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1814: if the Polish-Saxon Crisis had lead to War


Well-known member
Published by SLP
A first impulse might be to point out that everyone was tired of war by 1814 and quick enough to compromise after the secret Treaty of Vienna was leaked, but this is an alternate history forum, so let’s indulge in a counter-factual for a bit.

Assume Napoleon has died of illness or been moved to the South Atlantic already.

The Berlin-Moscow Axis wants Poland and Saxony. France, Britain and Austria oppose this. Talleyrand works in the shadows. The minor powers are being duped by Talleyrand. Murat is in Naples, Eugene in Munich, the rest in France, the Army not having been purged, yet.

Everyone’s exhausted and resentful, but refuse to budge after two decades of this shit.

Prussia and Russia presented a joint plan to improve their position: Austria and Prussia would renounce any claims to Polish territory, with a new state established under Russian influence. In return, Prussia would receive most of Saxony.[3]

This was opposed by Austria and Britain, together with some of the minor powers, since they viewed this expansion as a threat to the balance of power. Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord was concerned at the creation of a Prussia whose size would threaten both France and Austria, but also saw an opportunity to end French diplomatic isolation. It allowed him to position France as a supporter of legitimacy by claiming that ignoring the sovereign rights of Frederick Augustus I of Saxony would create a dangerous precedent.[4]

In November 1814, Alexander's brother Grand Duke Konstantin left Vienna for Warsaw, Prussian generals returned to Berlin, while Austria moved troops into Galicia. Soon after, the Russian military commander in Saxony, Nikolai Repnin-Volkonsky, handed the Prussians control of the civil administration, incorrectly claiming it had been approved by Austria and Britain
The three powers signed on 3 January 1815, agreeing to respond to an attack on any party with a field army of at least 120,000 infantry and 30,000 cavalry.
So, for the sake of argument, let us imagine that cooler heads do not prevail, and as such Russia and Prussia see to force the issue. Instead of a Seventh Coalition, we have London, Vienna and Paris seeking to maintain the balance of power and Central Europe’s borders.

Charles EP M.

Well-known member
Published by SLP
I'm assuming here Prussia and Russia are in the better position to carry things out, so they'll probably seize the land they want in the short term. Also noting this bit at the article:

In signing, Castlereagh exceeded his mandate from the British cabinet, which required him to avoid any further war, but he did not expect it to end in conflict.[6]
so is Britain going to want to stick the war out, especially a war alongside France? (In short term, again, because a long-term Prussian and Russian dominance in Europe is going to be something Britain won't be too happy with)