Merry Christmas Mr. Sánchez
List of Prime Ministers of Spain:
2011 - 2017: Mariano Rajoy (PP)
2011 (Majority) def: Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba (PSOE), Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida (CiU), Cayo Lara (IU), Iñaki Antiguëdad (Amaiur), Rosé Diez (UPyD)
2011-15: Same as OTL.
2015: Victory by Greek Minister of Finance Varoufakis against the Troika, leads to resignation of German Minister of Finance Schäuble and President of the ECB Draghi. Greek effort leads to increased attention for other Mediterranean left-wing parties, and leads to uptick in Podemos’ poll numbers.
2015: Heated exchange between Podemos PM candidate Iglesias, and Deputy PM Saénz de Santamariá of the PP becomes standout moment of second election debate, as Iglesias was chosen by 54.1% of El País readers as winner of the debate, and PM Rajoy received both internal and external criticism for not attending the debate himself.
2015: PSOE candidate Sánchez invited to final election debate, despite polling in third place. Iglesias again chosen as winner of the debate, making it 3/3.
2015: Mariano Rajoy attacked by 17-year old. Incident widely believed to be a false flag attack after revelation that assailant was a family member of Rajoy’s wife.
2015: Camera recording of meeting between Rajoy and German Chancellor Merkel at the European Council reveals that Rajoy stated to Merkel that there is a decent chance that Podemos may form a left-wing government, with Merkel answering by expressing that they “cannot have another Greece on their hand”.
2015 (No Government Formed): Pablo Iglesias (Podemos), Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Albert Rivera (C’s), Gabriel Rufian (ERC-CatSí), Francesc Homs (DiL)
2015: Rajoy’s PP finishes first, but loses majority in parliament, and books lowest vote percentage in its history. Newly found Podemos finishes in second, though still slightly underperforms polls, and has theoretically the easiest road to successful investiture with backing from third-placed PSOE, and left-wing regionalist parties. C’s finish with less votes and MPs than expected, though do have opportunity to play kingmaker, if Iglesias wishes to go with Podemos-SPOE-C’s agreement over making deals with regionalist parties, though Albert Rivera quickly comes out, and states that his party will not make any deal with Podemos, and instead favors a PP minority government.
2015: Pablo Iglesias unveils proposed cabinet with PSOE, which includes Sánchez as Deputy PM responsible for the economy, as well as outlining his party’s ‘red-lines’, which included allowing to Catalonia to hold a self-determination referendum. Many members of the PSOE reacted with outrage, though party leader Sánchez only criticizes Iglesias for not consulting with him before making his proposal public, and does not comment on any of Iglesias’ proposals.
2015: PP leader Rajoy proposes a Grand Coalition with the PSOE, though this is immediately rejected by Pedro Sánchez, which leads to further criticism from regional PSOE leaders, led by Andalusian President Susana Díaz, who were increasingly worried that Sánchez would agree to a deal with Podemos.
2015: Several regional PSOE leaders propose that the party should allow the PP to form government, though Sánchez refuses.
2015: Díaz announces to her allies that she will challenge Sánchez for the party’s leadership.
2016: In a win for Díaz’ faction, PSOE members vote to hold no talks with Podemos, as long as it does not remove it’s red line on the Catalan question.
2016: Pressure from the PP, Podemos, and C’s towards Sánchez increases, as the former two routinely criticize him, while the latter proposes a three-way Grand Coalition between PP-PSOE-C’s.
2016: New corruption scandals shock the PP, as Industry Minister José Manuel Soria, Deputy PM Soraya Saénz de Santamaría, and Valencia Mayor Rita Barberá are all forced to resign. Scandal temporarily strengthens Sánchez’ position, who seeks a new deal with C’s leader Rivera.
2016: Albert Rivera mediates meeting between PP and PSOE, and convinces them to vote for former Lehendakari Patxi López of the PSOE as new President of the Congress. Deal between the PP, PSOE, and C’s seems immident.
2016: Rajoy withdraws his nomination by the King for an investiture vote, after stating that he has enough reason to believe that Podemos and Sánchez forged a secret deal, despite both parties rejecting this. Move seen cynically, as an attempt by the PP to widen the conflict within the PSOE.
2016: King Felipe VI controversially opts to nominate Pedro Sánchez over Pablo Iglesias as Prime Ministerial candidate after C’s leader Albert Rivera convinced him that a PSOE-C’s deal was imminent, and they’d be able to convince the PP to support it.
2016: Sánchez starts by proposing talks with Podemos, though Iglesias rejects to hold them, due to him being skipped over by the King. Several Podemos bigwigs publicly criticize Iglesias, hinting at splits within the party. Move seen by Spanish right as largely an attempt to pressure the PP and C’s into an agreement more favorable to the PSOE.
2016: PSOE and C’s formally enter talks, and quickly gain support from various regionalist parties in the Canaries and Basque nation, though Catalan parties refuse to enter talks over PSOE’s opposition to a Catalan independence referendum.
2016: Podemos makes clear they will not deliver support to a PSOE-C’s deal by abstaining on the investiture vote, while the PP remains silent, though PM Rajoy is overheard telling British PM Boris Johnson that he expects that new elections will be held.
2016: Mariano Rajoy announces that the PP will not support the PSOE-C’s agreement in any way, leading to the proposed coalition not going to an investiture vote. Rivera publicly criticizes Rajoy, though quickly walks back, and states that he hopes the three parties can reach an agreement to keep the populist Podemos out.
2016: Sánchez announces that he was not able to form a government, and tells the King that he should nominate Iglesias, so Podemos also has a chance to attempt to form a government.
2016: Susana Díaz’ rebellion is temporarily put on hold, as Podemos, SPOE, and C’s enter into a three-way negotiation for an “Independent and forward-thinking new government”.
2016: Pedro Sánchez tries to keep his party in constant coalition talks, in order to thwart off an inner party coup by the Díaz-led regional leaders, with the SPOE entering Grand Coalition talks after the Podemos-SPOE-C’s talks went nowhere.
2016: These talks similarly deliver no results, and Sánchez goes back to Podemos to discuss a distinctly left-wing party, though quickly pulls back after Iglesias insists on Podemos’ “red lines”.
2016: Relations between Rajoy and Rivera fully break down after the former calls the latter “irrelevant”, and expressing that the C’s have no place in a PP-PSOE agreement.
2016: Pedro Sánchez attempts to broker talks between the PP and Podemos for an “Alternative Grand Coalition”, though Rajoy refuses to entertain the idea. Following this attempt, Sánchez gives a fiery televised speech where he criticizes the other three parties for putting party above country. The speech is well received, and the PSOE’s polling numbers temporarily shoot up enough that Susana Díaz puts any rebellion on hold until after the impending next election.
2016: Albert Rivera attempts to get the King to nominate him, but neither the PP, nor PSOE want to enter talks again, and new elections are announced.
2016: President of the Eurogroup and Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem attempts to up pressure the Spanish parliament to enter talks, so a possible future Podemos government will not ‘pull a Varoufakis’.
2016: An attempt by the four parties to reach a gentleman’s agreement to cut spending during the campaign fails.
2016: Alberto Rivera announces that the C’s won’t enter talks with the PP, as long as Rajoy is its leader, as well as stating that talks with the PSOE must start from the beginning again.
2016: Podemos enters an electoral alliance with the IU, and other leftist parties, under the names Unidos Podemos (UP).
2016: Susana Díaz refuses to attend the PSOE’s nomination profess of Pedro Sánchez, proving that relations between the two were still far from healed.
2016: UP holds biggest election rally in Spanish history on fifth anniversary of 15-M Movement.
2016: C’s are forced to remove controversial election posters that portray Pablo Iglesias as Joseph Stalin.
2016: Rajoy and Iglesias’ final debate criticized by much of the Spanish public due to its harshness.
2016: Conservative UK Government votes to hold a referendum on British withdrawal from the EU. PM Rajoy states that Unidos Podemos wants to do the same, though Iglesias rejects this.
2016 (Minority Coalition wih C’s + PSOE abstentions) def. Pablo Iglesias (Unidos Podemos), Pedro Sánchez [later replaced by Susana Díaz] (PSOE), Alberto Rivera (C’s), Gabriel Rufián (ERC-CatSí), Andoni Ortuzar (EAJ-PNV)
2016: UP seen as main winners of election, as they are the only major party to make gains in parliament, while also nearly defeating PP for first place in the popular vote. PSOE seen as main losers of the election, with increasing talks of ‘PASOKification’. C’s also seen as losers, due to some of its voters backing Rajoy’s PP to stop UP from becoming the biggest. PP only faced minor losses, though still in a difficult place to form a government. Hypothetical Unidos Podemos-PSOE agreement no longer in need of regionalist parties.
2016: Sánchez asks King Felipe VI to nominate Iglesias first due to the left-wing majority in parliament, though is rejected, with Rajoy once again nominated first. Sánchez’ move seen as an attempt to forge a deal with UP, so the rebels can’t iverthrow him.
2016: Rajoy asks for support from the C’s, and abstention by the PSOE, so be can form a minority government. Proposal sees positive reactions from Díaz led rebels, who are now supported by former PM Felipe González.
2016: Sánchez continues calls against abstention, while regionalist parties also mostly turn against Rajoy.
2016: En Comú Podem elected President of the Congress of Deputies, after backing of UP, PSOE, and several regionalist parties, though several PSOE parliamentarians abstained.
2016: PP and C’s enter government talks after Rajoy accepts C’s proposal of term limits for the prime minister.
2016: First investiture vote for Rajoy fails, as Sánchez manages to keep all PSOE members in the ‘No’ camp.
2016: Agreement between PP and C’s nearly falls apart, as Rivera suggests PP should nominate “a more acceptable candidate”.
2016: Regionalist- and Unidos Podemos affiliated parties are main winners of Galician and Basque regional elections, further weakening the PP, PSOE (especially Sánchez’), and C’s positions.
2016: Pedro Sánchez is overthrown by party rebels, and replaced by Andalusian President Susana Díaz, who is more open to talks with Rajoy and the PP.
2016: Move welcomed by PP and C’s, while Unidas Podemos accuses Díaz and allies of ignoring the people’s will. Radio silence from Sánches…
2016: Susana Díaz formerly enters talks with PP, and invites the C’s as well.
2016: Three-party agreement formed after tense negotiations where PSOE will vote to abstain in investiture vote for PP-C’s coalition government.
2016: PCS (Catalan sister party of PSOE) states it will vote against Rajoy, despite the agreement.
2016: Several rebels, including former leader Pedro Sánchez attempt to coalesce enough votes to stop Rajoy from passing investiture vote.
2016: Party leadership threatens rebels with expulsion from party, though this only bolsters their numbers.
2016: Pedro Sánchez resigns one day before the investiture vote from parliament.
2016: Rajoy survives vote, and PP-C’s Minority government is sworn in.
2016: PSOE rebels are thrown out the party. Faction led by Margarita Robles joins Unidos Podemos, making it the biggest party in parliament, with PCS also officially affiliating with Unidos Podemos now.
2016: In an exclusive interview, Pedro Sánchez accuses a shadowy group led by Susana Díaz, “financial interests”, and El País of threatening him to not form a left-wing government with (Unidos) Podemos.
2017: Sánchez announces candidacy in upcoming PSOE leadership election, and calls for supporters to (re)join the party.
2017: Podemos-led motion of no confidence against PM Rajoy fails, despite some PSOE members voting in favor, after Sánchez called in favor of it.
2017: Pedro Sánchez defeats Susana Díaz by a 52-47 vote, and becomes party leader again.
2017: Illegal independence referendum in Catalonia won by “Yes” campaign, after opponents boycotted it.
2017: Despite opposition from Madrid, Catalan parliament votes for independence.
2017: Several Catalan government officials detained, while President Puigdemont flees to Belgium.
2017: Start of wide-scale protests across Catalonia.
2017: New developments in Gürtel scandals lead to Sánchez strongly hinting at supporting motion of no confidence against Rajoy, who expresses that such a move would not be ‘legal’ under the state of crisis in Catalonia.
2017: 11 protesters and 1 policeman die after stampede due to attempts by Spanish police to block protesters from entering the Catalan parliament building. European public increasingly turns against Spanish nation, while Basque government announces ‘solidarity’ vote with Catalan people.
2017: Motion of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy passes. Although officially based on corruption charges, motion is fast tracked due to Rajoy’s harsh crackdowns worsening Spain’s standing in Europe, with both the Flemish and Russian parliament exploring options to support Puidgemont’s illegitimate government. Catalan parties vote to abstain due to Iglesias’ refusal to state whether he supports Catalonia’s right to self-determination, and Sánchez’ opposition to the referendum.
2017 - 0000: Pablo Iglesias (Unidos Podemos)
2017: UP-PSOE government formed with Pedro Sánchez functioning as both Deputy PM and Minister of Finance.
2017: Catalan regional elections won by pro-Independence parties. PM Iglesias promises that he will enter negotiations with Catalan independence movement leaders to resolve issue.
2018: Puigdemont returns to Spain after Minister of Justice Mónica Oltra guaranteed that he would not be arrested.
2018: All Catalan elites involved in the failed independence attempt are pardoned.
2018: Catalan leaders walk back their statements of an independent Catalan Republic, after reaching a secret deal with PM Iglesias, who promised that if he were to be re-elected he would use his office to guarantee that a future Catalan Independence referendum will be recognized by the Spanish courts. The PSOE takes a more conciliatory tone
2019: Pablo Iglesias announces new elections after polling shows UP consistently in first place, while C’s seemed to have overtaken PP as the main force of the centre-right.
I know it can get a bit confusing, but that was kind of the point.