British Protectorate of the Republic of Formosa

[Simon]

Inspired by this article that strategos' risk posted about on the Other Place. In the aftermath of the First Sino-Japanese War seeing which was things were headed a group of local officials approached the British consul in Taipei to try and find a way to have Formosa come under British protection – ideally for a set length of time similar to Hong Kong – and also directly telegraphed London but were declined. The French heard about this and offered to take over the islands under a "caretaker government" but the locals, not trusting them, bluntly refused. With the Treaty of Shimonoseki having been signed the locals made one last attempt at avoiding annexation by declaring independence as the Republic of Formosa which lasted five months before Japanese troops took full control.

One idea I had was for the French – likely at the cost of a smaller indemnity – to convince the other two members of the Triple Intervention to include recognition of the Republic's declaration of independence as part of their terms, their hope being to bring it into their sphere of influence or outright annex it at a later date. Trusting the French as much as they did previously, and still fearing the Japanese, the Formosans start looking around for possible solutions. With Formosa now 'in play' thanks to obvious French interest, Japan still eyeing the island jealously, and Germany or Russia also a possibility the British government decides that the quickest and cheapest way to settle the issue is to make the Republic a protected state. Britain will take care of diplomatic and defence matters with the Republic otherwise being broadly internally independent.

 

[raharris1973]

This is interesting -

I believe the intent of the Republic of Formosa's founders was to stealthily rejoin China. Their independence was a front masking their true objective of reunification.

So they could reunify with Qing China.

But, British intrigue could derail that plan.

Or circumstances could make it so they never get around to it, circumstances like the Boxer Rebellion, or the 1898 shut-down of the Guangxu reforms.

Or the Republican regime could try to be a player in mainland politics after the double-10 revolution of October 1911 that gets rid of the Qing and ushers in the Republic of China.

 

[Simon]

I believe the intent of the Republic of Formosa's founders was to stealthily rejoin China. Their independence was a front masking their true objective of reunification.

Apparently several of the Republic's leaders, as former senior Qing officials, wouldn't have minded. The problems they would have though are that as a state any merger with China would require diplomatic agreements that would fall under Britain's purview giving them an effective veto, and Japan is lurking just across the East China Sea. In this timeline the Republic only managed to avoid annexation via foreign intervention – the Triple Intervention – and some luck, neither of which can counted on a second time. The 'prominent residents' weren't a monolithic block so throw in other events like the Boxer Rebellion and I think it's even money or better that those supporting reunification would be balanced out by those preferring independence.


Looking at the wider picture Japan is going to be absolutely furious. Considering that this was just six or seven years before the Anglo-Japanese alliance is it enough to throw things off course? I'm leaning towards no. It would be France shouldering most of the blame, with Germany and Russia also tainted. Britain might be looked on slightly negatively but they declined to join the Triple Intervention and Japan will still need an alliance to avoid being ganged up on again. The French will be muttering about Perfidious Albion but eventually other than a Gallic shrug I'm not sure it would affect relations much.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

The POD might be the Battle of Baguashan going the other way, including if the leader of Japanese forces, Prince Kitashirakawa Yoshihisa was killed by battery fire before the battle.

 

[Octosteel]

I'm kind of curious if some of the other candidate countries tried going for Taiwan as their protectorate. Or are the French and British probably the only ones realistically? I suppose another thing is the Republic trying to play off all sides, maybe being something like a trial run of the Open China Policy.

 

[Simon]

I'm kind of curious if some of the other candidate countries tried going for Taiwan as their protectorate. Or are the French and British probably the only ones realistically?

My immediate reaction is that it would most likely be Germany, with Russia an outside chance. Mind you Belgium held concessions in China, as did Italy and Austria-Hungary. For Taiwan the need is for either a partner powerful enough to deter future attacks or a partner that has alliances that would between them bring enough military force to bear to deter or secure their independence.

Edit: I forgot that the US had concessions in Shanghai and an unofficial one in Tianjin, their being absorbed into the Shanghai International Settlement and local British concession respectively. It could well suit America's image of themselves to make Taiwan a protectorate.

 

[Octosteel]

My immediate reaction is that it would most likely be Germany, with Russia an outside chance. Mind you Belgium held concessions in China, as did Italy and Austria-Hungary. For Taiwan the need is for either a partner powerful enough to deter future attacks or a partner that has alliances that would between them bring enough military force to bear to deter or secure their independence.

Edit: I forgot that the US had a concessions in Shanghai and an unofficial one in Tianjin, their being absorbed into the Shanghai International Settlement and local British concession respectively. It could well suit American's image of themselves to make Taiwan a protectorate.

Based on a book I'm reading, it seems America did want good relations with China and were suspicious of Japan so maybe if the Qing give them sort of the go ahead we won't hate you if you annex. They might just be too suspicious of the Germans and see them like the French. Russia it's hard to see having force projection for Taiwan nor interests when they're hyper focused on Manchuria and Korea.