• Hi Guest!

    The costs of running this forum are covered by Sea Lion Press. If you'd like to help support the company and the forum, visit patreon.com/sealionpress

1988: the Lib Dems and Continuity SDP go bankrupt

Y

Yokai Man

Well-known member
@Time Enough @AH Layard

What it says on the tin. Basically,what would happen if the Lib Dems and Continuity SDP actually do declare bankruptcy like it nearly happened in 1988?

Beyond the obvious (Lib Dems lose more seats in 1992 and Paddy is couped and replaced with Kennedy),I have calculated and this would help the Tories a lot,not just in winning more seats from the Lib Dems and keeping most of their seats that they lost in 1992 OTL but also gaining a couple more and even knocking out some big names.

Based on what I have gathered data wise,if the votes go from the Lib Dems to the Tories in this scenario,Red Ken,Bryan,Paddy Tipping,Austin Mitchell,Jack Cunningham and Straw would lose their seats to the Tories.

Not only that but Chris Patten gets to keep his seat,which means he gets to be Chancellor and aid Major more strongly,as well as giving more confidence in himself than OTL.

Hard to say what a more strong Major and Patten would do tho-if anyone has an idea,let me know.
 
Yokai Man said:
Based on what I have gathered data wise,if the votes go from the Lib Dems to the Tories in this scenario,Red Ken,Bryan,Paddy Tipping,Austin Mitchell,Jack Cunningham and Straw would lose their seats to the Tories.
Click to expand...
How so? Livingstone, Gould, and Mitchell all won more than 50% of the vote in 1992, and with Cunningham and Straw the Conservatives would need to win nearly all 1992 Lib Dem voters (Tipping is about half).
 
Edmund said:
How so? Livingstone, Gould, and Mitchell all won more than 50% of the vote in 1992, and with Cunningham and Straw the Conservatives would need to win nearly all 1992 Lib Dem voters (Tipping is about half).
Click to expand...
Oh I know but the idea is: due to lacking funds,the Lib Dems decide not putting any candidates in places they know they can't win.

Coupled with the polls being slighty better for Labour,one could theoretically imagine a scenario where thd people above don't campaign as hard and the Tories win by the narrowest margins.
 
I believe Sainsbury was an initial benefactor of the continuity SDP, so if they manage to outlast the LibDems then they probably gain any possible benefactors. I get the sense that British politics would probably not descend into a two party state that easily.
 
Time Enough said:
I believe Sainsbury was an initial benefactor of the continuity SDP, so if they manage to outlast the LibDems then they probably gain any possible benefactors. I get the sense that British politics would probably not descend into a two party state that easily.
Click to expand...
Oh of course not-the Lib Dems still keep 10 seats.

Their rise however is slightly slowed. The Tories have less to worry about in the South and Middle of England for a while.

Another thing to note is the SNP gains 2 seats as a result and could also win Smith's seat in a by-election,which could create panic in SLab and thus try to reform themselves a little.
 
Yeah, I think that the Liberals will survive in some form albeit with less resources and structure.

One wonders whether the Greens would receive a boost, they did very well OTL in the 1990 European elections. But I think that was before the Icke saga.
 
AH Layard said:
Yeah, I think that the Liberals will survive in some form albeit with less resources and structure.

One wonders whether the Greens would receive a boost, they did very well OTL in the 1990 European elections. But I think that was before the Icke saga.
Click to expand...
Oh,you'd need a later PoD for that,like the Liberals dying in '50/'51.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top