AHC/WI: Earlier Labour split

[AgentRudda]

I was genuinely surprised that it took until 2019 for Labour MPs to en masse quit the party. It seemed inevitable that there was going to be some kind of split in 2018, perhaps the peak of the anti-Semitism crisis. I guess that for this you don't only need political will, but also funding and institutional support, but it's not as if the right of the party were short of any of that. There was always speculation of eager donors willing to threw a few eight-figure cheques around, plus they had good links with established think-tanks for policy and media types for publicity.

I think an obvious break would be pretty much as soon as September 2016, straight after Corbyn's re-election. What would the consequences of this be for both Labour and the new party? Brexit is quite a big issue, how long would it take for this new party to fully abandon "respect the referendum" and back a second referendum?

 

[Nyvis]

Considering how well this went OTL, I can't see this ending in anything except ridicule for them, which will vindicate labour.

 

[Charles EP M.]

It would depend on who splits and who is the leader - we now know Ummunah really didn't have what it takes, so you need someone else. A specifically Labour split is also different to what we got, where Tories went TIG too, so that changes things. The new party can't be dissed by left-wingers as working with the right-wing but also, now you can't say you'll attract the centre-right and you're the Normal Centre Common Sense group. Upside of that is you might have an ideologically consistent group.

But a 2017 election is going to happen anyway (unless Corbyn won't vote for it but he likely will) and might happen quicker, and if the Judean People's Party do badly and the Tories win, even if it's the same crappy win as OTL, they're doomed as a party and blamed for the loss. Unlikely that they'd have enough time to be able to do anything more than lose. The only exception might be if it's a big split, one that sunders the Labour Party and brings over a lot of activists, staff, money etc, and then the Tories may still win but with the People's Party of Judea with more seats than traditional Labour. And then you have a very different next few years of opposition.

 

[Nomad]

I think an obvious break would be pretty much as soon as September 2016, straight after Corbyn's re-election. What would the consequences of this be for both Labour and the new party? Brexit is quite a big issue, how long would it take for this new party to fully abandon "respect the referendum" and back a second referendum?

I think it was unlikely we'd see a split until at least 2017. Up until that year's GE, many Labour right wingers could comfort themselves with the idea that Corbyn's leadership was an aberration that, like Foot's, would end with a bad defeat leading to a period where the party moved back towards the centre. The unexpectedly good result in 2017 called that assumption into question and allowed the left to gain control of the party's internal structures, which made it harder for right wingers to see a way out of their predicament.