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Blair Resigns Several Months Earlier

Simon

Oblivious
Originally posted in the PMQs thread but decided to start a separate one.
A question prompted by Thande's Consequences in AH: How the Scottish Liberal Democrats Caused Brexit thread but if Blair had resigned several months earlier do people think his being gone, a Scottish Prime Minister, and a Scottish Chancellor, would have had enough of an affect to tip the 2007 Scottish Parliament election?
I mean almost anything could have tipped the OTL one because of how close it was - I do think what you describe would have had a substantial impact, partly just because of the brief Brown bounce but also his Scottishness (and a perception, not entirely unfounded, that he was being targeted for this by the English media).
The 2007 Scottish Parliament election took place on the 3rd of May so let's say he resign at the end of March or at least towards the end of April and Brown take the reins essentially unopposed.
 
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