Alternate economic miracles

[Bonniecanuck]

Economic miracles have played a major role in shaping the modern world's political and economic institutions, elevating historic economic backwaters like Hong Kong or Taiwan to global prominence in finance and industry, and cementing the smooth recovery of war-ravaged states like Japan and Germany. However, like history, economics does not develop on a linear path, and indeed many of these sudden periods of unprecedented economic growth or development have occurred as a result of circumstance and luck in addition to policy. So what if the money flowed in a few different directions? What are some PODs that could have nipped a budding growth period, or allowed missed opportunities that were instead grounded to take flight?

One such scenario that comes to mind is the possibility of the Philippines being a fifth Asian Tiger as opposed to its current emerging market status, going back to the dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos. Marcos was an extraordinarily nepotistic and kleptocratic dictator even for the standards of the time, evident in his shameless hoarding of the country's wealth for himself and his family and allies - one hardly needs to look further for an example than his wife Imelda's infamous collection of over 1,000 designer and luxury brand shoes. Guinness World Records estimates the total value of the Marcoses' stolen wealth to be somewhere between US$5-10 billion, subsequently bestowing upon the couple the world record of the Greatest Robbery of a Government. That the Filipino economy still grew in spite of this, largely with the help of significant American aid, probably highlights the scope of the legacy left behind by Marcos, and leaves only speculation as to where the Philippines would be without him.

On the other side of the coin, it's very likely Hong Kong and Taiwan wouldn't achieve their economic stature if it weren't for the fall of the Republic of China on the Mainland. The former's utility as a trade and commercial entrepot to the PRC until the 2000s and the latter's development of a burgeoning tech sector backed by USAID were greatly helpful in bringing investments there when they had relatively little beforehand. As much as it can be inferred that strong economic growth would still occur, would a sustained explosive "miracle" be doable with a Republic of China that retained its hold on the Mainland and allowed foreign markets access to the traditional commercial centres like Shanghai rather than Hong Kong or Taipei?

 

[Comisario]

One original idea for dealing with decolonisation in South Yemen back in the 1960s was to split the port of Aden off from the rest of the Federation of South Arabia on a permanent basis. It was, at the time, referred to as the ‘Singapore Plan’ and, even though it refers more to the idea of incorporating a modern city-state into the Commonwealth, I can’t help thinking of Aden as a possible ‘Red Sea Singapore’.

Given reports showed that Aden was considered more economically developed and socially progressive than the rest of the surrounding territory, it isn’t too much of a stretch to think of an economic miracle in an independent city-state in southern Arabia.

 

[Alex Richards]

One original idea for dealing with decolonisation in South Yemen back in the 1960s was to split the port of Aden off from the rest of the Federation of South Arabia on a permanent basis. It was, at the time, referred to as the ‘Singapore Plan’ and, even though it refers more to the idea of incorporating a modern city-state into the Commonwealth, I can’t help thinking of Aden as a possible ‘Red Sea Singapore’.

Given reports showed that Aden was considered more economically developed and socially progressive than the rest of the surrounding territory, it isn’t too much of a stretch to think of an economic miracle in an independent city-state in southern Arabia.

I can at the very least see it ending up as a much earlier proto-Dubai and Sharjah combined. Big regional port that ends up investing in luxury tourism to get the money in.

 

[Bonniecanuck]

One original idea for dealing with decolonisation in South Yemen back in the 1960s was to split the port of Aden off from the rest of the Federation of South Arabia on a permanent basis. It was, at the time, referred to as the ‘Singapore Plan’ and, even though it refers more to the idea of incorporating a modern city-state into the Commonwealth, I can’t help thinking of Aden as a possible ‘Red Sea Singapore’.

Given reports showed that Aden was considered more economically developed and socially progressive than the rest of the surrounding territory, it isn’t too much of a stretch to think of an economic miracle in an independent city-state in southern Arabia.

Not much of a stretch given Aden was governed separate of the rest of Yemen, much like how Singapore remained a British colony until the Malaysia Agreement. If the Colonial Office put similar work in to hold Aden separately rather than have it absorbed into the rest of South Yemen, that could give them more pretext to go for independence. If Aden subsequently received a pipeline and/or got a boost from investment in its port or other facilities, it probably would be well placed to enjoy a sustained boom.

 

[Alex Richards]

I wonder if India without the License Raj might be in a good position to replicate the recent few decades of Chinese growth.

 

[Comisario]

Not much of a stretch given Aden was governed separate of the rest of Yemen, much like how Singapore remained a British colony until the Malaysia Agreement. If the Colonial Office put similar work in to hold Aden separately rather than have it absorbed into the rest of South Yemen, that could give them more pretext to go for independence. If Aden subsequently received a pipeline and/or got a boost from investment in its port or other facilities, it probably would be well placed to enjoy a sustained boom.

Indeed. I think the necessary PoD would be either the Tories being returned in '64 or Harold Wilson choosing someone other than Anthony Greenwood to be Colonial Secretary when forming his government. The direction of travel when it came to Conservative Party thinking on the Aden question was towards this 'Singapore Plan' (keeping the British base there, handing over to local British-aligned interests, and promising to defend the former colony against Nasserites/Marxists/etc.) and I think they'd have been out of the colony by about 1968, which is only a few years ahead of Macmillan's original estimate from the start of the Sixties. If not, then maybe 1970 or 1971 could be a possibility (but that's likely under a Labour government by that point).

Without Greenwood at the Colonial Office, I think the prospect of an Aden city-state is quite high as you'd likely have someone less in-touch with nationalist sentiment and with less commitment to creating a sustainable South Arabian state of some form (where the hinterlands and Aden would be economically and politically linked). Wilson could be quite flexible on the issue, so any remedy that this not!Greenwood secretary of state might come up with will be a welcome one for a government that very quickly became sick and tired of the nationalist terror campaigns.

 

[Bonniecanuck]

I wonder if India without the License Raj might be in a good position to replicate the recent few decades of Chinese growth.

It probably would, but that also assumes that whatever alternative system is instituted, which would still likely have a large role for the state to play, would avoid the same levels of bureaucratic corruption and red tape that contributed to the tepidity of the post-independence economy's growth.