Burnham Wins 15’; What Are The Effects Beyond Westminster

[Time Enough]

So I was thinking of this scenario the other day;

2010 - 2016: David Cameron (Conservative)
2010 (Coalition with Liberal Democrats) def. Gordon Brown (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats)
2014 Scottish Independence Referendum: Yes 45%, No 55%
2015 (Majority) def. Ed Miliband (Labour), Nicola Sturgeon (Scottish National), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats)
2016 Brexit Referendum: Leave 52%, Remain 48%
2016 - 2018: Theresa May (Conservative Majority)
2018 - 2023: Andy Burnham (Labour)
2018 (Majority) def. Theresa May (Conservative), Nicola Sturgeon (Scottish National), Tim Farron (Liberal Democrats)
2023 - : Boris Johnson (Conservative)
2023 (Majority) def. Andy Burnham (Labour), Angus Robertson (Scottish National), Daisy Cooper (Liberal Democrats)

The Left’s Warrior King; Does Clive Lewis Have What It Takes to Become Leader?

June 14th 2023

It was with a teary gleam in his eye that Andy Burnham stated he would resign as Labour leader. With that Deputy Leader, Angela Eagle stepped into the breach to become Acting Leader whilst Labour engages looks within and prepares for a bloody brawl as it common with the party in opposition.

The usual parade of potential candidates have announced leadership bids; Former Chancellor Yvette Cooper (and Burnham’s 2015 leadership rival), the former Secretary for Transport Michael Dugher (Burnham’s 2015 Campaign manager) and former Environment and Energy Secretary Lisa Nandy (part of the so called ‘Open Labour’ group) are officially thrown there hat in the rings, meanwhile Chuka Umunna (member of the Labour For EU) and Dan Jarvis (Jarvis as always will appear) have been making soundings.

But amongst the noise, one man has also stated a leadership run and does seem to be getting surprising amounts of support. Compared to the other potential candidates he’s a more recent MP, many of the others being voted into office during the Blair and Brown years whilst he was voted into office during Miliband’s tenure. He’s the only other prominent candidate beside Lisa Nandy, who is of colour and lastly, he’s a member of the Socialist Campaign Group, the old bastion of Labour twinkling flame of Democratic Socialism. Previous Labour candidates have been either denied a running spot (McDonnell and Corbyn) or were allowed onto the ballot out of awkward pity (Abbott), Clive Lewis seems to be the on the way to actually getting onto the ballot as he already has the support of the thirty MPs required to get onto the initial ballots.

Lewis’s campaign is being aggressively coordinated by the previous figures behind the successful ‘Not The Labour Leadership’ campaign; Owen Jones and Jon Lansman which sought to embarrass the Labour Party (which it did resoundingly) and get Socialists to embrace the party as a vessel for change.

Whilst it can be said that some of the followers of the original campaign have drifted away towards the Greens (as Cleo Lake’s electoral victory in Bristol can attest) there is still a sizeable enough contingency, mainly clustered around the ‘New Left’ group within the party, that remain and are campaigning for Lewis. Indeed Lewis is hoping that grassroots campaigning and reaching out to the ‘working people of Britain’ will make up for his shortfall in Parliamentary support.

Indeed Lewis is campaigning on a manifesto of Leftist Principles; from promising to ‘usher in a new period the party’s democratic values’, to ‘creating a party of activists, not foot soldiers’ and to ‘usher in a new Democratic Socialist movement in Britain’.

Meanwhile Lewis, has been going a smoosh cruise throughout the Trade Unions and other Labour affiliate groups. Steve Turner has been coy about whether he’ll support the Left Wing Underdog Lewis, or the safer option of Nandy, though both campaigns have been rabidly fighting for Unites endorsement in the weeks to come. Additionally he’s gained some soft support from BAME Labour, a crucial group given their support and campaigning for Butler in the 2018 London Mayoral Election being crucial for that surprising result (some have said that Lewis wouldn’t be running for leader if Butler hadn’t shown the support for Leftist Black and Minority politicians in Britain).

Lewis has throughout his campaigning touted himself as Labour’s answer to ‘Johnson’s Vulgar Nationalistic Populist Politics’ as one campaigner coined. But bring out the question about Lewis being the ‘Anti-Johnson’ has brought out the ugly spectre that lurks behind Lewis.

Lewis has often been in the spotlight for his foot in mouth moments and habit of speaking off the cuff, but there’s lingering allegations of sexual harassment which he was cleared off by a Labour Party Board and using misogynistic language at numerous points. Whilst he has apologised, some question whether handing the Labour movement to an at times volatile figure is the right move. So have pointed out that Johnson has gotten away with much worse, whilst others have pointed out that the Labour Party doesn’t get the same treatment from the press as Johnson did.

Only time will tell if Clive Lewis is able to actual fulfil the promise he’s offering, but it’s safe to say that the Left is finally getting it’s voice back…

Inspired by @AH Layard and @Walpurgisnacht previous stuff

And I was thinking what would the effects of Burnham winning the Labour leadership and then winning a majority have beyond just Westminster?

-Does Sturgeon resign earlier, does the corruption get highlighted earlier too? Who’s Labour leader and does other Left Wing and the Greens movements have more chance of expanding their support with Burnham in Westminster?

-Is Drakeford still going to be First Minister? I could see Vaughn Gething maybe succeeding or someone else?

-Those various Mayors are likely rather different, particularly without Burnham?

-Maybe Yorkshire gets an actual devolved assembly, I know Burnham is rather in favour of devolved assemblies and councils for the North etc.

-Does Labour bungle into Northern Ireland, Labour MP Sylvia Hermon anyone ( @Ulster @Gorrister @neonduke )


And beyond…

@Callan @OwenM @Meadow @Alex Richards @Comisario and other takers

 

[OwenM]

So I was thinking of this scenario the other day;

And I was thinking what would the effects of Burnham winning the Labour leadership and then winning a majority have beyond just Westminster?

-Does Sturgeon resign earlier, does the corruption get highlighted earlier too? Who’s Labour leader and does other Left Wing and the Greens movements have more chance of expanding their support with Burnham in Westminster?

-Is Drakeford still going to be First Minister? I could see Vaughn Gething maybe succeeding or someone else?

-Those various Mayors are likely rather different, particularly without Burnham?

-Maybe Yorkshire gets an actual devolved assembly, I know Burnham is rather in favour of devolved assemblies and councils for the North etc.

-Does Labour bungle into Northern Ireland, Labour MP Sylvia Hermon anyone ( @Ulster @Gorrister @neonduke )


And beyond…

@Callan @OwenM @Meadow @Alex Richards @Comisario and other takers

I think Gething is the most likely in a world where Corbyn isn't leader - OTL he came very close in a contest where the MSs almost all fell in behind Drakeford's seeming inevitability.
Otoh I suppose Ken Skates might run after all and Huw Irranca might get on the ballot and there's an outside chance one of them might do better amongst members.

 

[Time Enough]

I think Gething is the most likely in a world where Corbyn isn't leader - OTL he came very close in a contest where the MSs almost all fell in behind Drakeford's seeming inevitability.
Otoh I suppose Ken Skates might run after all and Huw Irranca might get on the ballot and there's an outside chance one of them might do better amongst members.

I think Gething is quite likely, though it could be fairly competitive particularly if the electoral college is still being used.

I do wonder the impact of Gething being first Minister for both Wales but also beyond, similar to how you can draw a correlation between Huzma Yousaf and Rishi Sunak’s rise to there respective top jobs, being able because of Sadiq Khan becoming Mayor of London in 2016.

 

[Charles EP M.]

The SNP having its issues highlighted earlier seems inevitable if its position is weaker, all the problems papered over will come out, but I get the feeling it'll be less of a problem for them if this happens in 2018? It'll still be bad but this is when Sturgeon hasn't been First Minister for almost a decade, hasn't had the SNP regain Westminster seats two years after a wobble, hasn't been presented as the mature adult compared to the squabbling and Boris reign in Westminster, hasn't had the poll heights of covid etc. It's not as steep a fall.

 

[Time Enough]

The SNP having its issues highlighted earlier seems inevitable if its position is weaker, all the problems papered over will come out, but I get the feeling it'll be less of a problem for them if this happens in 2018? It'll still be bad but this is when Sturgeon hasn't been First Minister for almost a decade, hasn't had the SNP regain Westminster seats two years after a wobble, hasn't been presented as the mature adult compared to the squabbling and Boris reign in Westminster, hasn't had the poll heights of covid etc. It's not as steep a fall.

I could see it leading to ‘Angus Robertson or some other stabilising figure of the Scottish Nationals’ taking over as it were. Less of Sturgeon’s immediate vacuum of power.

I guess it allows the Scottish National Party to more easily bounce back when the time comes, a slight decline occurs but a stable position is probably reached unlike the free fall occurring currently. That all being said, 2018 is around about the beginning of Salmond’s resignation and investigation into sexual misconduct so there’s that too.