Spain in the Axis: what next?

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Gibraltar is fucked, which cuts off the Western Med for the British.

They're definitely going to take Gibraltar, the airfield is within range of small arms fire from the Spanish mainland and the water supply is extremely vulnerable

I think Gibraltar will last longer than you think, especially as it can be resupplied by sea, the Spanish navy will last about a week, and if the Royal Navy can shell Genoa & La Spezia and just lose one Swordfish, Algeciras and La Linea aren't going to last very long.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

After all, Spain being nearly bankrupt after the Civil War is the main reason why Franco didn’t join the Axis in the war-he just couldn’t afford it.

Spain was massively in debt to Nazi Germany and Italy, and the 47,000 troops Franco sent to the Ostfront were part of that debt.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Hitler could choose to postpone Barbarossa in favor of focusing in the aforementioned area

Is he likely to do that? Invading the USSR and making it a giant graveyard for German colonists was one of his key aims

 

[Ricardolindo]

Afterall,Spain being nearly bankrupt after the Civil War is the main reason why Franco didn’t join the Axis in the war-he just couldn’t afford it.

Again, though, Mussolini's chaffeur said Franco did want to join and was sad that negotiations had not been successful.

 

[Yokai Man]

Again, though, Mussolini's chaffeur said Franco did want to join and was sad that negotiations had not been successful.

I feel you but that doesn’t make any less of a bad decision.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Hitler could choose to postpone Barbarossa in favor of focusing in the aforementioned area.

Tell me you haven't read Mein Kampf or any biography of Hitler without telling me you haven't Mein Kampf or any biography of Hitler.

 

[Death's Companion]

Again, though, Mussolini's chaffeur said Franco did want to join and was sad that negotiations had not been successful.

In the nicest possible way it was a common view then and I believe now that Franco went into those negotiations deliberately setting his demands so high that it would have to be the Germans and Italians refusing him rather than him refusing to help. I'm sure he was publicly devastated things did not go right.

 

[Ricardolindo]

In the nicest possible way it was a common view then and I believe now that Franco went into those negotiations deliberately setting his demands so high that it would have to be the Germans and Italians refusing him rather than him refusing to help. I'm sure he publicly devastated things did not go right.

Why did you say "In the nicest possible way"?

 

[Mumby]

Thing I see is that if Franco does join the Axis, its entirely plausible for him to flip - and I think the WAllies might even be quite keen on it. Especially the Americans.

Getting Spain to flip opens up a second front in Europe without having to fire a shot - comparable to Operation Torch and the co-option of Vichy figures like Darlan to secure Algeria. But also, it makes the Americans' preferred objective in France all that more likely - the defection of the Vichy regime to the Allies

I know that sounds whack but there was a lot of people in Vichy who believed they were just biding their time before they could turnaround and stab Germany in the back.

That obviously has massive consequences post-war. An American backed contingent of right-wing authoritarian regimes in Western Europe for one.

 

[Torten]

I think Gibraltar will last longer than you think, especially as it can be resupplied by sea, the Spanish navy will last about a week, and if the Royal Navy can shell Genoa & La Spezia and just lose one Swordfish, Algeciras and La Linea aren't going to last very long.

Gibraltar will hold until the Germans get some heavy artillery and start blasting the place to the ground, and secure air superiority over the approaches so the Royal Navy can only resupply with extreme difficulty. It might hold for 1-2 months.

Depending on when the Spanish enter the war, the British are more likely to place a greater importance on holding onto Crete, Malta and Cyrenaica as the Western Mediterrenean is going to be a Axis lake- getting submarines through the strait was challenging for the Germans, and the British won't find it much easier. I'm not sure Malta could be supplied if Crete or Cyrenaica are both lost.

And if British lose Gibraltar, then OTL Operation Torch is nearly impossible - so invading Spain, with or without Portugal involved is likely to be the only viable option - especially if it opens up the western Med again.

 

[lerk]

An American backed contingent of right-wing authoritarian regimes in Western Europe for one.

So on both sides of the Iron Curtain there is authoritarianism. I wonder if the remaining democratic states, like those in Scandinavia, might be prompted to become a part of the non-aligned movement as a result.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Again, though, Mussolini's chaffeur said Franco did want to join and was sad that negotiations had not been successful.

Not sure I trust a chauffeur to be party to the thought processes of a leader of state tbh.

 

[RyanF]

Not sure I trust a chauffeur to be party to the thought processes of a leader of state tbh.

Much like I wouldn't trust a leader of state to drive me anywhere.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Much like I wouldn't trust a leader of state to drive me anywhere.

"You'll never guess who I had in the back of me panzer the other day"

 

[Ricardolindo]

Not sure I trust a chauffeur to be party to the thought processes of a leader of state tbh.

He said in his diary that Franco told Mussolini that.

 

[napoleon IV]

He said in his diary that Franco told Mussolini that.

And as we all know Franco would never lie to Mussolini.

 

[Charles EP M.]

And if British lose Gibraltar, then OTL Operation Torch is nearly impossible - so invading Spain, with or without Portugal involved is likely to be the only viable option - especially if it opens up the western Med again.

So a short-term gain and long-term pain for Spain

 

[Death's Companion]

Why did you say "In the nicest possible way"?

Because Mussolini's chauffer is probably not the most reliable source on Franco's intentions when Franco is actively schmoozing the hell out of his boss whilst committing to nothing.

The common take is Franco was well aware Spain was fucked economically and would gain little from the war whilst the Allies were growing increasingly powerful and threatening and so Franco took care to keep the Axis sweet but always asked for more than they could plausibly give as a means of stalling until it was certain who was going to win the war.

 

[Death's Companion]

I think ultimately the time when Spain might join the Axis is probably late 1940 when it seems the Germans are about to win everything and Franco gets caught up in the excitement and wants a bit of French Morocco or something. But I don't think he particularly wanted French Morocco at least not enough to pay anything for it.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

Gibraltar will hold until the Germans get some heavy artillery and start blasting the place to the ground, and secure air superiority over the approaches so the Royal Navy can only resupply with extreme difficulty.

Given the feeble and outdated nature of the Ejercito del Aire in 1940-2, and the number of Portuguese air bases the RAF can use, that Axis air superiority may be a long time coming.