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Corbyn PODs

Arthur_Phuxache

Total Inabilty To Supply Usual Performance
The pandemic would be butterflied away as well.
By alien space bats, or alien space pangolins?

Another POD is the polls are right, and the 2019 GE result turns up at the 2017 GE, and presumably Corbyn quits. In which case Treezas Chequers/WAB passes easily, and she's still in charge when the Pandemic hits.
 
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Torten

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Wessex, UK
Labour winning a couple more seats in 2017, because the party fights a more aggressive campaign in marginal seats would be interesting - would Johnson lose some of the tight votes in September/October time? Or General election October 2019 - how much would the lack of an 'oven-ready' Brexit deal hurt Johnson?
 

stefanbl

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Wales
I saw someone mention that they noticed a massive drop off in Jezza's personal ratings after the Russians failed to kill the Skirpals and he declined to immediately finger the Russians. If this did have a significant effect (Its not super obvious to me looking at the figures, and being unable to remember if something else happened at the same time) it seems easy to butterfly, either the Russians call off the job for whatever reason (He'd been in the UK for eight years already), or its done in such a blatant way that Corbyn admits it was the Russians and then mostly shuts up,
 

Avian Overlord

Mystical American Freedom Bird
I saw someone mention that they noticed a massive drop off in Jezza's personal ratings after the Russians failed to kill the Skirpals and he declined to immediately finger the Russians. If this did have a significant effect (Its not super obvious to me looking at the figures, and being unable to remember if something else happened at the same time) it seems easy to butterfly, either the Russians call off the job for whatever reason (He'd been in the UK for eight years already), or its done in such a blatant way that Corbyn admits it was the Russians and then mostly shuts up,
"None of the people Corbyn likes do anything" is a pretty big ask.
 

Charles EP M.

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Published by SLP
If there isn't a leadership challenge would be one - then most of his first shadow cabinet are still there and other figures aren't, the Labour factions have to grumpily interact, and the Tories can't go "even Labour doesn't want him". That puts him and Labour in a stronger position in the next election.

If something like the TIGs happens earlier, and can't be flattened by the Lib Dems so early on. The longer it looks like the splitters have a shot and the sparkle of hope in their eyes, the worse for Corbyn. (And it's not so good for May or the Lib Dems either)

Corbyn still wins the leadership but his opponents do better somehow (or there's less), so he doesn't start leadership with a clear first-round majority. Does that hurt him or help him?
 

Comisario

Hello Tony, I am 1952
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Oh, Labour doesn't back a second referendum is interesting, both in how you get there and what it does in the election. I think the red wall holds but Boris gets what May was expecting in the final week of 2017 - 340-350, so a freer hand.
Election is probably held under very different circumstances, mind. It took a lot of parliamentary shenanigans to get us to the point where Classic Dom's "win by losing" strategy was actually viable - and those shenanigans were as a result of the progression from the leadership being open to a 2nd referendum and then the leadership actively backing a 2nd referendum.
 

Nomad

Well-known member
Oh, Labour doesn't back a second referendum is interesting, both in how you get there and what it does in the election. I think the red wall holds but Boris gets what May was expecting in the final week of 2017 - 340-350, so a freer hand.
If you ended up in a similar situation to OTL-with Labour repeatedly voting down the WA and calling for a softer form Brexit, then I don't think refusing to support a second referendum would make a huge difference to us in the red wall. We would still be perceived as frustrating the outcome of the referendum, and that would lose us many of the leave votes we lost IOTL, whilst at the same time making it far harder to consolidate Remainers around us as we did during the course of the campaign. It might actually end up with an even worse result than OTL.
 

Meadow

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If you ended up in a similar situation to OTL-with Labour repeatedly voting down the WA and calling for a softer form Brexit, then I don't think refusing to support a second referendum would make a huge difference to us in the red wall. We would still be perceived as frustrating the outcome of the referendum, and that would lose us many of the leave votes we lost IOTL, whilst at the same time making it far harder to consolidate Remainers around us as we did during the course of the campaign. It might actually end up with an even worse result than OTL.
It's a fair possibility, and it brings us to 'Labour makes a deal with May during that four week period and then we end up passing a deal'. There surely wouldn't be a GE until 2022, and Cobyn's survival would be at risk for the summer of 2019.
 

Nomad

Well-known member
It's a fair possibility, and it brings us to 'Labour makes a deal with May during that four week period and then we end up passing a deal'. There surely wouldn't be a GE until 2022, and Cobyn's survival would be at risk for the summer of 2019.
I don't think that a cross party deal was ever on the cards. There was mass opposition to it from MPs and the grassroots of both major parties. Even if it could pass despite the inevitably huge rebellions that would take place on both sides, and the vote of no confidence that May would face and probably lose, Tory rebels could still wreck it by voting to bring down their own government, and I think it's highly likely that you'd be able to find more than enough hardcore eurosceptic Tory MPs willing to do just that.

If that happens, the Tories would be going into a GE with collapsing support and a highly unpopular leader, whilst the Brexit Party surges, and a similar dynamic would likely be playing out among Remainers with Labour and the Lib Dems. It would be an utter shit show, which is why it would probably never be allowed to happen, as much as it would make for a great TL.
 

Gary Oswald

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I don't think that a cross party deal was ever on the cards. There was mass opposition to it from MPs and the grassroots of both major parties. Even if it could pass despite the inevitably huge rebellions that would take place on both sides, and the vote of no confidence that May would face and probably lose, Tory rebels could still wreck it by voting to bring down their own government, and I think it's highly likely that you'd be able to find more than enough hardcore eurosceptic Tory MPs willing to do just that.

If that happens, the Tories would be going into a GE with collapsing support and a highly unpopular leader, whilst the Brexit Party surges, and a similar dynamic would likely be playing out among Remainers with Labour and the Lib Dems. It would be an utter shit show, which is why it would probably never be allowed to happen, as much as it would make for a great TL.
May couldn't be voted out as leader cos she won the confidence of tory mps and so couldn't be challenged for 12 months.

In terms of a deal passing through parliament with the 2017 mps, well it happened otl with Johnson's deal despite corbyn whipping against it. If instead May convinces corbyn to allow abstaining or make it a free vote then yeah the deal is going to be passed.

The DNP said if that happened, they'd then withdraw their support to the tories which would like you say lead to an election but I don't know how much I trust that given OTL. And if Corbyn whipping to abstain on the vote one of the many times the deal was put to parliament, would lead to the government collapsing and a new election against May well it's difficult to see why he didn't do that then.
 

Stateless

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Having the never-Corbyns squat in the Shadow Caninet would be fun. Burnham was Home before mayoring, but Cooper, Umunna, Leslie, Hunt, Creagh etc all refused to countenance being in the Shadow Cabinet. If they're keeping others out it changes the dynamics of the Shadow Cabinet, prevents some from gaining prominence, allows a more credible challenger if and when that happens, and if TIG-CUK{ happens it's a bigger impact.

Maybe more credible, avoid having Benn wield the knife in 2016 so that he runs instead of Smith. I can't see him doing worse than Smith, but not well enough to win.
 

Nomad

Well-known member
May couldn't be voted out as leader cos she won the confidence of tory mps and so couldn't be challenged for 12 months.
Technically, but the 1922 can amend the rulebook as it see's fit, so that it isnt worth the paper that it is written on. If there's a majority to remove May, there's a majority to make the rule change. Even if there isnt, she cant credibly continue if a large minority are against her.
In terms of a deal passing through parliament with the 2017 mps, well it happened otl with Johnson's deal despite corbyn whipping against it. If instead May convinces corbyn to allow abstaining or make it a free vote then yeah the deal is going to be passed.
Possibly, but Johnson succeeded because he was able to combine the support of the more radical sections within his parliamentary party with those who just wanted a deal at any cost by that point. In this scenario, the deal is going to have to pass with the opposition of both second referendum supporters and hard Brexiteers, so the calculation is fundamentally different.

Also, if the deal is going to be passed, a Labour abstention isn't going to cut it. 118 Tory MPs rebelled against the government on the first vote on the WA. Realistically, any agreement with Labour is going to produce a softer exit than the one initially proposed by May, so any rebellion against it is going to be just as big, if not bigger. Once you take into account the various minor Remainer parties, the DUP and the sizeable number of Labour MPs who will vote against regardless of what Corbyn tells them to do, you're looking at a loss of at least fifty.

If a compromise deal was going to be passed, it would require Labour to explicitly whip in favour of voting with the government.
The DNP said if that happened, they'd then withdraw their support to the tories which would like you say lead to an election but I don't know how much I trust that given OTL. And if Corbyn whipping to abstain on the vote one of the many times the deal was put to parliament, would lead to the government collapsing and a new election against May well it's difficult to see why he didn't do that then.
Such a scenario might well have been Corbyn was hoping for when he engaged in the cross party talks, but the problem with this in practice is that he also needed to appease his own side at the same time, first by securing enough concessions from May to bring enough of the PLP with him to pass the deal, and later by avoiding being seen as enabling Brexit by Labour voters who were flirting with the Lib Dems.

May was never going to offer him those concessions, because that would lead to her haemorrhaging support among her own MPs and voters, and being a human being who was herself capable of rational independent thought, she wasn't going to try and pass a deal that would result in the collapse of her government and in all probability her party as well.
 
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iupius

Is it future or is it past?
Maybe something a little different. Theresa May walks down a different Welsh hill in April 2017 and decides against calling the snappy. And then comes the May elections, Labour gets a bloody nose as OTL but, this time, the Manchester Gorton by-election takes place as scheduled. Some talk at the time, mostly from St Timothy of Westmorland, that the Lib Dems were doing rather well until May stood at the podium and announced that she’d CRUSH! THE! SABOTEURS!

Let’s say the Lib Dems weren’t just amping themselves up, and one of Labour’s safest seats in the country is lost. Two paths here: May reconsiders and we get a snappy in late June, early July (with Grenfell presumably in the middle of the campaign) or Corbyn finally jumps.
 

AgentRudda

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the dream

it's the july 2019 general election. corbyn and may successfully negotiated a soft brexit deal and forced it through parliament. w leave the eu as scheduled. there might have been a few deselections but it's okay because theresa may is still tory leader and "proud" by heather small is our campaign anthem and our manifesto is about chucking tons of money towards saving pubs and football clubs and abolishing business rates and giving free rents to the high street and a special nhs service for veterans and jon trickett is in charge of the campaign, and basically everything is okay
 

AgentRudda

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Maybe something a little different. Theresa May walks down a different Welsh hill in April 2017 and decides against calling the snappy. And then comes the May elections, Labour gets a bloody nose as OTL but, this time, the Manchester Gorton by-election takes place as scheduled. Some talk at the time, mostly from St Timothy of Westmorland, that the Lib Dems were doing rather well until May stood at the podium and announced that she’d CRUSH! THE! SABOTEURS!

Let’s say the Lib Dems weren’t just amping themselves up, and one of Labour’s safest seats in the country is lost. Two paths here: May reconsiders and we get a snappy in late June, early July (with Grenfell presumably in the middle of the campaign) or Corbyn finally jumps.
Theresa May stalling and postponing an election call is thoroughly within her character. Corbyn just going like that simply isn't. He viewed his leadership as a fundamental duty to repay the faith the membership had placed in him and he'd stay out till the bitter end. See OTL.
 

iupius

Is it future or is it past?
Theresa May stalling and postponing an election call is thoroughly within her character. Corbyn just going like that simply isn't. He viewed his leadership as a fundamental duty to repay the faith the membership had placed in him and he'd stay out till the bitter end. See OTL.
I recall there being some talk at the time that he might go if the Gorton by-election was lost. This was pre-2017 election, so his only record was The Referendum, the chicken coup, a narrow hold in Stoke-on-Trent-Central, the loss of Copeland, and a huge deficit in the polls. I can imagine that being the final straw, but I thought the idea of a nah-oh-wait-no-let’s-go-for-it snappy was more fun (almost like Brown ‘07 in reverse).
 

Gorro Rubio

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I have thought of a couple more:

-Corbyn resigns in autumn 2017 and McDonnell wins the subsequent leadership election. Would be interesting to see how he deals with PV.
-Labour loses the Peterborough by-election and Thornberry launches his rumoured leadership challenge. Islington Civil War consumes the party in the summer of 2019.
 

CaliGuy

Active member
  • The Grenfell Tower fire happens a week earlier, Labour is the largest party by three seats
  • Corbyn is kept off the ballot in 2016 by the NEC - probably the fastest route to a damp-squib Momentum Party
  • The 2017 election isn't held at all, and the McDonnell Amendment passes conference as expected. Johnny Mac takes over in 2018 after disappointing locals under Corbyn
  • And, of course: Britain votes to Remain in the European Union in 2016
Also, your usertitle go brrrr
What happens in the latter scenario?
 
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