As the title suggests, with a POD anytime after the end of WW1, is it possible for France to go Communist without direct foreign imposition or intervention? If so, how is this most likely to occur? Could it come as a result of the elections in the aftermath of WW2, the events of May 1968 or something else entirely?
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AHC: Communist France
- Thread starter Venocara
- Start date
Are we counting "party is backed by the USSR" as a direct intervention or indirect?
Are we counting "party is backed by the USSR" as a direct intervention or indirect?
That would be indirect; direct would be more like an invader installing the regime, or something like the Soviet-occupied states in Eastern Europe, or something like the US-instigated regime changes in Central America.
Ricardolindo
Well-known member
- Location
- Portugal
As the title suggests, with a POD anytime after the end of WW1, is it possible for France to go Communist without direct foreign imposition or intervention? If so, how is this most likely to occur? Could it come as a result of the elections in the aftermath of WW2, the events of May 1968 or something else entirely?
It is very hard by elections. Even at their peak in November 1946, the PCF only won 28% of the vote. The 1968 French presidential and legislative elections showed an anti-communist silent majority.
I think the easiest way to get there is bad reaction to a coalition where communism is a factor but not the sole member which cause the more moderate allies to rally to the project to defend themselves.
Points at which it could happen include the interwar popular front and the SFIO-PCF alliance immediately post WW2. Neither were likely to build communism if left alone but give them a push like a failed coup attempt and I could see them being pushed towards actually taking power.
They both have the problem of the PCF already being hollowed out by Stalinist leadership of the comintern though, which means chances of ending like Spain with conflicting orders that pull apart their coalition are quite high. But it's not as dire as post Hungary/Czechoslovakia, which made it much harder to have a soviet aligned communist party work with anyone else.
68 is difficult because by then the PCF wasn't just taking orders from Moscow at the top, it had also stopped getting new blood and sclerosed due to the same control's lasting damage. You'd need the protests to unfold quite differently to rally the OTL PCF to them in a winning way, let alone have them snowball into majority support. Bad handling by the cops could do it, potentially.
Of course it's also possible to go for a different leadership of the PCF or even the non soviet aligned communists having a better time of things before 68. OTL, Trotskyists tried entryism in the SFIO, and for a while it also contained a lot of independent communists who didn't fit in the PCF. That strategy didn't really pan out and doomed them to playing second fiddle to moderate socialists, but I could see things going differently and France ending up with something like Spain's POUM, as an alliance of left and right opposition to the soviet line. The PCF being toxic as a coalition partner and the whole third force positioning of the SFIO makes a coalition forcing things to a head post Hungary quite difficult though. And an earlier Eurocommunist turn is also unlikely due to the very strong control the soviet aligned PCF leadership had over the party.
Another avenue of realignment on the left which could lead to the conditions for revolution could come from the radical unions. OTL, the CGT split with the CGT-FO forming out of those who refused alignment with the PCF. Some of that was general anticommunism but some of that was also objection to the "no strikes when the PCF is in government coalition" doctrine. The former is unlikely to convince the rest of the CGT but I could see the latter being enough to scupper alignment, which also avert the split. Which in turn means more room for non soviet aligned communists in the French left without the most active wing of the labour movement welded to the party. An united CGT trying to assert itself independently would be a very strong force in French politics and if it's dictating terms to the PCF instead of following them, it's probably more likely to be able to lead the charge on a crisis than the internally decaying PCF.
Something people haven't mentioned could be a different Algerian war end. Without De Gaulle to sell the right on pulling out, France could sink deeper into that quagmire with the left wisening up to the need to oppose it as the death toll mounts. That probably prompts a coup attempt (even De Gaulle couldn't avoid one), and if it goes further than the OTL one that's probably enough to radicalize a left wing coalition. General strike as a response also means the CGT can be the face of it which makes it easier to rally to than the PCF initially.
Points at which it could happen include the interwar popular front and the SFIO-PCF alliance immediately post WW2. Neither were likely to build communism if left alone but give them a push like a failed coup attempt and I could see them being pushed towards actually taking power.
They both have the problem of the PCF already being hollowed out by Stalinist leadership of the comintern though, which means chances of ending like Spain with conflicting orders that pull apart their coalition are quite high. But it's not as dire as post Hungary/Czechoslovakia, which made it much harder to have a soviet aligned communist party work with anyone else.
68 is difficult because by then the PCF wasn't just taking orders from Moscow at the top, it had also stopped getting new blood and sclerosed due to the same control's lasting damage. You'd need the protests to unfold quite differently to rally the OTL PCF to them in a winning way, let alone have them snowball into majority support. Bad handling by the cops could do it, potentially.
Of course it's also possible to go for a different leadership of the PCF or even the non soviet aligned communists having a better time of things before 68. OTL, Trotskyists tried entryism in the SFIO, and for a while it also contained a lot of independent communists who didn't fit in the PCF. That strategy didn't really pan out and doomed them to playing second fiddle to moderate socialists, but I could see things going differently and France ending up with something like Spain's POUM, as an alliance of left and right opposition to the soviet line. The PCF being toxic as a coalition partner and the whole third force positioning of the SFIO makes a coalition forcing things to a head post Hungary quite difficult though. And an earlier Eurocommunist turn is also unlikely due to the very strong control the soviet aligned PCF leadership had over the party.
Another avenue of realignment on the left which could lead to the conditions for revolution could come from the radical unions. OTL, the CGT split with the CGT-FO forming out of those who refused alignment with the PCF. Some of that was general anticommunism but some of that was also objection to the "no strikes when the PCF is in government coalition" doctrine. The former is unlikely to convince the rest of the CGT but I could see the latter being enough to scupper alignment, which also avert the split. Which in turn means more room for non soviet aligned communists in the French left without the most active wing of the labour movement welded to the party. An united CGT trying to assert itself independently would be a very strong force in French politics and if it's dictating terms to the PCF instead of following them, it's probably more likely to be able to lead the charge on a crisis than the internally decaying PCF.
Something people haven't mentioned could be a different Algerian war end. Without De Gaulle to sell the right on pulling out, France could sink deeper into that quagmire with the left wisening up to the need to oppose it as the death toll mounts. That probably prompts a coup attempt (even De Gaulle couldn't avoid one), and if it goes further than the OTL one that's probably enough to radicalize a left wing coalition. General strike as a response also means the CGT can be the face of it which makes it easier to rally to than the PCF initially.