The MPs I had in mind were, aside from Corbyn and Long Bailey: Diane Abbott, Tahir Ali, Apsana Begum, Richard Burgon, Dan Carden, John McDonnell, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Zarah Sultana, Sam Tarry, Claudia Webbe and Nadia Whittome.Love it - did you have specific MPs, Lords, & MSPs in mind for the PJP defections or is it more just general numbers?
I'm not sure we'd see Primarolo joining what is essentially the hardcore Corbynites of the SCG in splitting from the party. Instead, might I suggest Christine Blower, Pauline Bryan, or John Hendy?The MPs I had in mind were, aside from Corbyn and Long Bailey: Diane Abbott, Tahir Ali, Apsana Begum, Richard Burgon, Dan Carden, John McDonnell, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Zarah Sultana, Sam Tarry, Claudia Webbe and Nadia Whittome.
Peers are Baronesses Clark and Primarolo. MSPs are Richard Leonard, Alex Rowley and Katy Clark (the Baroness).
Given we don't know the context of how this happens, it's not unreasonable to say it could happen. I mean, the Labour Party leadership could decide to take Mandelson's advice/suggestion/wish of purging the party of the its hard left & trade union links combined with the internal party reforms that Evans wishes to marginalise the membership; it'd certainly put pressure on some to then argue "I didn't leave the Labour Party, the Labour Party left me". But I also can't speak on behalf of @ES1702 who created the work, although I am a fan of it.I really doubt that the party's left (old left, at least) would ever seriously leave, they're too attached to the brand for it.
The Grand Old Man was dead. Vice President Vilsack succeeded him. The new Vice President was Senator Mark Warner. Chaos, yet expected in inner circles. And what did the Republicans decide to do 4 years later in the primaries? Well, they decided to have another brokered convention of course. 2000, 2008, and now 2012. There were seven contenders. Ron Paul, running for the third election in a row, was one of the big faces this time and was considered to actually have a chance this time around. There was Michele Bachmann, the intensely unpopular Vice Presidential nominee to Christine Todd Whitman in 2008, who wanted to galvanise the support of the grass roots Republicans. There was John McCain, the Senator from Arizona trying for the third time after having been dicked from the nomination by Bush in 2000, and then himself playing his part to dick Bush from the nomination in 2008. He had his momentum, but he wasn't expected to do as well as in 2008, and certainly not in 2000; he would be 80 if elected to a second term. There was John Kasich, running for a second time 12 years after his first bid, having come in third place behind Bush and McCain. He had his followers but his bid in 2012 was not entirely expected. There was Jeb Bush, the brother of George W. and son of George H. W, having a go in order to return the Bush family to the White House. George W. Bush was expected to make a fourth consecutive bid for the White House, but decided against it. Bush was one of the front-runners and was expected to do quite well indeed. There was Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, having his second go after having come sixth in 2008, but having won three states. This time, he was one of the two front-runners along with the brother Bush. Then, there was the Crazy Old Man. Born in Tennessee but associated with Georgia, he had briefly made a bid for President in 2000, before dropping out and endorsing Alan Keyes, who came in fifth behind former Vice President Quayle.
It was to moderate surprise that Michele Bachmann won Iowa, but it wasn't a completely unconceived hypothetical. However, it came as a shock when the Crazy Old Man won in New Hampshire, having been polling in single digits. Then, to the horror of the establishment Republicans rooting mainly for Bush but also some for Romney, he began to win the states leading up to Super Tuesday. He actually didn't win on Super Tuesday, But the momentum he achieved from the states that he did win on Super Tuesday was bigger than the momentum won by Romney and Bush. In the end, the primaries came down to three. Jeb, Mitt, and the Crazy Old Man. For the third time in twelve years, it soon became painfully apparent that there was going to be a brokered convention in the Republican Party. When the final delegate count was revealed, it was by far the most fractious of the three. While 2000 had been a 1012-1142 split ending up with Bush winning 1360-1142, and 2008 had been a 609-1111 split ending up with Whitman winning 1269-1111, this time the convention delegates had to endure a three way with the Crazy Old Man, Mitt Romney, and Jeb, with only a couple dozen delegates between them; 743-723-701. COM had a narrow lead of 20 delegates ahead of Romney, and 42 ahead of Bush. Former VP candidate Bachmann released her delegates to COM. Ron Paul gave his delegates to McCain. McCain released his delegates and gave them to Kasich. Kasich, against all expectations, actually gave his delegates, including McCain's released ones, to the delegate leader. The reason for this, however, would become apparent soon enough. The decider now, was Jeb Bush. It now being confirmed that the Bushes would not have a fourth Republican nomination so yet, Bush decided that after a lot of thinking that it would only do harm to the Republicans if they dicked the delegate and popular vote leader out of the nomination three times out of three of the last three times that the Republicans had had a brokered convention.
And so, in the end, Bush gave his delegates to the Crazy Old Man, securing the nomination for him. An absolute rank outsider, he announced that John Kasich would be his running mate. This had been arranged before the convention, but was only announced after the final vote. He had decided to do this to help woo over the establishment-inclined voters in the general election. With another disaster avoided, given the 2008 convention debacle widely being considered to have lost the Republicans the 2008 election in a landslide, the Republicans could take something of a deep breath, with some anxiousness to their nominee's platform and ability to win, and turned to the general election.
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The Crazy Old Man was consistently behind President Vilsack in the polls. It was at one point predicted that the President would win in a landslide similar in strength to that of his predecessor, the Grand Old Man. These kinds of predictions soon ceased as polling stabilised, but the President was consistently in the lead. The Crazy Old Man's campaign was lambasted as simply that; crazy, and the final polls before polling day suggested a three point lead for the incumbent President. If the election had been held in the days and weeks after the Grand Old Man's death, the Crazy Old Man would very likely have been condemned to irrelevancy and sent back to the fringes of the Republican Party. The Crazy Old Man, at worst, saw the opportunity to be something of a Goldwater figure, leading the way for a generation after him to follow in his footsteps in a new era of politics in about twenty years time. It was with this mindset that he found himself in as the returns started coming in.
And then, for the Democrats, shit hit the fan.
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Nobody knew how, but the Crazy Old Man was vastly overperforming expectations. Much, much more than the degree to which Kennedy exceeded expectations in 2004. Florida flipped red for the first time in twelve years. Wisconsin voted red for the first time since 1984. States like Indiana and Ohio came back home to daddy; the latter being helped by Kasich's presence on the ticket. The final result was a rather bizarre map, given trends, but the end result made the Crazy Old Man the President-elect of the United States, and left President Vilsack with a consession speech to give, as the first incumbent Democrat president to lose an election for 36 years. The President-elect was jubilant, but the Democrats were absolutely fuming. Vilsack had won the popular vote by a hundred thousand, and the Crazy Old Man would be entering the White House. Sure, the 2000 election was close, but at least Bush actually won the popular vote. For the first time in 124 years, the popular vote winner had been cheated out of the White House.
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