AHC: Germany is politically split along Catholic-Protestant lines any time from 1764 to 1950

[raharris1973]

Here's the challenge: Germany is politically split along Catholic-Protestant lines any time from 1764 to 1950. It must be split into two separate sovereignties, they can be centralized or less centralized states, empires, confederations, federations or republics.

Here are some ideas of border lines between the two conforming as closely as possible to religious lines leaving at least 85% and probably 90+% of Germans of each major Christian denomination in their own state.

18th century

Post-Napoleonic




Later 19th century



Post-WWI-ish



Post-WWII-ish

 

[SinghSong]

ITTL, France elects to intervene militarily in the Austro-Prussian War of 1866, as many prominent French figures had advocated for once it became clear that, contrary to pre-war expectations, the Austrians were losing badly to the Prussians. As such, Napoleon III implements an armed mediation consisting in a mobilization and the massing of troops at France's eastern borders while the bulk of the Prussian armies were still engaged in Bohemia, as a warning that no territorial changes could be effected in Germany without consulting France. As such, Bismarck's hopes of making peace with Austria rapidly enough to forestall intervention by France or Russia are dashed, and with continuing the war in hopes of further gains being even less tenable than IOTL, the Prussians are forced to reach a peace agreement on markedly more equal terms.

And in the aftermath, at TTL's Peace of Prague, after the dissolution of the German Confederation as was the case IOTL (with the OTL's treaty having been explicitly excluded Austria from German affairs from then on, and allowed Prussia to create a new Bundesverhältnis in the North of Germany- as well as having allowed the South German states to create their own South German Confederation, which Napoleon III had hoped would be inevitably form and be led by Bavaria, by way of which Germany could be properly 'divided and conquered' and both the Palatinate and Saarland more easil reconquered and annexed; but failed to ever materialize IOTL), TTL's peace agreement instead solely excludes Austria from German affairs north of the River Main, resulting in Prussia's creation of the North German Confederation being paralleled by Austria's creation of its own South German Confederation. This only serves to further ramp up the Austro-Prussian Rivalry, as well as further delaying the Austro-Hungarian Compromise, which in turn is given markedly less priority ITTL.

This also significantly improves relations between Austria and France, to the extent where the South Germans initially choose to remain neutral in TTL's Franco-Prussian War, which is a markedly more hard-fought and closely-contested affair as a result, with French forces being spread far less thinly in the initial defensive phase of the conflict (with OTL's French plans for its main army to invade the Bavarian Palatinate, and proceed to "free" the four South German states in concert with Austro-Hungarian forces, being rendered redundant and wholly counter-productive ITTL with these states already members of Austria's South German Confederation) also being a factor, and drags out into the lengthier war which neutral observers had expected it to become. And after the conclusion of TTL's Franco-Prussian War (regardless of which way it goes, but even more so if Prussia still wins), the alliance which had been proposed in 1868, between France, Italy, and Austria (and by extension, the South German Confederation), is confirmed; even further entrenching the North-South German divide, and Catholicism and Protestantism as markers of North and South Germany's fledgling national identities.

 

[raharris1973]

ITTL, France elects to intervene militarily in the Austro-Prussian War of 1866, as many prominent French figures had advocated for once it became clear that, contrary to pre-war expectations, the Austrians were losing badly to the Prussians. As such, Napoleon III implements an armed mediation consisting in a mobilization and the massing of troops at France's eastern borders while the bulk of the Prussian armies were still engaged in Bohemia, as a warning that no territorial changes could be effected in Germany without consulting France. As such, Bismarck's hopes of making peace with Austria rapidly enough to forestall intervention by France or Russia are dashed, and with continuing the war in hopes of further gains being even less tenable than IOTL, the Prussians are forced to reach a peace agreement on markedly more equal terms.

And in the aftermath, at TTL's Peace of Prague, after the dissolution of the German Confederation as was the case IOTL (with the OTL's treaty having been explicitly excluded Austria from German affairs from then on, and allowed Prussia to create a new Bundesverhältnis in the North of Germany- as well as having allowed the South German states to create their own South German Confederation, which Napoleon III had hoped would be inevitably form and be led by Bavaria, by way of which Germany could be properly 'divided and conquered' and both the Palatinate and Saarland more easil reconquered and annexed; but failed to ever materialize IOTL), TTL's peace agreement instead solely excludes Austria from German affairs north of the River Main, resulting in Prussia's creation of the North German Confederation being paralleled by Austria's creation of its own South German Confederation. This only serves to further ramp up the Austro-Prussian Rivalry, as well as further delaying the Austro-Hungarian Compromise, which in turn is given markedly less priority ITTL.

This also significantly improves relations between Austria and France, to the extent where the South Germans initially choose to remain neutral in TTL's Franco-Prussian War, which is a markedly more hard-fought and closely-contested affair as a result, with French forces being spread far less thinly in the initial defensive phase of the conflict (with OTL's French plans for its main army to invade the Bavarian Palatinate, and proceed to "free" the four South German states in concert with Austro-Hungarian forces, being rendered redundant and wholly counter-productive ITTL with these states already members of Austria's South German Confederation) also being a factor, and drags out into the lengthier war which neutral observers had expected it to become. And after the conclusion of TTL's Franco-Prussian War (regardless of which way it goes, but even more so if Prussia still wins), the alliance which had been proposed in 1868, between France, Italy, and Austria (and by extension, the South German Confederation), is confirmed; even further entrenching the North-South German divide, and Catholicism and Protestantism as markers of North and South Germany's fledgling national identities.

This is a neat scenario for creating a north and south Germany side-by-side. There's a significant cultural difference between north and south, and indeed Catholicism is quite overwhelming in the south. As you can see though if you look at sectarian distribution maps, and the maps I crafted, the actual areas of Protestant and Catholic majority are not so neatly divided along the Main river, with the big Catholic extension in the northwest continuing into Rhineland and most of Westphalia.

 

[SinghSong]

This is a neat scenario for creating a north and south Germany side-by-side. There's a significant cultural difference between north and south, and indeed Catholicism is quite overwhelming in the south. As you can see though if you look at sectarian distribution maps, and the maps I crafted, the actual areas of Protestant and Catholic majority are not so neatly divided along the Main river, with the big Catholic extension in the northwest continuing into Rhineland and most of Westphalia.

Initially, I'd included an extra bit at the end; about the French winning TTL's Franco-Prussian War in alliance with South Germany and Austria, re-liberating the Rhlneland and Westphalia, both the North and South German Confederation's Armies crossing the Main River to liberate certain sections, and having an armistice reached after the Russians threaten to enter the war on Prussia's side with the front lines almost perfectly along the Protestant-Catholic majority divides. But then I decided not to, because OTL's examples of ROI/NI and India/Pakistan show that you don't need the divides at the time of partition to be anywhere near perfectly drawn.

Just engender enough enmity between them, along with a situation where religious sectarian tensions, violence and propaganda's almost guaranteed to set off a feedback loop, and the actual areas of Protestant and Catholic majorities in North and South Germany respectively, will wind up conforming to the respective countries' borders within the space of a decade or two at most. So long as the divide's 'close enough', and the religious divide's deemed as a(/the) primary marker of both fledgling nations' national identities, it'll work; Human movement, conversions, and TTL's German 'Partition Riots' in concert with their equivalent of 'The Troubles', causing people to flee across the borders, will do the rest.