Ricardolindo
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The late David Tenner argued at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...y-independent-after-wwi.426491/#post-15664462 that unlike Azerbaijan and Armenia, Georgia had a chance of staying independent after the Russian Civil War.
"Apparently a turning point in Lenin's decision-making--originally he had been dubious about Stalin and Ordzhonikidze's proposals for an invasion--came in January 1921 when "Krasin reported a statement made to him by Lloyd George to the effect that Great Britain considered the entire Caucasus within the Soviet sphere of influence and contemplated no intervention there." Richard Pipes, *The Formation of the Soviet Union* (1964 ed.), p. 237. I do not think that Lloyd George could realistically threaten British military intervention to save Georgia by this time; British public opinion would not support such intervention. But he could have made it clear that the diplomatic and economic ties the Soviets wanted with Britain were contingent on leaving Georgia alone..."
"Another point is that Georgia, as a state ruled by Mensheviks, was very much admired by western Social Democrats, who saw it as a model of socialism superior to the brutal Bolshevik variety. Kautsky visited it in 1920, and wrote an admiring report. https://www.marxists.org/archive/kautsky/1921/georgia/ This could have two effects on the Soviet leaders. On the one hand, if western Social Democrats made it clear that leaving Georgia alone was a necessary condition for any united front with the Communists this could give the Soviet leaders some pause. On the other hand, just seeing the hated "renegade Kautsky" praise the Georgian Menshevik government might actually make the Soviets *more* anxious to crush Georgia...
All in all, if the British, the Turks (who might prefer an independent Georgia as a buffer), and the western Social Democrats all made it clear that their relations with the Soviets depended on leaving Georgia alone, then given Lenin's initial hesitation about an invasion, I couldn't rule out Georgia maintaining its independence for decades the way the Baltic states did--*if* Lenin had lived or at least if Stalin hadn't come to power. It is hard for me to see Stalin indefinitely tolerating his native Georgia being ruled by the Mensheviks. Indeed, the fact that Georgia was ruled by people who had played a major role in *all-Russian* Social Democracy distinguished it from the Baltic states (which were ruled by local nationalists) and meant that in a sense as long as Georgia remained independent, the Bolsheviks had not quite totally won the Russian Civil War."
So, the Democratic Republic of Georgia had a chance of surviving if the British, the Turks, who might prefer an independent Georgia as a buffer, and the Western Social Democrats all made it very clear to the Soviets that the good relations that they wanted were contingent on leaving Georgia alone and someone other than Stalin came to power after Lenin died.
However, I think Georgia would have had to make territorial concessions to Turkey, giving up Artvin and Ardahan, like the Soviets did.
Also, what would have been the fate of Batum in this scenario?
@Jackson Lennock
@raharris1973
@NotDavidSoslan
"Apparently a turning point in Lenin's decision-making--originally he had been dubious about Stalin and Ordzhonikidze's proposals for an invasion--came in January 1921 when "Krasin reported a statement made to him by Lloyd George to the effect that Great Britain considered the entire Caucasus within the Soviet sphere of influence and contemplated no intervention there." Richard Pipes, *The Formation of the Soviet Union* (1964 ed.), p. 237. I do not think that Lloyd George could realistically threaten British military intervention to save Georgia by this time; British public opinion would not support such intervention. But he could have made it clear that the diplomatic and economic ties the Soviets wanted with Britain were contingent on leaving Georgia alone..."
"Another point is that Georgia, as a state ruled by Mensheviks, was very much admired by western Social Democrats, who saw it as a model of socialism superior to the brutal Bolshevik variety. Kautsky visited it in 1920, and wrote an admiring report. https://www.marxists.org/archive/kautsky/1921/georgia/ This could have two effects on the Soviet leaders. On the one hand, if western Social Democrats made it clear that leaving Georgia alone was a necessary condition for any united front with the Communists this could give the Soviet leaders some pause. On the other hand, just seeing the hated "renegade Kautsky" praise the Georgian Menshevik government might actually make the Soviets *more* anxious to crush Georgia...
All in all, if the British, the Turks (who might prefer an independent Georgia as a buffer), and the western Social Democrats all made it clear that their relations with the Soviets depended on leaving Georgia alone, then given Lenin's initial hesitation about an invasion, I couldn't rule out Georgia maintaining its independence for decades the way the Baltic states did--*if* Lenin had lived or at least if Stalin hadn't come to power. It is hard for me to see Stalin indefinitely tolerating his native Georgia being ruled by the Mensheviks. Indeed, the fact that Georgia was ruled by people who had played a major role in *all-Russian* Social Democracy distinguished it from the Baltic states (which were ruled by local nationalists) and meant that in a sense as long as Georgia remained independent, the Bolsheviks had not quite totally won the Russian Civil War."
So, the Democratic Republic of Georgia had a chance of surviving if the British, the Turks, who might prefer an independent Georgia as a buffer, and the Western Social Democrats all made it very clear to the Soviets that the good relations that they wanted were contingent on leaving Georgia alone and someone other than Stalin came to power after Lenin died.
However, I think Georgia would have had to make territorial concessions to Turkey, giving up Artvin and Ardahan, like the Soviets did.
Also, what would have been the fate of Batum in this scenario?
@Jackson Lennock
@raharris1973
@NotDavidSoslan
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