What if the Japanese attempted to turn the Taiwan punitive expedition of 1874 into a permanent conquest of the island?

[raharris1973]

What if the Japanese attempted to turn the Taiwan punitive expedition of 1874 into a permanent conquest of the island? Japanese invasion of Taiwan (1874) - Wikipedia

Could the Japanese succeed, or would their effort be defeated by disease, climate, and local resistance? Or by a Chinese counter intervention force from the mainland?

 

[Ricardolindo]

What if the Japanese attempted to turn the Taiwan punitive expedition of 1874 into a permanent conquest of the island? Japanese invasion of Taiwan (1874) - Wikipedia

Could the Japanese succeed, or would their effort be defeated by disease, climate, and local resistance? Or by a Chinese counter intervention force from the mainland?

I posted a thread about this back in 2021, https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/japanese-taiwan-from-1874.4512/, and @Bonniecanuck argued that a Japanese conquest of Taiwan in 1874 was unlikely.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

It likely would not succeed.

But if it did succeed, I suspect Taiwan by 1945 would be viewed somewhat like Okinawa was.

Does this include Japan taking Penghu? If not, I imagine the French would take it during the Sino-French War.

From Wikipedia

More generally, the Japanese incursion into Taiwan in 1874 and the feeble Chinese response was a blatant revelation of Chinese weakness and an invitation to further foreign encroachment in Taiwan. In particular, the success of the Japanese incursion was among the factors influencing the French decision to invade Taiwan in October 1884, during the Sino-French War. The Qing court belatedly attempted to strengthen its hold on Taiwan. Chinese imperial commissioner Shen Pao-chen built the Batongguan Trail in 1875 across the island's rugged interior to encourage Han settlement in the mountains and better subjugate the indigenous population.[29][30]

It seems Taiwan would be less Han if Japan takes the island in 1874.