What if the Philippine Republic was ISOT'ed from July 4th 1954 to July 4th 1934?

[raharris1973]

Two months after the passage of the Tydings-McDuffie act schduling Filipino independence for the mid-40s, in May 1934, during the 4th of July holiday, after a cone of light envelops the Philippines, the archipelago is replaced by a version of itself from exactly 20 years later, July 4th, 1954.

No non-Filipino people have arrived back with the 1954 Philippines, no Americans, no third country nationals, but all the property and equipment, including the military and naval equipment at Clark Airfield and Subic Bay, are left behind and now exist in the world 1934.

So we have the 1954 Philippines and Filipinos, a developing country, but one possessing plenty of interesting 'news from the future' and samples of future technology, military and civilian, living in the world of 1934. What happens next?

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

So we have the 1954 Philippines and Filipinos, a developing country, but one possessing plenty of interesting 'news from the future' and samples of future technology, military and civilian, living in the world of 1934. What happens next?

Lots of countries will want to examine and buy the F-51 Mustangs of the Hukbong Himpapawid ng Pilipinas, the USAF F-80 Shooting Stars and dumped P-38 Lightnings there.

 

[raharris1973]

I think from a military/naval logic point of view, those in the Japanese armed forces who, even with insight into the future want to go for strategic expansionism and independence - just to 'get it right' this time, their best and most urgent move would be to try to invade and overwhelm the Philippines. The Philippines, if conquered, can be a source of better weapons and some other technologies, and if left alone is too much of a threat and can only grow and spread bad publicity about Japan and help Japan's enemies. Not saying Japan would win, although it would likely have numerical advantages making them at least a serious menace, even if tactical memories and superior weaponry plus guerrilla skills could make the Filipinos prevail.

The transported in time Filipinos, while not yielding up independence, would invite the 1934 Americans to reoccupy their bases in the country to reestablish alliance ties and a hedge against Japan and any potential unknown emerging threats. They would also try to negotiate continued access to the US market for exports. The Filipinos would be willing to share US tech back with the Americans. The 1934 Americans, who just passed planned independence and are focused climbing out of the Depression, won't obnoxiously try to rescind Filipino independence, especially when they see what the Filipinos have done with the place.

However, actually sending fleet elements from the Pacific fleet to replace the Asiatic fleet (at least all its 1934 and 1954 personnel, officers and sailors- even if not unmanned 1954 'ghost ships') could be something 1934 USA decides is just too expensive to do. And sugar growing states could argue that America's market access obligation to the now independent Philippines is over with independence. That would all be a matter for negotiation. And of course the Filipinos can also initiate outreach for defense cooperation and tech sharing with the British Empire, Dutch, French, and Nationalist Chinese as well as the USA.

However, isolationist American and public inclinations may be towards the Philippines and western Pacific commitments, in an unstressed situation in 1934. 'news from the future' will make the Americans, and everybody else, cast a wary eye on the Japanese. The Carl Vinson naval bill of 1934 will be fully funded, and doubled or trebled, with the Americans trying to incorporate reverse engineered tech recovered from the Filipinos into it where possible. Nobody will bother with the London Naval Treaty attempts of 1935.