raharris1973
Well-known member
What if the occupation borders of 1814 became the enshrined Congress of Vienna borders without (much) further trading?
One permissive condition would need to be no 100 days for Napoleon, but the other, more important condition, would have to be much less further hors-trading between the victors afterward. Maybe Napoleon gets grabbed and taken to St. Helena before he can try the 100 Days? Not sure how to prevent it without a forceful physical restraint or killing him.
Here's what these borders were, map thanks to Valdemar: https://www.alternatehistory.com/wiki/lib/exe/detail.php?id=resources:europe_maps_by_valdemar_ii&media=resources:1814.png
Notable differences - France has a few more border territories on the edge of Belgium, Germany, Savoy.
More noticeable - Belgium-Luxemburg is not made Dutch orange. Instead, it is mainly Prussian gray, joined to a Prussian Rhine province and substantially smaller Prussian Westphalia. Luxemburg, including Belgian Luxembourg, is under Austrian occupation rule, united with an Austrian, not Bavarian, Palatinate. Bavaria retains Salzburg, but lacks a few Franconian towns/districts on its northwest. Russian occupied Poland includes all the former Grand Duchy of Warsaw, including Posen, which Prussia does not have. The only part of the Polish partition lands that Prussia retains is West Prussia/Pomerelia/aka "the Polish Corridor".
Overall, the situation is almost as "balanced" between the powers as the final Congress of Vienna settlement of OTL was. Prussia is still a marcher state, guarding Franc, spread across the north European plain in two non-contiguous parts, and the distance between the eastern Brandenburg-Prussia part and the western portion is about as small as in OTL. The composition of the western part is quite different. A bit fewer (mainly Catholic) Westphalian Germans, far more Catholic Limburgers and Flemings, and far more French-speaking Walloons. Over time, the liabilities of this more linguistically diverse Prussia may be found to be balance by its combination of the Ruhr and Rhine and much of Belgian coal. Prussia is joined by Austria as a marcher state in the Palatinate - the latter should be more reliable anti-French guardians than the historically pro-French Bavarian Wittelsbachs. The Dutch have less land, and are not enlisted as a barrier state. Perhaps as a result, they have some colonial territory restored, or their interests are disregarded and being released from hostage-ship is considered reward enough.
The main thing on the map that seems to be out of place and balance to keep as a perpetual fixture in Central Europe would be making the Russian occupation regime over Wettin Saxony permanent. Saxony as a Russia guberniya, de jure or de facto, would make Austria cry foul, and make a mockery of Prussian sovereignty, and make Britain cry foul over the 'balance of power' principle of the thing. It also also might seem a tad excessive punishment for the late-flipping Wettin dynasty to dispossess them entirely.
So an alternate solution could be to hand over Saxony to the Prussians entirely, as the Prussians desired. After all, in this map as shown, for all their effort, and even gains in western Europe --and associated anti-French containment duties, they've gotten no additional buffering from their Brandenburger heartland beyond what Napoleon left them after he beat them down at Jena! Russia might be generous enough to restrain itself and grant this request, simply to divert negative attention from itself and anticipating Prussia would continue to be a reliable junior partner to Russia in the future, as it has been in the past.
If Russia chose to be greedy, and insist on compensation of comparable material value in return for yielding Saxony to Prussia, Russia's most likely request of Prussia would be for its lands east of the old Holy Roman Empire, East Prussia, and West Prussia/Pomererlia (with Danzig). It would be an enormous ask of Prussia for the Kingdom to give up the region giving the Kingdom its name, but for Russia, the value of additional Baltic coast and ports and outlets for its Polish produce would be fantastic. For Prussia, acceptance of a trade like this cannot be 100% ruled out, despite the loss of "brand HQ". In terms of taxable population, resources and productivity, the balanced and diverse manufacturing, crafting, and agricultural economy is far more valuable than the East-West Prussian agricultural and forestry economy.
Austria again would likely cry foul at Prussia absorbing all Saxony and adding to its lengthy border with Austrian Bohemia.
So perhaps the Wettins get off the hook and have all Saxony restored to them. Maybe the Prussians get the bonus of a tiny land corridor between their eastern and western domains, say by absorbing Braunschweig/Brunswick (who gets compensated elsewhere?) or a section of one the Hessian states.
Alternatively, the best settlement for all, might be to have Prussia obstain the Saxon territories it got in OTL 1815 to enhance its Brandenburg core, while leaving the 'chastised' Wettins in charge of a reduced Saxony just northwest of Austrian Bohemia, with little else changing in the way of borders.
The most interesting alterations in European history going forward will be coming from the altered history of Prussia and Belgium. One of the first choices to come up will be whether all of Belgium, the Fleming and Walloon lands, is included in the 'German Confederation' likely set up to be sort of a successor to the HRE, or if there is an exclusion along semi-ethnolinguistic lines of lands west of Limburg and Luxemburg. All Belgium had been HRE for all time up to 1792 despite its linguistic non-German-ness, and the Czech speakers of Bohemia were included in OTL's German Confederation after all.
One permissive condition would need to be no 100 days for Napoleon, but the other, more important condition, would have to be much less further hors-trading between the victors afterward. Maybe Napoleon gets grabbed and taken to St. Helena before he can try the 100 Days? Not sure how to prevent it without a forceful physical restraint or killing him.
Here's what these borders were, map thanks to Valdemar: https://www.alternatehistory.com/wiki/lib/exe/detail.php?id=resources:europe_maps_by_valdemar_ii&media=resources:1814.png
Notable differences - France has a few more border territories on the edge of Belgium, Germany, Savoy.
More noticeable - Belgium-Luxemburg is not made Dutch orange. Instead, it is mainly Prussian gray, joined to a Prussian Rhine province and substantially smaller Prussian Westphalia. Luxemburg, including Belgian Luxembourg, is under Austrian occupation rule, united with an Austrian, not Bavarian, Palatinate. Bavaria retains Salzburg, but lacks a few Franconian towns/districts on its northwest. Russian occupied Poland includes all the former Grand Duchy of Warsaw, including Posen, which Prussia does not have. The only part of the Polish partition lands that Prussia retains is West Prussia/Pomerelia/aka "the Polish Corridor".
Overall, the situation is almost as "balanced" between the powers as the final Congress of Vienna settlement of OTL was. Prussia is still a marcher state, guarding Franc, spread across the north European plain in two non-contiguous parts, and the distance between the eastern Brandenburg-Prussia part and the western portion is about as small as in OTL. The composition of the western part is quite different. A bit fewer (mainly Catholic) Westphalian Germans, far more Catholic Limburgers and Flemings, and far more French-speaking Walloons. Over time, the liabilities of this more linguistically diverse Prussia may be found to be balance by its combination of the Ruhr and Rhine and much of Belgian coal. Prussia is joined by Austria as a marcher state in the Palatinate - the latter should be more reliable anti-French guardians than the historically pro-French Bavarian Wittelsbachs. The Dutch have less land, and are not enlisted as a barrier state. Perhaps as a result, they have some colonial territory restored, or their interests are disregarded and being released from hostage-ship is considered reward enough.
The main thing on the map that seems to be out of place and balance to keep as a perpetual fixture in Central Europe would be making the Russian occupation regime over Wettin Saxony permanent. Saxony as a Russia guberniya, de jure or de facto, would make Austria cry foul, and make a mockery of Prussian sovereignty, and make Britain cry foul over the 'balance of power' principle of the thing. It also also might seem a tad excessive punishment for the late-flipping Wettin dynasty to dispossess them entirely.
So an alternate solution could be to hand over Saxony to the Prussians entirely, as the Prussians desired. After all, in this map as shown, for all their effort, and even gains in western Europe --and associated anti-French containment duties, they've gotten no additional buffering from their Brandenburger heartland beyond what Napoleon left them after he beat them down at Jena! Russia might be generous enough to restrain itself and grant this request, simply to divert negative attention from itself and anticipating Prussia would continue to be a reliable junior partner to Russia in the future, as it has been in the past.
If Russia chose to be greedy, and insist on compensation of comparable material value in return for yielding Saxony to Prussia, Russia's most likely request of Prussia would be for its lands east of the old Holy Roman Empire, East Prussia, and West Prussia/Pomererlia (with Danzig). It would be an enormous ask of Prussia for the Kingdom to give up the region giving the Kingdom its name, but for Russia, the value of additional Baltic coast and ports and outlets for its Polish produce would be fantastic. For Prussia, acceptance of a trade like this cannot be 100% ruled out, despite the loss of "brand HQ". In terms of taxable population, resources and productivity, the balanced and diverse manufacturing, crafting, and agricultural economy is far more valuable than the East-West Prussian agricultural and forestry economy.
Austria again would likely cry foul at Prussia absorbing all Saxony and adding to its lengthy border with Austrian Bohemia.
So perhaps the Wettins get off the hook and have all Saxony restored to them. Maybe the Prussians get the bonus of a tiny land corridor between their eastern and western domains, say by absorbing Braunschweig/Brunswick (who gets compensated elsewhere?) or a section of one the Hessian states.
Alternatively, the best settlement for all, might be to have Prussia obstain the Saxon territories it got in OTL 1815 to enhance its Brandenburg core, while leaving the 'chastised' Wettins in charge of a reduced Saxony just northwest of Austrian Bohemia, with little else changing in the way of borders.
The most interesting alterations in European history going forward will be coming from the altered history of Prussia and Belgium. One of the first choices to come up will be whether all of Belgium, the Fleming and Walloon lands, is included in the 'German Confederation' likely set up to be sort of a successor to the HRE, or if there is an exclusion along semi-ethnolinguistic lines of lands west of Limburg and Luxemburg. All Belgium had been HRE for all time up to 1792 despite its linguistic non-German-ness, and the Czech speakers of Bohemia were included in OTL's German Confederation after all.