Auto Industry AHs

[Coiler]

Have any of you explored/wanted to examine different PODs and the like in the auto industry? Or how the auto industry is affected by various events in the TLs? I'm an amateur auto industry enthusiast, so I look at it now and then, although the nature of it means that in terms of different dominant players, you need a very early and/or big POD.

I've been toying with the independent American automakers merging earlier from a position of strength instead of their OTL weakness, but the skeptic in me doesn't think they'd end up that different from OTL AMC.

 

[Geordie]

The biggest UK one is probably the BMC-Leyland merger to form British Leyland. It only came about thanks to severe amounts of pressure from the government, and specifically Tony Benn, iirc.

 

[Coiler]

The biggest UK one is probably the BMC-Leyland merger to form British Leyland. It only came about thanks to severe amounts of pressure from the government, and specifically Tony Benn, iirc.

From what I've read (and keep in mind I'm a filthy ignorant Yankee who's just read some car books and websites, particularly AROnline and Chris Cowin's Export Drive), a merger wasn't that unlikely. I can see it happening regardless of government, as the pressures were big and broad.

 

[Coiler]

One morbid recent auto AH of mine is Nissan going to Daimler-Chrysler instead of Renault. That wouldn't be pretty.

 

[Creekmench]

One morbid recent auto AH of mine is Nissan going to Daimler-Chrysler instead of Renault. That wouldn't be pretty.

How so? I'm curious in why you think that would be bad.

 

[Coiler]

How so? I'm curious in why you think that would be bad.

Daimler-Chrysler was notoriously bungled and mismanaged.

 

[von mises]

Assumming you can stand him for long enough, I found Clarkson's Car Years on the British motor industry to be an interesting watch. Avoiding the BMC would appear to be interesting.

 

[Oppo]

One morbid recent auto AH of mine is Nissan going to Daimler-Chrysler instead of Renault. That wouldn't be pretty.

Without the Renault-Nissan becoming the largest automaker, there would be a ton of ripple effects. How much of Nissan would be able to remain pure before the company starts becoming “cheaper Chrysler/Dodge” like Plymouth?

 

[OHC]

I know very little about cars, but I used an auto industry POD in my contribution to that "fix your hometown" collaborative thing over on AH.com - namely George Selden, the patent troll who extracted royalties on every car sold in America until 1911, winning his legal battle with Henry Ford and bankrupting him. I didn't look into the butterflies too deeply because I was focusing on what Selden did with his newly secure money and freedom, but what effect would no Ford have in the long term?

I think the other authors and I just handwaved it with "well the personal car / the assembly line method would take a few more years to become widespread." Is there anything that Ford invented rather than just popularizing and accelerating?

 

[Coiler]

I think the other authors and I just handwaved it with "well the personal car / the assembly line method would take a few more years to become widespread." Is there anything that Ford invented rather than just popularizing and accelerating?

To be fair, in the auto industry it's almost always the one who can market and refine an innovation rather than "introduce" it per se that ends up winning.

 

[von mises]

I've got a couple of ideas for industrial PoDs, but not in the car industry - would it be better to have this as a general industrial PoD thread, or a create another more general thread?

 

[Coiler]

I've got a couple of ideas for industrial PoDs, but not in the car industry - would it be better to have this as a general industrial PoD thread, or a create another more general thread?

They can be here, since car-making is industry and it'd be bound to have a ripple effect somehow.

 

[von mises]

The most obvious big PoD comes probably under Macmillan where instead of funding a steelworks in Llanwern in Newport, they decided to build another one in Ravenscraig in Scotland without increasing funding for it, so neither ended up being viable in the long term - Ravenscraig has shut down, and Llanwern is just a rolling mill. Properly fund either of them and you've got a different British steel industry.

 

[Oppo]

According to Bob Lutz, GM was told by the federal government that they would have to limit their range of cars (Chevrolet, Cadillac, GMC, Buick, Saturn, SAAB, Hummer, and Pontiac) to just Chevrolet and Cadillac. Assuming that the administration at the time would be stricter in the bailout of GM, they'd have a much smaller range to bounce back with. I'd imagine that Buick would go to some Chinese firm (like Rover), while GMC would go to some commercial vehicles company or just be killed off.

Another possible POD from this could be GMC and/or Buick being traded for Pontiac to allow Lutz to implement his ideas for rebuilding the company as a "performance" brand to compete with Dodge. A new G6 was planned on the platform of the Cadillac ATS, and wagon/ute versions of the G8 were about to enter production. With the new Camaro, Pontiac could also produce a new Trans Am (I REMEBER SMOKEY AND THE BANDIT! DO YOU REMEMBER SMOKEY AND THE BANDIT?) and Firebird.

Finally, when British Leyland was being sold off by Thatcher, she wanted Ford to purchase Austin-Morris and General Motors to purchase Land Rover and Leyland Trucks. Thatcher was about to make a deal when she suddenly turned around because of anti-American protests. If the deal was made, it would be interesting to see how the Americans would use the British designs for their own cars and how much of their own designs would remain independent.

 

[Coiler]

A continental European POD that's worthy would be BMW going under. It baaaaaaarely avoided doing so in OTL before the Neue Klass cars saved them. Borgward might survive, but it had a lot of fundamental baggage too, and so you'd probably end-up long term with just Daimler-Benz and Volkswagen.

 

[Simon]

I've toyed around with American Motors Corporation (AMC) in the past, either as simply a surviving company or, thanks to Thomas B. Jeffery buying a factory on the South Side rather than in Kenosha, as a Chicago based automotive company that thrives. It's difficult but doable.

The biggest UK one is probably the BMC-Leyland merger to form British Leyland. It only came about thanks to severe amounts of pressure from the government, and specifically Tony Benn, IIRC.

Yeah. Leyland at the time were very successful so the idea was that they'd take over the failing BMC, infuse it with their success, and help lift it back up. Instead what happened was that BMC dragged Leyland down with it. Ideally they should have taken a more careful look at the books and general conditions before politely, but very firmly, declining the idea of a merger and running away as fast as possible. BMC either collapses, in which case they can pick up the most viable pieces, or it's nationalised and kept on life support similar to our timeline. I did have some notes somewhere for a Leyland that remains independent effectively becoming a British Mercedes-Benz with a successful lorry division, Rover continuing as a high-end/luxury marque to mirror their vehicles, and Triumph positioned similarly to BMW.

One morbid recent auto alternate history of mine is Nissan going to Daimler-Chrysler instead of Renault. That wouldn't be pretty.

Ouch. I actually had them form an alliance with a surviving AMC and Leyland, who either avoided BMC or owned a successful version, creating a triumvirate.

I'd imagine that Buick would go to some Chinese firm...

I've always found it interesting how popular, thanks to a quirk of history, Buick is in China and how different perceptions of various marques are over there compared to Europe or the US.

A continental European POD that's worthy would be BMW going under. It baaaaaaarely avoided doing so in OTL before the Neue Klass cars saved them.

It only just avoided being taken over by Daimler-Benz thanks to Quandt changing his mind at the very last minute, previously having been personally in favour of the sale, and managing to convince the board of directors to postpone the vote until the next scheduled meeting. He used the intervening time period to buy up company stock until he had enough control. Without that change of opinion, or if he can't get the board to wait, then the company disappears with its factories being used to produce Daimler-Benz car bodies.

Borgward might survive, but it had a lot of fundamental baggage too, and so you'd probably end-up long term with just Daimler-Benz and Volkswagen.

They introduced some interesting technolgy and designs but even without the competition I still think they're likely going to have trouble. The man himself looks to have been a skilled engineer with wide-ranging interests, witness the company funding the building of a helicopter, but possibly not the person to run a complicated business - hence the cash flow issues. I can certainly see why some people find the conspiracies theories viable though.

One idea I had for Borgward was BMC to buy them up during their financial troubles to act as their continental production facilities rather than building a new plant in Belgium as they did, I don't have the numbers to hand but when I looked at them some time ago it turned out to be cost neutral or even cheaper. When industrial relations become difficult in the UK plants in the 1970s it allows them to continue to sell in Europe or, like Ford did IIRC, import vehicles, with suitable modifications, back to the UK.

 

[Coiler]

Yeah. Leyland at the time were very successful so the idea was that they'd take over the failing BMC, infuse it with their success, and help lift it back up. Instead what happened was that BMC dragged Leyland down with it. Ideally they should have taken a more careful look at the books and general conditions before politely, but very firmly, declining the idea of a merger and running away as fast as possible. BMC either collapses, in which case they can pick up the most viable pieces, or it's nationalised and kept on life support similar to our timeline. I did have some notes somewhere for a Leyland that remains independent effectively becoming a British Mercedes-Benz with a successful lorry division, Rover continuing as a high-end/luxury marque to mirror their vehicles, and Triumph positioned similarly to BMW.

I've read/heard that the success of Leyland vis a vis BMC at the time of the merger was somewhat artificial and quirky. That is to say, with the economy in a "stop" part of "Stop-go financining", the mass market BMC was hit harder than the more affluent-based Leyland. So it looked better long-term than it actually was.

I'm pessimistic on an independent Leyland thriving. The structural problems with the whole British-owned industry are still there, and it's still smaller.

One idea I had for Borgward was BMC to buy them up during their financial troubles to act as their continental production facilities rather than building a new plant in Belgium as they did, I don't have the numbers to hand but when I looked at them some time ago it turned out to be cost neutral or even cheaper. When industrial relations become difficult in the UK plants in the 1970s it allows them to continue to sell in Europe or, like Ford did IIRC, import vehicles, with suitable modifications, back to the UK.

One of the catalysts for BMC's implosion was De Gaulle's veto of the EEC entry-they had revved up capacity to export the Mini/FWD[1] cars en masse to Europe, which they couldn't sell as competitively thanks to the entry not being approved, which left them with undercapacity and little money, which led to the merger, which led to well, you know... that. My hunch was that hedging by buying up politics-proof, integrated assembly plants on the continent[2] instead could have averted that blow.

The veto was a big part of what knocked the British-owned car industry down, but their internal problems kept them from getting back up, or at least that's my impression from what I've read.

[1]It's a frying pan or fire situation, I've found, where staying with RWD just condemns them to being walloped by later-gen FWD cars when they do appear.
[2]They eventually did, but in classic BLMC style, it turned from an advantage to a weakness when Britain finally did join. Really, the whole saga was just a perfect storm. Plenty of other car companies had bad timing, poor labor relations, poor management, and poor product design, but few had it all compound the way BLMC did.

 

[Dan1988]

Finally, when British Leyland was being sold off by Thatcher, she wanted Ford to purchase Austin-Morris and General Motors to purchase Land Rover and Leyland Trucks. Thatcher was about to make a deal when she suddenly turned around because of anti-American protests. If the deal was made, it would be interesting to see how the Americans would use the British designs for their own cars and how much of their own designs would remain independent.

Now this I haven't heard before. Particularly with an Austin Rover/Ford tie-up, to me at the very beginning it would sound like an Autolatina-like situation with Honda, but whatever. I know some of this would be like yawning without sleeping pills for our British cousins, but to properly examine it let's have a closer look at the vehicles and all that for those of us North Americans who are not that terribly familiar with the Austin Rover range around this time. Now, around ~1984-1985, (so immediately after the death of the Triumph Acclaim and Austin Ambassador), Austin Rover's passenger vehicle range included:
*Mini: but of course
*Austin/MG Metro: pre-Honda model; internal competition with Ford Fiesta
*Austin/MG Maestro: non-Honda model; internal competition with Ford Escort and Sierra
*Austin/MG Montego: non-Honda model and sedan version of Maestro
*Rover 200 Series: ultimately related to the Honda Civic and in Japan was a competitor to the Corolla and the Nissan Laurel Spirit (which was basically an over-dressed Nissan Sunny); potential internal competition with Maestro and Ford Escort
*Rover SD1: towards the end of its life IOTL, when starting in 1986 the 800 Series (read: Honda/Acura Legend) took its place; potential internal competition with Ford Granada

Now, while I can see how there would some use for Austin Rover technology within the non-US Ford model range originating from Europe, I could see some other possibilities here. As one potential butterfly, take for example what would eventually become the Mercosul market (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, for the non-initiated). Having a ready-made range in the Ford Metro, Ford Maestro, and Ford Montego could obviate the need for Ford do Brasil and Ford Argentina to engage with VW, and thus at the same time replace a bunch of Brazilian Ford models. The Maestro and Montego, in particular, could collectively replace the Corcel and Del Rey (though that would leave the Corcel-based Ford Pampa pickup to soldier on). As Ford do Brasil had no models below the Escort at this time (IIRC), the Metro could slot in very well against the VW Gol.

Outside South America, the next question becomes what to do with the existing Austin Rover passenger vehicle range and how it would integrate with Ford. In terms of its bread-and-butter line, the Austin/MG models are a direct competitor to Ford's existing range, which would be more so around 1989/1990, when the Fiesta and Escort are due for either a refresh or replacement.
>Between Fiesta and Metro: Merge the Fiesta and Metro both on the same platform; the Ford Metro becomes the low-cost vehicle (thus OTL's Ka is not needed) while the Fiesta becomes the main vehicle in the range
>Between Escort/Sierra and Maestro: No question here - the Escort and Sierra would remain, while the Maestro would probably be sacrificed except probably in its MG variation as well as in Latin America (and thus serve as the Latin American counterpart to the Ford Laser); what should happen here IMO, consistent with the OTL development of the Mondeo, is another world car platform, which means the MG/Ford Maestro would basically be similar to the Ford Laser and Mazda 323/Protegé.
>Between Orion/Sierra and Montego: Somewhat of a no-brainer to me; for the remainder of the Sierra's life the Montego would be neglected, as with the Maestro, except in MG form and in Latin America; as Ford and Mazda developed the CDW27 platform to serve as a "world car", so too could this be the case here with incorporating parts of the Montego platform. In this configuration, the MG/Ford Montego would basically be similar to the Mazda 626/Ford Telstar and sporty versions of the Mondeo, while the Rover version would be more similar to the Mercury Mystique
>Between Orion and 200 Series: Rover 200 Series becomes upmarket version of Ford Orion
>Between Granada/Scorpio and 800 Series: Take the existing body shell of the Rover 800 and grace that on the Ford Granada/Scorpio (thus no longer needing the latter to survive) around 1994

From there, I could see MG being Ford's sporty brand and Rover fulfilling the same role in the UK as Mercury in North America as an entry-level premium brand as a stepping stone to Jaguar. From there, it would be easy for MG to try to come something close to its original sports-car heritage, even hitting the retro trend with reviving the MGB (as what happened OTL with the RV8) and Midget, since it has the resources both of Ford's performance divisions as well as Mazda. Only the Mini would be exempt and basically be following its own thing. Meanwhile, the other marques inherited with the acquisition of Austin Rover would be more problematic.

One possible thought exercise that solves the "Autolatina problem" in Mercosul while following OTL in retaining MG and Rover as extant marques.

 

[Oppo]

@Dan1988 Good thoughts!

I fell that Rover could be brought to the US given that everyone was obsessed with E U R O P E A N D E S I G N and that the 800 was sold as a Sterling. The SD1 could be kept alive for longer, as its Ferrari-like styling and V8 power could be used as a 5-Series competitor, "four-door muscle car", or a replacement for the LTD. Speaking of the legendary Rover V8, Ford may decide to use the existing engine instead of developing the Modular V8.

MG would also be useful for making a car to take on the Viper and C4 ZR1- an RV8 resold as an "SVT Cobra" would be fantastic and terrifying. By giving FoMoCo a greater performance market in Europe, I could see the Probe becoming the '89 Mustang to expand into new markets.

 

[Dan1988]

In that case, Rover could serve as a substitute to Merkur in North America. However, my thinking with MG is that although it could be used as Ford's sporty brand, at least first and foremost in the UK and Europe MG would be the sales channel for vehicles which would be Ford's equivalent to the Autolatina cars in the Southern Cone and thus, for a while, keep the ex-BL platforms going until they get integrated into the various Ford vehicle platforms. (Much like Pontiac in Canada, in fact, where for a long time it was actually the low-cost family brand with some sporty-esque vehicles on the side.)