposed to destruction by the Confederates. Between those losses, Thomas being routed off the field and roughly five divisions being forced to surrender, you're easily looking at 35,000 losses by the Army of the Cumberland, which would have to abandon Chattanooga and likely fall back on Nashville given a now decisive Confederate numerical advantage and the loss of sufficient supply capacity with the damage to the baggage trains.

This would definitely not be a fruitless victory, and could very easily set the stage for French intervention to end the war or so damage the Federal war effort as to allow a peace by exhaustion in 1864.
 
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Easy to talk about cut off forces being doomed - but when they're on the scale of divisions, you either have to force their surrender with hard fighting, or use substantial forces to screen them off and keep them cut off. Your course of events seems to provide neither, assuming that when Union forces are momentarily cut off they collapse without further Confederate efforts.
 
Easy to talk about cut off forces being doomed - but when they're on the scale of divisions, you either have to force their surrender with hard fighting, or use substantial forces to screen them off and keep them cut off. Your course of events seems to provide neither, assuming that when Union forces are momentarily cut off they collapse without further Confederate efforts.

Bragg had amassed 21,000 troops to strike into the Gap on the 19th, while Crittenden's Corps had 13,000 going into the battle; that's a rather hefty margin of superiority on the part of the Confederates. As for hard fighting, as Powell notes, once isolated, the Confederates could defeat either segment of the Army in detail since they could strike either in their now exposed flank; that is exactly what I propose.

As for "momentarily" cut off, to the Federal left is Missionary Ridge and to their right is the Chickamauga Creek itself with D.H. Hill on the other side and yet to be committed. The only means of retreat available to the cut off portions are to attack through 21,000 Confederates:

Chickamauga_Sep19_1%2Bmorning.jpg


France is not gonna intervene one way or the other.

Napoleon III was contemplating unilateral intervention all year, and didn't decide against it until the time of the Confederate defeat at Chattanooga. The Erlanger Loan, the only foreign loan the Confederacy achieved in its existence, was arranged through a French bank in 1863 as part of these deliberations.
 
While I'm not entirely sure that Federal forces would have been routed completely, I would agree with Powell that Bragg had an opportunity to, at the very least, severely damage the Army of the Cumberland past any sense of Combat Effectiveness.

It would likely be a demoralising defeat, though I'm not entirely sold on the idea of France seriously committing to a military intervention.
 
While I'm not entirely sure that Federal forces would have been routed completely, I would agree with Powell that Bragg had an opportunity to, at the very least, severely damage the Army of the Cumberland past any sense of Combat Effectiveness.

With Crittenden cut off as well as the Divisions of Negley and Sheridan, Thomas has five alone divisions against Polk and Walker on the 19th. Longstreet then arrives on the 20th with a fresh Corps, and Thomas doesn't have Negley to screen his flank. I'm assuming Granger marching to the rescue will prevent a complete destruction of Thomas, but I really don't see anyway Longstreet hitting Thomas in an exposed flank with Confederate superiority in numbers all around him won't end in a rout.

Bragg went into action with about 65,000 men and has 21,000 facing off to the south, leaving roughly 44,000 to attack Thomas. That's roughly a 2:1 superiority in numbers.

It would likely be a demoralising defeat, though I'm not entirely sold on the idea of France seriously committing to a military intervention.

Napoleon dreamed of a North American empire and to secure his client in Mexico, he needed the Confederacy to the North to screen it from U.S. actions. Blue and Gray Diplomacy: A History of Union and Confederate Foreign Relations by HOWARD JONES, CHAPTER 9:

French interest in intervention continued after the British rebuff and, like their counterpart, for reasons unrelated to slavery. Napoleon had long favored the Confederacy though restrained by his people’s distaste for slavery, which partly explained his reluctance to act without a British initiative. But by late 1862 domestic economic problems had threatened violence and provided a strong motivation for leading an intervention ostensibly aimed at ending the American war and securing access to southern cotton. Napoleon, however, had more in mind. A close relationship with the Confederacy would combine with control over Mexico to facilitate his predecessor’s dream: Reestablish French influence in the New World and tip the world balance of power toward Paris.​
 
Interesting.

What ultimately derailed it was the news of the Confederate defeat at Chattanooga arriving about the same time as Confederate diplomats were in Paris. Here instead, they'd have smashed the main Federal Army in the West and reclaimed much of Tennessee in the process. Even if it doesn't trigger French intervention, such a defeat would greatly impact the Ohio and Pennsylvania Gubernatorial races, which would hinder Union force generation for the 1864 campaigns. It's worth remembering Lincoln thought he was going to lose re-election as late as August of 1864, and here Atlanta is far behind Confederate lines now...
 
What ultimately derailed it was the news of the Confederate defeat at Chattanooga arriving about the same time as Confederate diplomats were in Paris. Here instead, they'd have smashed the main Federal Army in the West and reclaimed much of Tennessee in the process. Even if it doesn't trigger French intervention, such a defeat would greatly impact the Ohio and Pennsylvania Gubernatorial races, which would hinder Union force generation for the 1864 campaigns. It's worth remembering Lincoln thought he was going to lose re-election as late as August of 1864, and here Atlanta is far behind Confederate lines now...
Very interesting. I had no idea that the Third French Empire was considering the matter of intervention so seriously. I knew the thought had been tossed around by a few British politicians with ties to big business but nevertheless it makes sense why France might have a stake in the game, their dislike of slavery notwithstanding. Power and prestige tends to prevail over moral imperatives, unfortunately.

No idea Chickamauga could have been so pivotal, normally it's discussed as the "Confederate barely-a-victory that predated their assblasting at Chattanooga."
 
Very interesting. I had no idea that the Third French Empire was considering the matter of intervention so seriously. I knew the thought had been tossed around by a few British politicians with ties to big business but nevertheless it makes sense why France might have a stake in the game, their dislike of slavery notwithstanding. Power and prestige tends to prevail over moral imperatives, unfortunately.

No idea Chickamauga could have been so pivotal, normally it's discussed as the "Confederate barely-a-victory that predated their assblasting at Chattanooga."

I'd highly recommend Dave Powell's book I've cited from but also his trilogy on the Battle, which is considered the current definitive work on the battle. One thing that comes through a lot is it really was a best case scenario for the Union, as there was a lot of PoDs I could've used for this.

Case in point is the McLemore's Cove episode on September 11th. Two brigades of Baird’s Division (2,800) had joined Negley’s Division (4,500) and were facing 16,000 Confederates (2.5 to 1 odds). The Federals ordered their wagons to start retreating while the troops stood their ground to cover that withdraw but it took most of the day. I’m attaching the map to show they had an exposed flank and Powell points out a Confederate attack would’ve forced them into the “V” of the Cove and thus encircled them.

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Next was the situation of the 13th, when Bragg managed to gather 30,000 infantry and 6,000 cavalry against 13,000 Infantry and 2,000 cavalry under Crittenden at Lee and Gordon's Mill. Given how spread out Rosecrans was, it was entirely possible for Bragg to destroy the two divisions at McLemore's Cove and then turn and do the same to Crittenden, while also opening up the direct route to re-take Chattanooga before Thomas and McCook could reform.

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