What if Poland and Lithuania never unified? No Union of Krewo, 1385- no Union, ever

[raharris1973]

What if Poland and Lithuania never unified?

At least they never had a personal union lasting more than one generation and never had a joint constitution.

Let's also suppose for the purposes of this discussion that neither of form a long-lasting bond or Commonwealth with an alternative partner instead of each other (so no Polish-Hungarian or Polish-Bohemian Commonwealth, or Lithuanian-Muscovite Commonwealth)

How does each country likely develop differently internally over the next 400 years from 1385 or so? In terms of distinctiveness in terms of hereditary versus elective monarchy and balance of powers between the King/Grand Duke and estates/nobility?

How does each country's standing and position and strength and size in central and Eastern Europe likely evolve in the 400 years after 1385? Do either of them become completely extinct as a state or language by 1785, or far earlier?

How is the fate of the Jewish communities who lived there, grew there, and settled there altered by the starkly different politics? What about different impacts of the Reformation or the borderline with Orthodox Christianity?

 

[raharris1973]

So, nobody thinks that, absent the resources Poland gained from union with Lithuania, Poland might have been conquered by the Teutonic Kinights singly, or in combination with other states like Hungary, the HRE, or components of it like Brandenburg or Bohemia? Or that Poland might have been drastically shrunken or fragmented? Although it did not appear to be the case in 1389, in many maps of the area in historical atlases covering parts of the 1100s and 1200s and 1300s, different parts of Poland like Mazovia, Silesia and Great and Little Poland all appear in different colors as if ruled by different administrations.

 

[Ricardolindo]

What if Poland and Lithuania never unified?

At least they never had a personal union lasting more than one generation and never had a joint constitution.

Let's also suppose for the purposes of this discussion that neither of form a long-lasting bond or Commonwealth with an alternative partner instead of each other (so no Polish-Hungarian or Polish-Bohemian Commonwealth, or Lithuanian-Muscovite Commonwealth)

How does each country likely develop differently internally over the next 400 years from 1385 or so? In terms of distinctiveness in terms of hereditary versus elective monarchy and balance of powers between the King/Grand Duke and estates/nobility?

How does each country's standing and position and strength and size in central and Eastern Europe likely evolve in the 400 years after 1385? Do either of them become completely extinct as a state or language by 1785, or far earlier?

How is the fate of the Jewish communities who lived there, grew there, and settled there altered by the starkly different politics? What about different impacts of the Reformation or the borderline with Orthodox Christianity?

There was once an argument at soc.history.what-if that Lithuania could have made peace with the Teutonic Knights by ceding Samogitia to them and focused on expanding to the Rus lands. However, the problem with this is whether the Teutonic Knights would have satisfied themselves with Samogitia in the long term.

 

[raharris1973]

There was once an argument at soc.history.what-if that Lithuania could have made peace with the Teutonic Knights by ceding Samogitia to them and focused on expanding to the Rus lands. However, the problem with this is whether the Teutonic Knights would have satisfied themselves with Samogitia in the long term.

Interesting argument.

I could see how the Teutonic Order benefits from getting its land bridge from Prussia to Livonia, but it is a hard pill to swallow for Lithuania, it gives up one of the most truly native Lithuanian/Baltic-Pagan realms under Lithuanian control to foreigners.