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Having read about Bartle Frere in passing, one thing that struck me was the idea that him and Lord Carnarvon were so gung-ho about pushing for federation in South Africa because the latter had been involved with federation in Canada.
While it must have happened to some extent in the past, it is quite mind-blowing how the British Empire was probably the grandest experiment in "this worked in such-and-such area, we should do it everywhere because reasons, what do you mean those areas are totally different". Speaking as someone who was once in charge of implementing a module everywhere based solely on the fact that Engineering had done it and management liked it... but using the same ideas for running different continents takes it to a whole other level.Yeah, you see this all the time in primary sources. It worked in Canada so it must work here.
Never mind that Canada had both much more white people as a percentage of the population and much more english speakers as a percentage of white people.
Frere's own background had been in India during and after the mutiny which is why disarming the natives was such a priority of his.
While it must have happened to some extent in the past, it is quite mind-blowing how the British Empire was probably the grandest experiment in "this worked in such-and-such area, we should do it everywhere because reasons, what do you mean those areas are totally different". Speaking as someone who was once in charge of implementing a module everywhere based solely on the fact that Engineering had done it and management liked it... but using the same ideas for running different continents takes it to a whole other level.
We were still trying to do the same thing post WW2: see the Central African Federation and the West Indies Federation.
The modern spider web of security and economic relationships and unstable history across a lot of the pacific and Caribbean and the relative longevity of the Commonwealth or indirect colonial influence does seem to hint that a lot of smaller island nations can't really function as what we'd hold a modern state to be but at the same time have little desire to be ruled by someone else and the someone else rarely capable of making a good job of it.Tbf, the WIF was much more 'god, I hate having to deal with all these little islands and their tin pot leaders, lets make that Jamaica's problem instead' than an actual attempt to try to create a working country.
It's one of those things where you can imagine some other TL thinking their way is the only natural state of affairs, when it isn't - e.g. thinking that it'd be obviously ridiculous for Greece/Indonesia/the Philippines to all be under one government rather than based on individual islands or groups of islands - or, conversely, it also being ridiculous that the Pacific consists of multiple groups of small islands comprising at least mostly semi-viable nation states.The modern spider web of security and economic relationships and unstable history across a lot of the pacific and Caribbean and the relative longevity of the Commonwealth or indirect colonial influence does seem to hint that a lot of smaller island nations can't really function as what we'd hold a modern state to be but at the same time have little desire to be ruled by someone else and the someone else rarely capable of making a good job of it.
You kind of get the feeling that the more natural state of affairs would be a bunch of loose federations but real life history has kind of made that unworkable so its done by proxy instead after the actual attempts of it ended in tears.
It's one of those things where you can imagine some other TL thinking their way is the only natural state of affairs, when it isn't - e.g. thinking that it'd be obviously ridiculous for Greece/Indonesia/the Philippines to all be under one government rather than based on individual islands or groups of islands - or, conversely, it also being ridiculous that the Pacific consists of multiple groups of small islands comprising at least mostly semi-viable nation states.
It's one of those things where you can imagine some other TL thinking their way is the only natural state of affairs, when it isn't - e.g. thinking that it'd be obviously ridiculous for Greece/Indonesia/the Philippines to all be under one government rather than based on individual islands or groups of islands - or, conversely, it also being ridiculous that the Pacific consists of multiple groups of small islands comprising at least mostly semi-viable nation states.
I mean for most of history that was the case in all of those places. They are became unified because if imperialism.
A lot of Indonesia had been united before in the past by Srivijaya and Majapahit (especially the latter), though of course that's also unification through imperialism (Javanese in the latter case) - but then, wasn't every country united by imperialism at some point, just not necessarily the 1800s sort?I mean for most of history that was the case in all of those places. They became unified because of imperialism.
I’ve seen it argued before that these previous unifications are why Indonesia has stayed united despite its diversity, and that these empires never included islands east of Sumbawa is why that region has always been troublesome. Feels a bit too straightforward to me, but I think there is some truth to the idea that those empires helped create links and a sort of common culture across the islands.A lot of Indonesia had been united before in the past by Srivijaya and Majapahit (especially the latter), though of course that's also unification through imperialism (Javanese in the latter case) - but then, wasn't every country united by imperialism at some point, just not necessarily the 1800s sort?
Honestly, it feels like "but then the British/French/Italian/etc. colonial officer in charge reneged on the treaty" features at least three times an article and they never face more than a frowning of the eyebrows at their causing untold misery and losses.
Given OTL South African history, I think it makes less sense for the extreme Afrikaner nationalists' plans to make more senseVery interesting.
Having read about Bartle Frere in passing, one thing that struck me was the idea that him and Lord Carnarvon were so gung-ho about pushing for federation in South Africa because the latter had been involved with federation in Canada. And that was pushed for mainly because of the American Civil War.
So, in a TL where the US Civil War is somehow avoided or is over quickly etc. etc., would one unexpected corollary be that the push to unite the British possessions and native kingdoms in southern Africa doesn't happen? There had already been attempts at it (as indeed there had been in Canada) but until then there hadn't been the needed backing and drive from the British government towards that goal.
To bring it back to the pun in the title, tinfoil hat theory, maybe that's the actual reason why Turtledove's Afrikaners were trying to interfere in the US Civil War - to prevent Britain pushing for South African federation and preserve Boer independence. Makes a tad more sense than "lol we'll just assume history goes exactly the same as OTL but apartheid South Africa in the 1980s will have a fellow racist country ally now".