Russia's Western Provinces break off in 1905

[Jackson Lennock]

Could Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia be broken off from the Russian Empire during the Russian Revolution of 1905-1907?

 

[raharris1973]

Not through indigenous means.

Now get a Dogger Bank war started, so Britain is fully bankrolling Japan and attacking Russian naval ships and merchant ships on sight.

And then the two Kaisers make the further leap, not necessarily in character, of deliberately deciding to be a$$holes and to stop worrying about the implications of a Polish revival, and they can send troops in to drive Russia troops out of Poland and Lithuania and the Baltics to support nationalist rebels. To complete the picture, the Romanians and Swedes and Ottomans decide to join in, and get one degree or another of Austrian or German or British backing as needed to get Bessarabia, Finland and Kars-Ardahan broken off of Russia as needed.

France is deterred from doing anything on Russia's behalf by combined Anglo-German (and Japanese strength). Or it makes a valiant run at Alsace-Lorraine in solidarity with the Russians, but is thrown back without changing the outcome in the east, quits before too long - and any clashing with Britain is rather low-grade, reluctant, and desultory.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Not through indigenous means.

Now get a Dogger Bank war started, so Britain is fully bankrolling Japan and attacking Russian naval ships and merchant ships on sight.

And then the two Kaisers make the further leap, not necessarily in character, of deliberately deciding to be a$$holes and to stop worrying about the implications of a Polish revival, and they can send troops in to drive Russia troops out of Poland and Lithuania and the Baltics to support nationalist rebels. To complete the picture, the Romanians and Swedes and Ottomans decide to join in, and get one degree or another of Austrian or German or British backing as needed to get Bessarabia, Finland and Kars-Ardahan broken off of Russia as needed.

France is deterred from doing anything on Russia's behalf by combined Anglo-German (and Japanese strength). Or it makes a valiant run at Alsace-Lorraine in solidarity with the Russians, but is thrown back without changing the outcome in the east, quits before too long - and any clashing with Britain is rather low-grade, reluctant, and desultory.

During WWI the two Kaisers didn't have qualms setting up a puppet Polish regime. If the only part they break off from Russia is Poland, which was highly restive from 1905 to 1907, that would significantly weaken Russia. It pushes the Russians several hundred miles further east, strips Russia of about 10% of its population and perhaps a fifth of Russia's industrial output.

 

[raharris1973]

During WWI the two Kaisers didn't have qualms setting up a puppet Polish regime. If the only part they break off from Russia is Poland, which was highly restive from 1905 to 1907, that would significantly weaken Russia. It pushes the Russians several hundred miles further east, strips Russia of about 10% of its population and perhaps a fifth of Russia's industrial output.

All true - I guess the issue is that 1905 wasn't WWI, and vis-a-vis the Polish issue at least, the Kaisers still had the 'Three Black Eagles' mentality, feeling best off with no Poland at all. The challenge would be getting them to think a buffer state(s), even one with theoretical irredenta against them, would be better than the status quo - in time for the 1905 situation. I think Austria-Hungary wouldn't have been too hard to convince at all. But the decisive vote, and the reluctant one, was Germany, which was still trying to woo Russia in some capacity this late in OTL. I woul argue the buffer idea had more credit to it than it was given, at least once the Franco-Russian treaty was inked and a well-known fact on the European scene by the mid-90s.