raharris1973
Well-known member
What if the US reacted more more harshly to the Lusitania sinking (8 May, 1915) and the torpedoing of the SS Gulflight (1 May, 1915) in May 1915?
So President Wilson asks Congress for a declaration of war by 20 May, 1915....
....
....
Just kidding. That would have been ridiculous. If you think about it, it would have been ludicrously disproportionate to commit the nation to war to Germany immediately because of the Lusitania (non-US-ship) crossfire and drowning casualties, and fatalities from the torpedoing (but not sinking) of the American SS Gulflight in British waters in spring 1915.
But in OTL, it did prompt the delivery of sharp protest notes to Germany, which were written harshly enough to promptthe resignation of the pacifically inclined Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan, and the fuss this all created, possibly along with additional protests, did cause Germany to restrict its submarine ROE for many months.
Bryan thought Wilson's reaction was too harsh, but the reaction could have been harsher.
The large number of German merchant ships practically trapped, or effectively immobilized, in American ports, because of their all but certain interception and capture by Britain if they attempt to cross the North Atlantic and North Sea back to Germany, left important German assets in reach of American authorities.
In retaliation for the Lusitania and Gulflight incidents (and the recent Cushing incident, the aircraft bombing of an American ship in European waters), President Wilson could have ordered federal agents to seize German ships in American harbors. This would likely seize control of most of them unawares, and leave others that received tip off with the stark choice of getting underway and facing a high risk of capture at sea.
This could be rightly seen as a confrontational and even escalatory move, certainly providing more than enough leverage for demanding victim compensation, apology, and demand for changes in German ROE with submarines. But unlike a declaration of war though, it's relatively proportional - a punishment fit to the crime. To a degree though, by acting first in American ports against exposed German assets, before writing angry letters, Wilson would flip the script and "It would not be a question of what we demanded from them, but of what we were prepared to give *back*".*
There's a chance that Germany could be so angered by this, but probably well under 50-50, that Germany would declare war on the USA over the seizure of German property (in ships). There's a somewhat higher chance of German impoundment of American properties in Germany, and I don't have many details on what American-owned real estate, shipping, deposits and the like were present in Germany in spring 1915.
From this first step, how does German-American diplomatic bargaining and maneuvering proceed over the coming months and years?
Seizing the pool of German ships can give some scalable retaliatory options if Germany takes its own retaliatory steps short of war or a recalcitrant course. For instance, donating confiscated ships to replace U-Boat sunken ones or some other punitive formula. That's probably too cute by half, but the point is there are options.
-----------------------
*The idea for this method of retaliation is actually inspired by Theodore Roosevelt's letters & his claim that this is what he would have done in reaction to Lusitania and what should have been done.
So President Wilson asks Congress for a declaration of war by 20 May, 1915....
....
....
Just kidding. That would have been ridiculous. If you think about it, it would have been ludicrously disproportionate to commit the nation to war to Germany immediately because of the Lusitania (non-US-ship) crossfire and drowning casualties, and fatalities from the torpedoing (but not sinking) of the American SS Gulflight in British waters in spring 1915.
But in OTL, it did prompt the delivery of sharp protest notes to Germany, which were written harshly enough to promptthe resignation of the pacifically inclined Secretary of State William Jennings Bryan, and the fuss this all created, possibly along with additional protests, did cause Germany to restrict its submarine ROE for many months.
Bryan thought Wilson's reaction was too harsh, but the reaction could have been harsher.
The large number of German merchant ships practically trapped, or effectively immobilized, in American ports, because of their all but certain interception and capture by Britain if they attempt to cross the North Atlantic and North Sea back to Germany, left important German assets in reach of American authorities.
In retaliation for the Lusitania and Gulflight incidents (and the recent Cushing incident, the aircraft bombing of an American ship in European waters), President Wilson could have ordered federal agents to seize German ships in American harbors. This would likely seize control of most of them unawares, and leave others that received tip off with the stark choice of getting underway and facing a high risk of capture at sea.
This could be rightly seen as a confrontational and even escalatory move, certainly providing more than enough leverage for demanding victim compensation, apology, and demand for changes in German ROE with submarines. But unlike a declaration of war though, it's relatively proportional - a punishment fit to the crime. To a degree though, by acting first in American ports against exposed German assets, before writing angry letters, Wilson would flip the script and "It would not be a question of what we demanded from them, but of what we were prepared to give *back*".*
There's a chance that Germany could be so angered by this, but probably well under 50-50, that Germany would declare war on the USA over the seizure of German property (in ships). There's a somewhat higher chance of German impoundment of American properties in Germany, and I don't have many details on what American-owned real estate, shipping, deposits and the like were present in Germany in spring 1915.
From this first step, how does German-American diplomatic bargaining and maneuvering proceed over the coming months and years?
Seizing the pool of German ships can give some scalable retaliatory options if Germany takes its own retaliatory steps short of war or a recalcitrant course. For instance, donating confiscated ships to replace U-Boat sunken ones or some other punitive formula. That's probably too cute by half, but the point is there are options.
-----------------------
*The idea for this method of retaliation is actually inspired by Theodore Roosevelt's letters & his claim that this is what he would have done in reaction to Lusitania and what should have been done.