Taiwan if the Kuomintang gets obliterated during World War II

[Ricardolindo]

Inspired on https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-the-kmt-gets-obliterated-during-wwii.409780/:
Let's say the Kuomintang gets obliterated during World War II. What does the United States do with Taiwan? I don't see them either handing it over to the People's Republic of China or returning it to Japan. I think they would keep a prolonged occupation of Taiwan like they did with the Ryukyu Islands. The Taiwanese would campaign for independence. However, the longer the occupation lasts, the bigger a problem China becomes. Eventually, they would probably press for unification under one country, two systems, like Hong Kong and Macau. However, I don't see the Taiwanese accepting such a thing as easily as the Hong Kongers and Macanese did and the United States would be in a much stronger position than the United Kingdom and Portugal. I think Taiwan probably becomes independent eventually and China reluctantly accepts it.

 

[Hendryk]

I don't see them either handing it over to the People's Republic of China or returning it to Japan.

There is nothing for the US to hand over since they didn't have forces in Taiwan to begin with.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Okinawa was under military administration from 1945 to 1950, then under Self-Government-with-American-Override from 1950 to 1972. Taiwan probably gets similar treatment.


The difference is that the Treaty of San Francisco had the US holding Okinawa, the Bonin Islands, and so forth as Japanese territories held in trust by the United States. Ergo, they were always Japanese and to go back to Japan, but until then the United States controlled them on Japan's behalf. On the other hand, Japan simply abandoned all claim to Taiwan (and the Pescadores, and Spratly Islands, and Paracel Islands). And unlike other interests in China which by treaty were expressly given to China, nothing was said about Taiwan's status. It was a giant question mark and deliberately so. John Foster Dulles, who co-authored the San Francisco Peace treaty, said that the treaty ceded Taiwan to nobody. China argues the Cairo Declaration (11/27/1943) and Potsdam Declaration (7/26/1945) govern because both expressed an intent for Taiwan and Penghu to be returned to China ... but those are just declarations, not Treaties.

If the KMT is obliterated during WWII, then that means the PRC forms earlier. No representative government from China was invited to the Treaty of San Francisco because there were disagreements on whether the ROC or PRC represented the Chinese people. If the PRC is without a doubt the proper Chinese Government, the PRC is going to be invited. Taiwan might just be given to the PRC then. Or the US might pull shenanigans and insist on a Trusteeship followed by a vote on self-determination. No matter what, the US is administering Taiwan for at least a decade I think.

There were 309,000 Japanese Civilians in Taiwan at the end of WWII. In one year the ROC soldiers threw out 90% of them. I'm not sure what US policy would be long-term on this, but as an immediate matter the US won't do that. On the other hand, the US repatriated 100,000 Japanese from Micronesia after WWII. But the meaningful difference is that the Japanese settlers had become the majority in Micronesia and returning the islands to the natives meant sending the Japanese out. In Taiwan, the Japanese are perhaps 5% of the population. The thread you linked to mentions upwards of a half million persons of mixed Taiwanese and Japanese background too; plus there's ~110,000 Japanese soldiers, many of whom expressed an interest in remaining in Taiwan. Add it all up and perhaps ~15% of Taiwan is Japanese or of some Japanese ancestry. If you account for people who were employed as public servants, benefitted economically from Japanese rule, and veterans, there likely would be a sizable (if not necessarily predominate) voice for rejoining Japan down the line.



China will have Kinmen and Matsu here, unlike Taiwan having them OTL.

Taiwan occupied one of the Spratley Islands until the 70s. The US wouldn't support the Philippines's claim to the Islands because it didn't want to piss of Chiang. But here, the US might just fully support the Filipino claim. The Paracels are a different matter.