The concept of tipping points, lock-in, and other decision making models would be a useful one for alternate history discussions. You can't just show up with a history book or even as a modern analyst already knowing all the facts and hope to influence the course of events. We know that because it doesn't work in real life.
History is full of examples of people who knew that something was about to happen but were unable to do anything to change direction. There were months of military buildup prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine but many were still skeptical that Russia would invade. There was a subreddit about the events going on in Wuhan well before they were discussed in the mainstream media, then they were discussed in the media, and people were still surprised. There were people warning that an energy crisis was going to occur prior to 1973 but even if they had been listened to it's not like the situation could have been resolved right then and there (the concept of lock-in is useful in particular for this one, but let's stick to one concept at a time).
So as an example of the tipping point model, imagine the course of history as something like the following illustration of tipping points in climate pathways (
source). The actual thing being depicted doesn't matter, just the general concept as illustrated. You have more options further out from an event and then you get less options as you go down the line. Eventually you are being drug towards a certain outcome.
Another way to visualize the concept just using that illustration would be to view it as instead representing nuclear proliferation, with the left side representing disarmament, the middle side representing a Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty status quo, and the right representing the current pathway which is headed more towards greater proliferation (the bottom right representing full scale global nuclear war).
Suppose you're in one of those settings in which a nuclear war is about to breakout between the major powers but you successfully stop the crisis. That's great, but the wider conditions that led to that much tension and proliferation are likely still there. You haven't derailed the pathway, you've just moved a bit towards the left, and it's quite possible you'll still roll down into global nuclear war. You would need some dramatic event such as Superman grabbing everyone's nuclear weapons and throwing them into the Sun and pledging to vaporize anyone working on a new one to make a dramatic shift from near nuclear war to global disarmament.