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WI: Attila marries Honoria

TheIO

HE WILL ATTEND CABINET
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Attila, leader of the Huns, and one of the most famous of the "barbarian" leaders who invaded and ravaged the Western Roman Empire in the 400s. But unlike the Visigoths and Vandals, he did not reach Rome itself.

However, he had a marriage proposal from the then-emperor's sister. Honoria, sister of Valentinian III, wanting to escape a forced marriage, reportedly sent Attila a plea for help and an engagement ring, and Attila interpreted this as a formal offer of marriage and used this as justification to claim half of the remaining Empire as his dowry.
In the end, however, he didn't marry Honoria - he lost at the Catalaunian Fields after invading Gaul, invaded northern Italy, turned back before reaching Rome and then died during his wedding feast to a Gothic lady as a result of internal bleeding.

So let's assume that Honoria's proposal is genuine, that she manages to escape her brother's custody, and her and Attila marry. Reportedly, her brother was convinced to exile rather than execute her when he discovered her "proposal", so assuming he did in fact do so, this is our divergence point - and this happens as Attila is invading Gaul. And critically, we assume that he survives the wedding.

What next? In addition to his coalition of willing and unwilling Germanic and steppe allies, he is now married to a Roman princess. Does he still try and settle for half the remaining empire (which at this point in time is peninsular Italy, half of Gaul, and bits of Spain) and make a Hunnic home in Gaul? Does actually marrying a princess instead convince him to push directly for Rome itself instead of turning back? And does having a royal marriage actually get him any material support if he's not on the Capitoline?
 
It wouldn't change much how the events would first unfold : the invasion of Gaul was essentially a mean for Attila to take territories he claimed as a "dowry" for this marriage, and he would pretty much still needs to defeat Aetius' coalition, so we'd be back at a "WI : Attila wins the Battle of the Catalaunian Fields" except this time he still have a really good hostage when it comes to negotiations.

And that's pretty much Honoria brought to Atilla : her hand would have never legally gave him a dowry (the imperial fisc isn't a personal property to be divided along "normal" inheritance rights) but, as it happened with a lot of marriages between the imperial dynasty and barbarians (whether federates as Ataulf with Placidia or romanized as Stilicho and Serana) or even betwenn roman generals and barbarian royal daughters (as Aetius with Pelagia) served to both "bind" oneself to a ruling family, to attempt using imperial/royal networks for legitimation, "premium access" in dealings or subsides, for prestige or even as trying to stabilize trough familial relationship.

Imagining that Honoria isn't just treated as an effective hostage and that her marriage is acknowledged by Ravenna (unlikely IMO, to say the least), the Hunnic king would pretty much have a *diplomatic* and legitimizing advantage.
 
It wouldn't change much how the events would first unfold : the invasion of Gaul was essentially a mean for Attila to take territories he claimed as a "dowry" for this marriage, and he would pretty much still needs to defeat Aetius' coalition, so we'd be back at a "WI : Attila wins the Battle of the Catalaunian Fields" except this time he still have a really good hostage when it comes to negotiations.

And that's pretty much Honoria brought to Atilla : her hand would have never legally gave him a dowry (the imperial fisc isn't a personal property to be divided along "normal" inheritance rights) but, as it happened with a lot of marriages between the imperial dynasty and barbarians (whether federates as Ataulf with Placidia or romanized as Stilicho and Serana) or even betwenn roman generals and barbarian royal daughters (as Aetius with Pelagia) served to both "bind" oneself to a ruling family, to attempt using imperial/royal networks for legitimation, "premium access" in dealings or subsides, for prestige or even as trying to stabilize trough familial relationship.

Imagining that Honoria isn't just treated as an effective hostage and that her marriage is acknowledged by Ravenna (unlikely IMO, to say the least), the Hunnic king would pretty much have a *diplomatic* and legitimizing advantage.
Getting it acknowledged by Ravenna - or Rome for that matter - without having to bring the Hunnic army to its gates is unlikely, given what Valentinian III was like. But it would be a motivating factor for Attila to commit to staying in Italy rather than retreating as he did OTL, and legitimising that marriage plus an accompanying gift of lands to be foederati in could make a suitable inducement for him to not sack Rome, for example.
 
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Getting it acknowledged by Ravenna - or Rome for that matter -
It actually begs an interesting question : altough Ravenna and Rome are -politically- synonymous by then, it wouldn't be implausible to see Attila musing about proclaiming a rival emperor. Maybe not for setting him up on the throne (especially not as promoting a random senator would pretty much nullify the whole point) but at least as a means to pressure Ravenna (pretty much as Alaric did some decades before).

But it would be a motivating factor for Attila to commit to staying in Italy rather than retreating as he did OTL,

In 452, Attilla had essentially *won* IOTL as Valentinian was forced to negotiate a costly peace that included the obligation for the emperor to give his sister in marriage to the Hunnic king. So that's pretty much a given to me that, in a similar campaign and already having Honoria, Attilla would have his marriage acknowledged if things happens pretty much as they did.

I could arguably see more titles and subsides coming in, but Attilla's army remaining in Italy seems difficult in 452 giving a seemingly difficult situation in the peninsula (epidemic and/or starvation) all the while an eastern Roman army was coming in.

The question remains, still, what happened to Attilla once his marriage with Honoria is acknowledged and as he doesn't die in 453.

I wouldn't see a foederatus as necessarily obvious, in the sense of Huns being granted a set of land (or rather, the usufruct of 1/3 of the land) of a region and an effective political control over a territory as Goths or Burgundians. Attila's power resided mostly on his military capacity and namely the coalition he led. The risk of overextension and diminished control over clients was real enough as such (as illustrated by what happened after his death) especially as his list of ennemies was already quite long at this point and as they proved they were ready to ally to each other. Eventually Huns (under Valamer) only searched for a foedus in the 460's IOTL.

On the other hand, benefiting from a de facto military control and organized fiscal plunder (and thus redistributing capabilities)? It's definitely something I could see happening. To quote Hyun Jim Kim (about Kithans, paralleling them with Huns) :

The Huns Rome and the Birth of Europe page 73 said:
What is notable is the fact that the Khitans, even when they possessed military superiority over the Chinese, did not make the absorption of Chinese territory their primary goal. As Standen correctly points out, the Khitan rulers behaved in China like the steppe potentates that they were and focused their efforts on forcing the Chinese to recognize their suzerainty and overlordship.

Of course a periodically raided over Roman Empire in the 450's will certainly have consequences for the remaining of the Vth century.
 
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Very soft AH, obviously, but this scenario makes me wonder about the possibility of the Huns (or a later group amalgamated with other tribes/nations, but with them still leading/"first among equals") building on Attila's marriage to Honoria to establish a dynasty that eventually takes in most or all of the (pre-5th century) Western Empire, a la the Manchu/Qing in China.
 
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In 452, Attilla had essentially *won* IOTL as Valentinian was forced to negotiate a costly peace that included the obligation for the emperor to give his sister in marriage to the Hunnic king. So that's pretty much a given to me that, in a similar campaign and already having Honoria, Attilla would have his marriage acknowledged if things happens pretty much as they did.

I could arguably see more titles and subsides coming in, but Attilla's army remaining in Italy seems difficult in 452 giving a seemingly difficult situation in the peninsula (epidemic and/or starvation) all the while an eastern Roman army was coming in.

The question remains, still, what happened to Attilla once his marriage with Honoria is acknowledged and as he doesn't die in 453.
Of course, if Attila actually has Honoria wed at the end of 452, instead of OTL where she was promised to him but never actually delivered, that might affect his decision making in 453 (presuming that everything from 450 onwards is unchanged). He'll still have an ERE army on his Pannonian doorstep and a lot of truculent vassals, but he'll be the brother-in-law of the (Western) Emperor. Might make reinstating tribute from the ERE a tad easier now that he's got that nominal legitimacy, but the reasoning for why Emperor Marcian stopped paying tribute - i.e. that it wasn't actually going to deter Attila from invading the Balkans if he felt like it - is still there.
 
but he'll be the brother-in-law of the (Western) Emperor.
The benefit marrying in imperial family at a point where emperors have the lifespan normally the lot of the small bugs buzzing above a pond might not be that of a long-term benefit. More seriously, such marriages made in much less duress as with Stilicho never prevented a quick negative reaction. It rather should be seen, IMO, as a negotiation benefit and something to be put on the political balance than something really cementing anything.

but the reasoning for why Emperor Marcian stopped paying tribute - i.e. that it wasn't actually going to deter Attila from invading the Balkans if he felt like it - is still there.
In late Roman mindset, treaties with barbarians at least implied a power imbalance and a "service" given by Barbarians. It mostly became a political fiction by the mid-Vth century in Western Europe (albeit one that was maintained by federated kings and not just for show), but not in the Eastern part as Constantinople was much less dependent on barbarian goodwill.

Theodosius basically paied tribute because there were too much fronts to be dealt with (even refusing to pay the tribute at some point) and to stall against further raids. Marcian, or rather Aspar in all likeness, quite possibly had a more Balkanic re-focus (as hostilities with Sassanians were relatively rare) and elected not to feed Huns (that were already pretty much built up from being used as mercenaries against Goths), something Atilla couldn't do much without fully committing against the ERE, something that wouldn't necessarily have worked giving the relatively tactical stalemate in early 450's with WRE.
It'd be pretty much unlikely IMO that Constantinople would feel any kind of doubt wheter paying tribute to Atilla because an (now unrelated, dynastically) emperor got humiliated.

We sometimes think of Atilla's power as "imperial" but it'd be maybe more accurate to think of it as military, hegemonic and structurally fragile although pretty much well held together by his victories, skills and charisma.
 
Marrying into the (current and not necessarily long-lasting) Imperial family was not seen within the Roman elite as having any potential Imperial possibilities for a 'barbarian' non-Roman in the C5th. Even marrying into the fairly long-lasting one of the capable if harshly orthodox Christian persecutor Theodosius 'the Great' ( d 395 aged only 47 so a good subject for 'What Ifs' where he lasts longer) did no favours for the Visigothic leader of 411-16, Athaulf the younger brother and successor of Rome's 410 sacker Alaric. He forcibly married the daughter of Theodosius and half-sister of current, incompetent Western emperor Honorius , Galla Placidia - who Alaric had carried off from Rome as a hostage after the 410 sack - in 415, at that point had a fairly strong German army led by his Goths, ruled a regime set up by his migrating army/ tribal group in NE Spain and SW Gaul based on Barcelona, and was said to have aimed idealistically at a fusion of Romans and Goths as symbolised by the marriage. The recovering Western Roman govt and army, now headed in effect by Honorius' new strongman general Flavius Constantius, continued to make war on him and he had no major Roman backing, and he was soon assassinated in his stables by a rival of his family in a personal blood-feud; his heir Wallia then faced FC's army and settled for a peace-treaty whereby he handed Galla Placidia back and became Roman 'foederatus' vassal-king of Aquitaine. FC then married GP himself - and they were the parents of Valentinian III, who succeeded Honorius as a small boy in 423/5 (a usurper ruled Italy immediately after H died in 423 and was removed by the Eastern Roman army in 425) under GP's regency.

Given Attila's reputation for bloodthirstiness and extortion as well as the fact that the Huns were not even Christian unlike the ('heretic' Arian) Goths in the 450s, Attila - or a son of his by Honoria - would have been even less acceptable as a potential Roman ruler or strongman in his wife's or son's name in the 450s or 460s, and as far as is known his main interest in Honoria was as a political addition to his ability to meddle in Roman affairs and extort money and land. (When the Eastern empire's chief minister tried to get rid of him by bribing potential assassins in 448, and this was discovered, Attila did not exact bloody revenge except on the plotters and in stead forced the embarrassed Eastern envoys sent to negotiate to offer him a huge pay-off which he accepted; he was far more cool-headed than his reputation suggests.) He might well have tried to demand Gaul as a new home for his people, given its fertility and usefulness for his cavalry and his pastoral nomad tribes, and/or another huge pay-off as the 'bride-price'; and if this was refused, which was likely given the reaction of the local Roman and Gothic elites there who had the military power to defy any orders to give in by the weak Western govt, we get an equivalent of the 451 invasion and battle. If Valentinian tries to give in to Attila, no doubt against the advice of his military supremo Aetius who had past experience and many friends in Gaul from campaigning there, we probably get an earlier version of the OTL clash between V and Aetius in 454, when Aetius was supposed by jealous, genuinely alarmed, or lying courtiers to be after V's throne (V had no son) for his own teenage son and V murdered him. Aetius' allies then murdered V in reprisal. Does Aetius overthrow Valentinian, who was not much good at political or military matters, and take over the West as a far more competent and probably successful leader - and with his Gothic allies' help defeat Attila, stave off the Vandals in N Africa with Eastern naval help, and set up a more successful dynasty in a smaller but viable Western empire? (The rule of Aetius and his family after 455 is one of my own main Roman survival PODs in my Alt Hist of Rome books.)

Attila could have moved into N Italy from Pannonia (W Hungary) to put pressure on the Western Empire to accept his terms, either with Honoria as his wife after she ran away to his court or in order to get a treaty signed giving her formally to him plus a dowry of provinces (a slightly altered version of OTL 452), and then stayed longer to keep the Western regime in fear of him and to see that the terms were carried out - and used the plains of what is now E Lombardy to feed his horses and settle a body of Hunnic or allied warriors as 'foederati' within Roman Italy. But he could not stay too long in Italy himself, even if there was no plague to make withdrawal safer (as probably occurred in OTL 452), in case of revolt by his own subject tribes in the middle Danube basin -which the Eastern empire would probably stir up. If Valentinian gave in to his demands, he might well face removal by Aetius and a mixed Romano-Gothic 'hard line' faction, then war with both East and West of the Roman world. The previous attempt by a major 'barbarian' warlord with a war-ready army to blackmail the West into accepting him as a leading figure in its regime had been Alaric the Goth in 408-10, who had been intimidating the militarily weak Honorius after a purge of the Western army (involving the killing of ex-regent and half-German commander in chief Stilicho in 408) had left the West without a viable army leadership to resist the Goths; this ended with Alaric getting fed up with Roman double-dealing and setting up his own puppet emperor, renegade senator Attalus, and sacking Rome. The idea was for Alaric then to rule behind the scenes as commander in chief of the army (magister utriusque militiae), as Stilicho had done for Honorius when H was a boy. Attila could try to do the same, but would then face either an escaped Aetius or one of his generals (eg Aegidius, later ruler of NW Gaul, or future OTL emperor Majorian) plus the Goths and Romans in Gaul/ Spain invading Italy, or else an Eastern invasion. Given that he had to hold onto his own huge overlordship in central Europe (more of a personal leadership by fear/ force than an 'empire' as not institutional) and his Huns were unused to the Mediterranean climate, Attila would probably have had to collect his loot and retreat to the Danube or face defeat, which would be aided by disease and defections.

In this era of personal command and establishing power by charisma and luck/ skill among the Roman and non-Roman leaders, with cultural identities and army/ tribal membership fluid, the potential for an unexpected - if lucky - leader to emerge as founder of a long-term 'state' is immense; my own favourite is for a repeat of the Roman 'personal leadership reverses so called inevitable decline' carried out by the mid-C3rd Roman emperors, eg Claudius II 268-70, Aurelian 370-75, Probus 276-82, Diocletian and Maximian 284-305, and Constantine 306- 337. The Empire, even the weaker West, had the advantages of a long-lasting institutional and cultural/ economic basis for stability , despite the huge problems of a feuding, often petty-minded elite and the tax-dodging, selfish rich (lessons for the present day UK??) . So this gives major assets to a luckier Flavius Constantius, leader of the post-410 Roman revival (d 421, probably in his forties), Aetius, or Majorian in rallying the Western empire - and Aetius had lived among the Huns as a young exile in the 420s and had the talent to lead Goths as well as Romans vs Attila in 451, so he has the best potential in this.
 
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