• Hi Guest!

    The costs of running this forum are covered by Sea Lion Press. If you'd like to help support the company and the forum, visit patreon.com/sealionpress

Surviving Spanish Sahara

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
Could Spain have kept the Spanish Sahara for longer? We should note Spaniards were 32% of the population. However, the territory had nothing of value and the Polisario Front had already taken over much of the interior of the territory by the time of the Green March.
 
Of course, there is also the problem of Morocco and Mauritania's ambitions, with the former being backed by the US and France, which brought an end to the Spanish Sahara with the Green March.
 
Beyond this, Spain altogether lacked any interest in keeping its possessions in Africa.

Mind, note that Spanish Sahara and Equatorial Guinea both included extensive territory on the African continent. No one did that, not even (say) France in Gabon or Portugal in Cabinda. Spain doing that would ensure political complications, not least with Morocco.
 
Beyond this, Spain altogether lacked any interest in keeping its possessions in Africa.

Mind, note that Spanish Sahara and Equatorial Guinea both included extensive territory on the African continent. No one did that, not even (say) France in Gabon or Portugal in Cabinda. Spain doing that would ensure political complications, not least with Morocco.

Spain didn't really want to give up the Spanish Sahara, at least not to Morocco. However, they didn't have a good way to deal with the Green March, which was largely composed of civilians. In addition, Franco was dying and Arias Navarro was not a very strong leader. I have seen it argued that a surviving Carrero Blanco would not have caved and that Morocco may not even have launched the Green March in such a scenario.
 
Western Sahara receives something like $800 million per year in subsidies from Morocco, according to the 2011 United States diplomatic cable leaks. That's a lot of money for a region with a population of only around 600,000 people and with a GDP per capita of only around $2,500. In fact, that means that the subsidy is well over half the total economy, which makes it one of the largest subsidy programs in history (source).

Even if petroleum deposits that are believed to be in the region were discovered and developed it is thought that the area would likely still be economically nonviable. The region doesn't even have much water outside of the occasional oasis, and the primary economic activity is goat herding by nomadic peoples.
 
Western Sahara receives something like $800 million per year in subsidies from Morocco, according to the 2011 United States diplomatic cable leaks. That's a lot of money for a region with a population of only around 600,000 people and with a GDP per capita of only around $2,500. In fact, that means that the subsidy is well over half the total economy, which makes it one of the largest subsidy programs in history (source).

Even if petroleum deposits that are believed to be in the region were discovered and developed it is thought that the area would likely still be economically nonviable. The region doesn't even have much water outside of the occasional oasis, and the primary economic activity is goat herding by nomadic peoples.

Spain would probably subsidize it more extensively still, given that it is a prosperous high-income country.

At least superficially, I suppose that there is a case for imagining Spain to keep a part of northwest Africa. It kept Ceuta and Melilla, after all. The problem is that Spain seems to have distinguished between those old sovereign territories and the newer Moroccan colonies. More, Spain did withdraw in the past; it let northern Morocco unify with the French protectorate, and it withdrew from Ifni.

I do have the feeling that you would need to change the Spanish transition somehow. I do think it possible: Unlike with Portugal, where the colonial empire was the direct cause of the revolution, Spain's colonies were relatively peripheral. A Spain that was willing to run the risk of tensions with Morocco might have done it. The only question is how you get that done.
 
Spain would probably subsidize it more extensively still, given that it is a prosperous high-income country.

At least superficially, I suppose that there is a case for imagining Spain to keep a part of northwest Africa. It kept Ceuta and Melilla, after all. The problem is that Spain seems to have distinguished between those old sovereign territories and the newer Moroccan colonies. More, Spain did withdraw in the past; it let northern Morocco unify with the French protectorate, and it withdrew from Ifni.

I do have the feeling that you would need to change the Spanish transition somehow. I do think it possible: Unlike with Portugal, where the colonial empire was the direct cause of the revolution, Spain's colonies were relatively peripheral. A Spain that was willing to run the risk of tensions with Morocco might have done it. The only question is how you get that done.

As I said, I have seen it argued that a surviving Carrero Blanco would not have caved in to Morocco.
 
Back
Top