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Africa During the Scramble: Company Rule

The "bigger history of strong centralized empires" and talk of the failed attempts to subdue it before made me think of the tantalizing longshot: It becoming a "Southern Ethiopia" which can uparm and successfully resist the Europeans.

The people who know more about it than I could undoubtedly poke a million holes in that claim, but I can still imagine (esp. for a soft story) the right combination of skill and luck enabling lightning to strike.
 
The "bigger history of strong centralized empires" and talk of the failed attempts to subdue it before made me think of the tantalizing longshot: It becoming a "Southern Ethiopia" which can uparm and successfully resist the Europeans.

The people who know more about it than I could undoubtedly poke a million holes in that claim, but I can still imagine (esp. for a soft story) the right combination of skill and luck enabling lightning to strike.

Honestly, Colin, I don't think this is that unreasonable.

Like the short version of 'why ethiopia?' is they were included in the area of an influence of a weak European power who botched the diplomacy by arming then, then botched a war and then gave up.

If we sketch out a timeline. Rhodes is off the table for whatever reason, he doesn't come to Africa, he doesn't become rich. Nobody then offers to fund British advancement in that area, which without Rhodes they wouldn't. So when Germany recognises Portuguese control over Zimbabwe and Zambia in the mid 1880s, Britain follows up with their own recognition.

Portugal then makes a deal with Lobengula, who wants to make a deal hence why he made one with Rhodes, as part of that Portugal start selling him weapons or allowing weapons to be sold through their claimed land which they often did in that area.

So now on all the maps the Matabele are coloured in Portuguese but they don't consider themselves conquered. Eventually there is a centralising kick in Lisbon, someone attacks the Matabele and the portuguese lose like the british did at Islandlawana. Only the portuguese, always operating on a shoe string compared to the other colonisers, don't have the man power to recover and agree peace.

Zimbabwe is then recognised as independent.

I don't think that's super likely, like you say it involves the Matabele rolling sixes, but I can buy that, especially as a soft AH story.

There is of course the argument that a pagan zulu style militarised society ruling over foreign peasantry is far less stable and likely to be accepted by Europe than a centralised Christian state. And that's possibly true, though I think the affect of Ethiopia's Christianity is somewhat over stated. Luckily it's quite easy to get a christian shona state.

Mwenemutapa Negomo Chirisamhuru of the Kingdom of Mutapa coverted to christianity in 1561 as part of a proxy war between muslim arabs and catholic merchants. He however then renounced that under pressure form the muslims later in 1561 which led to the 'Accidental Crusade' of 1568 and the Mutapa defeating the portuguese then. A few changes there, Mutapa emerges as a christian Portuguese ally and then the murder of a bunch of butterflies and we're back at scenario one.
 
Rhodes is off the table for whatever reason, he doesn't come to Africa, he doesn't become rich. Nobody then offers to fund British advancement in that area, which without Rhodes they wouldn't.
These articles have some great examples of how, no matter how much we may criticise the Great Man theory of history, there's always a counterexample.
 
Also shout out for another African state desperately trying to save its independence and ancient liberties by going off to kill a bunch of other Africans because the Europeans have too many guns on call.

The Scramble really does seem a polite and not inaccurate but somewhat understated description of giant self reinforcing clusterfuck ratrace of everyone trying to conquer or murder their way out of being surrounded by stronger or potentially stronger powers by conquering even weaker ones which in turn destabilizes the situation even more provoking more European intervention or weakening all parties until the Europeans have a much easier time finding allies or crushing everyone.
 
Also shout out for another African state desperately trying to save its independence and ancient liberties by going off to kill a bunch of other Africans because the Europeans have too many guns on call.

The Scramble really does seem a polite and not inaccurate but somewhat understated description of giant self reinforcing clusterfuck ratrace of everyone trying to conquer or murder their way out of being surrounded by stronger or potentially stronger powers by conquering even weaker ones which in turn destabilizes the situation even more provoking more European intervention or weakening all parties until the Europeans have a much easier time finding allies or crushing everyone.

I've said on here before, but like if you had a mind control device and in 1880, you made every African polity ally with each other, the Scramble would have been an African victory.

The vast majority of European armies were black and recruited from allied nations in Africa who viewed the local African Empire as the bigger threat and only found out too late they weren't.

Like the Swazi team up with the British to crush the Bapedi, the Fante help the British defeat the Ashanti, the sokoto can't send their entire armies against the British because Rabih is threatening them, the Dahomey were weakened by Porto Novo supporting the French, Samori's biggest mistake was attacking the Kénédougou during a truce with France, the Rif lost so many men they couldn't afford to through civil war over centralisation, the Germans got a foothold in South West Africa due to wars between the Herero and Nama, the Mahdists throw away an alliance with Ethiopia and etc etc.

Just again and again, that lack of unity costs Africa. And like I get why that happens, I don't think it's realistic for it not to and I don't blame anyone in Ghana or Benin for seeing Ashanti and Dahomey as the obvious main threat, but yeah it opens huge doors for the Europeans.
 
I've said on here before, but like if you had a mind control device and in 1880, you made every African polity ally with each other, the Scramble would have been an African victory.

The vast majority of European armies were black and recruited from allied nations in Africa who viewed the local African Empire as the bigger threat and only found out too late they weren't.

Like the Swazi team up with the British to crush the Bapedi, the Fante help the British defeat the Ashanti, the sokoto can't send their entire armies against the British because Rabih is threatening them, the Dahomey were weakened by Porto Novo supporting the French, Samori's biggest mistake was attacking the Kénédougou during a truce with France, the Rif lost so many men they couldn't afford to through civil war over centralisation, the Germans got a foothold in South West Africa due to wars between the Herero and Nama, the Mahdists throw away an alliance with Ethiopia and etc etc.

Just again and again, that lack of unity costs Africa. And like I get why that happens, I don't think it's realistic for it not to and I don't blame anyone in Ghana or Benin for seeing Ashanti and Dahomey as the obvious main threat, but yeah it opens huge doors for the Europeans.
And of course much the same could be said for the Native American Indians, the Indian Indians and indeed Europe itself in the Thirty Years' War.
 
I've said on here before, but like if you had a mind control device and in 1880, you made every African polity ally with each other, the Scramble would have been an African victory.

The vast majority of European armies were black and recruited from allied nations in Africa who viewed the local African Empire as the bigger threat and only found out too late they weren't.

Like the Swazi team up with the British to crush the Bapedi, the Fante help the British defeat the Ashanti, the sokoto can't send their entire armies against the British because Rabih is threatening them, the Dahomey were weakened by Porto Novo supporting the French, Samori's biggest mistake was attacking the Kénédougou during a truce with France, the Rif lost so many men they couldn't afford to through civil war over centralisation, the Germans got a foothold in South West Africa due to wars between the Herero and Nama, the Mahdists throw away an alliance with Ethiopia and etc etc.

Just again and again, that lack of unity costs Africa. And like I get why that happens, I don't think it's realistic for it not to and I don't blame anyone in Ghana or Benin for seeing Ashanti and Dahomey as the obvious main threat, but yeah it opens huge doors for the Europeans.
I guess it comes back to Africa being a continent not a country does it really matter to the people on the ground what color the people killing and enslaving them and obliterating their states is?

Since more or less the whole place ended up conquered and that got tied into attitudes towards race and culture across the world from people who very much felt both were threatened by the hegemony it just becomes natural to assume that everyone should have banded together against a common enemy...ignoring that is what they did, the common enemy being whichever tribe or kingdom they were at war with.
 
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And of course much the same could be said for the Native American Indians, the Indian Indians and indeed Europe itself in the Thirty Years' War.
The Irish, the Scots, the Anglo Saxons, the French, the Chinese, the...

I think its a pet peeve of mine in fiction that as soon as the protagonists enemies show up the moral of the story is that the people fighting each other for centuries should team up against the obviously bigger threat.



I think it was "Da Boom Crew" of all cheap and messy early 2000 cartoon shows that played with that indirectly when the protagonists grabbed the Mguffin which was causing earthquakes and the people who helped them were pissed off because they'd thought the adventure was to stop the people who kidnapped an entire generation for use as slaves and prisoners, not messing about with bullshit science that was an inconvenience.
 
From reading the article it would seem no fewer sixes than those rolled by Rhodes and the BSAC did OTL.
To quote the man himself - "Never forget that, having been born an Englishman, you have won first prize in the lottery of life."

Didn't think he meant it that literally, though.
 
I've said on here before, but like if you had a mind control device and in 1880, you made every African polity ally with each other, the Scramble would have been an African victory.

The vast majority of European armies were black and recruited from allied nations in Africa who viewed the local African Empire as the bigger threat and only found out too late they weren't.

Like the Swazi team up with the British to crush the Bapedi, the Fante help the British defeat the Ashanti, the sokoto can't send their entire armies against the British because Rabih is threatening them, the Dahomey were weakened by Porto Novo supporting the French, Samori's biggest mistake was attacking the Kénédougou during a truce with France, the Rif lost so many men they couldn't afford to through civil war over centralisation, the Germans got a foothold in South West Africa due to wars between the Herero and Nama, the Mahdists throw away an alliance with Ethiopia and etc etc.

Just again and again, that lack of unity costs Africa. And like I get why that happens, I don't think it's realistic for it not to and I don't blame anyone in Ghana or Benin for seeing Ashanti and Dahomey as the obvious main threat, but yeah it opens huge doors for the Europeans.

Doesn't this also mirror how it went in central America, with everyone seizing upon the occasion to dethrone the hegemon and only belatedly realizing the Spanish were the real threat?

I expect the same would have happened to Europe if a superior power (or really a few in competition with each other) had shown up.
 
There's a precolonial step before the Ndebele arrival: the Rozvi state had been substantially destabilized already Zwangendaba and Maseko's group, who had left Zululand shortly before Mzilikazi, but came directly to the Zimbabwe highveld. After several years of fighting they left and crossed the Zambezi, with Maseko settling in Malawi and Zwangendaba on the shores of Lake Victoria-Mwanza. However, a small group remained behind under Nyamazana, eventually won the war and she killed Changamire (king) Chirisamhuru.

So when Mzilikazi finally arrived, the Rozvi state was largely destroyed. Mzilikazi married Nyamazana and attempted to vassalize the exiled Rozvi successor Tohwechipi, but when the latter didn't work out, he never really established control over eastern Zimbabwe. In fact Lobengula went on to recognise the Mutirikwe River in central Masvingo Province as a sphere of influence boundary with Soshangane of Gaza. The lack of a strong central army was why Rhodes went first to Mashonaland and only later fought Lobengula.

So that gives 2 potential divergences:

1. Nyamazana goes with Zwangendaba and the Rozvi state is still strong when Mzilikazi arrives. That could go either way, but could end up with two centralized states in Zimbabwe by Rhodes' time. Plus Soshangane.

2. Towechipi accepts vassalage and by the time of Rhodes there is only one strong state, covering all of Zimbabwe except the southeast corner
 
Apologies, got too excited and started writing my own thing

The article is great and am enjoying it
 
I expect the same would have happened to Europe if a superior power (or really a few in competition with each other) had shown up.
As I said, the Thirty Years War proves this is the case, only it was other European powers getting involved with the divided German lands, but the same thing would've happened if they had been outside powers from other parts of the world.
 
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