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No Second Balkan War, Bigger Bulgaria

Jackson Lennock

Well-known member
Serbia and Bulgaria agreed that a slice of Southern Macedonia would go to Bulgaria after the First Balkan war. But when Austria intervened to deny Serbia a coastline via annexation of Central Albania, Serbia reneged and insisted on keeping a portion of Macedonia it had beat Bulgaria to which Bulgaria had been promised. Bulgaria didn't get there in time because the Bulgarians were busy fighting the Turks.

Meanwhile there was no agreement between Greece and Bulgaria on who would get Salonika. The city was jointly occupied by the two, though the Greeks only beat the Bulgarians there by a day or two. My understanding is the locals (plurality Jewish, who formed a majority when combined with Muslims of various ethnic backgrounds like Albanians, Turks, Pomaks, etc.) preferred the Bulgarians to the Greeks. This was due to a mixture of (a) the Bulgarians being seen as more tolerant (Bulgaria had 1.3 million muslims in 1989, before major waves of emigration which began with an assimilation campaign in 1989 followed by the fall of Communism, compared to perhaps 150,000 in 1950) and (b) Salonika wanted to be tied to a a bigger Balkan Country with access to more of the Vardar basin for trade/economic purposes.

Romania meanwhile took advantage of the festering tensions Bulgaria had with Greece and Serbia as well as Bulgaria's still being at war with Turkey to demand Silistra. Bulgaria, meanwhile,

What if Bulgaria (a) beat Greece to Salonika and (b) accommodated Serbia on the condition that Serbia support a Bulgarian demand for more of East Thrace?

Bulgaria refusing to cut losses meant the Bulgarians got dogpiled by Romania, Greece, Serbia, and the Ottoman Empire. The Bulgarians ended losing Greek Macedonia east of the Vardar River, the western slice of post-1913 Turkish Thrace, even less of Vardar Macedonia, and losing South Dobruja. But if the Bulgarians took Salonika first and placated the Serbians, could that have deterred Romania and Greece from jumping the Bulgarians?



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For comparison, here is a map in what I assume is Bulgarian of which which shows who was in control of what at the start of the Second Balkan War. You an see the line through North Macedonia which Bulgaria claimed as the rightful border too, plus the proposed division of Albania. Here, its Bulgaria acquiescing to Serbian gains and Bulgaria getting Salonika.
 
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Maybe? (I guess Greece and Romania have to consider if they can take the Bulgarians on their own)

Could they also keep their mitts off of Constantinople? The Russians were threatening them with war if they tried to take it.

If the Bulgarians get one of the borders you're showing, they get to be the happy 'square' country in the southeast of Europe.

Without being beaten up, they have options. If they are still greedy, for achieving something like the San Stefano boundaries and incorporating a greater Macedonia [which they will not have achieved here], they may cockily join in the Great War on the Austrian side at the outset against Serbia to get it. Or may make an ultimatum to the Serbs of their own, prewar, shortly after the Austrian one.

Austro-Serb war, indeed Italo-Austrian war against Serbia (& possibly Greece) might happen in this ATL even before the Sarajevo incident, if Serbia is more insistent on occupying Albania for itself while compromising on the Bulgarian border.

Of course, if Bulgaria is not smashed in the 2nd Balkan War, St. Petersburg *might*, just *might* treat Bulgaria as client #1 in the Balkans, instead of Serbia, possibly hanging Serbia out to dry if the Sarajevo incident happens. WWI (as we knew it) butterflied away.

If WWI as we knew it remains on track, probably the smartest, and a pretty likely play for Bulgaria would be to simply remain neutral as a prretty territorially satiated country. Having started the habit in the Great War, if there happens to be a WWII rematch, Bulgaria would likely see no need to break the habit if it can exercise any control over that.
 
Maybe? (I guess Greece and Romania have to consider if they can take the Bulgarians on their own)

Could they also keep their mitts off of Constantinople? The Russians were threatening them with war if they tried to take it.

I think they'd be aware enough to not poke the (Russian) bear.


If the Bulgarians get one of the borders you're showing, they get to be the happy 'square' country in the southeast of Europe.

Instead of a rectangle like OTL!

Without being beaten up, they have options. If they are still greedy, for achieving something like the San Stefano boundaries and incorporating a greater Macedonia [which they will not have achieved here], they may cockily join in the Great War on the Austrian side at the outset against Serbia to get it. Or may make an ultimatum to the Serbs of their own, prewar, shortly after the Austrian one.

Austro-Serb war, indeed Italo-Austrian war against Serbia (& possibly Greece) might happen in this ATL even before the Sarajevo incident, if Serbia is more insistent on occupying Albania for itself while compromising on the Bulgarian border.

Of course, if Bulgaria is not smashed in the 2nd Balkan War, St. Petersburg *might*, just *might* treat Bulgaria as client #1 in the Balkans, instead of Serbia, possibly hanging Serbia out to dry if the Sarajevo incident happens. WWI (as we knew it) butterflied away.

If WWI as we knew it remains on track, probably the smartest, and a pretty likely play for Bulgaria would be to simply remain neutral as a prretty territorially satiated country. Having started the habit in the Great War, if there happens to be a WWII rematch, Bulgaria would likely see no need to break the habit if it can exercise any control over that.


It was proposed that Bulgaria join the Entente OTL. The terms were the Serbs would cede the slice of Macedonia Bulgaria was promised during the First Balkan War. The Bulgarians looked at a map and figured they'd go after a Serbia pressured on two fronts than slog against the Ottomans again.

Here, the Ottomans aren't as intimidating. They might not be in the war at all.

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