No German colonies in the Pacific

[Ricardolindo]

What if Germany never acquired colonies in the Pacific?
Who would get their Pacific colonies?

 

[raharris1973]

The first ones they took?

In the 1880s, south of the equator, New Guinea and nearby islands - Australia

Samoa - Britain or US or both

Nauru - Britain

the Marshalls - Spain possibly might formalize control. Possibly the US, possibly Britain.

The ones they bought from Spain later, in 1899? - Spain might keep them. Or the US might get them. Or Japan might buy them instead. Or Britain. Or France.

Qingdao from China in 1897? The Chinese might just keep it, unless somebody is particularly greedy for it. But maybe Britain would grab it, instead of Weihaiwei on the same peninsula. The Russians could be4 gutsy and try to grab it in 1897 or 1898, in which case the Japanese just grab it in 1904.

 

[Japhy]

Germanys lack of Pacific Colonies will inevitably lead to the whole High Seas fleet bring based in Tsingtao in compensation, thus allowing the British to do the proposed Pomeranian Landings in 1914 and seize an under garrisoned Berlin by the end of August and thus ending the war decisively for the Entente.

The Colonies go to whoever bothers to offer Spain money or they keep them (Japan)

 

[raharris1973]

What if Germany never acquired colonies in the Pacific?
Who would get their Pacific colonies?

Assuming you mean no German Pacific Island colonies, or colonies on the Pacific coast of China, that adds a wrinkle if we end up with WWI as we know it in 1914.

Japan has literally nothing to gain by declaring war on Germany, and will probably stay neutral. As it was, some in the Army and the Diet questioned the wisdom of joining the war against Germany.

China lacks a direct incentive to declare war against Germany as well. China, on the contrary, has some grievances against the Entente powers, but is still unlikely to act on them because Germany is far away and unable to help and the Entente are nearby and able to inflict punishment.

Japan should still do well in commerce with the Entente powers and increase its market share in China and in neutral countries.

Japan could press for the 21 Demands like OTL and this issue might not be resolved like OTL, potentially leading to Sino-Japanese conflict simultaneous with the Great War.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Assuming you mean no German Pacific Island colonies, or colonies on the Pacific coast of China, that adds a wrinkle if we end up with WWI as we know it in 1914.

Japan has literally nothing to gain by declaring war on Germany, and will probably stay neutral. As it was, some in the Army and the Diet questioned the wisdom of joining the war against Germany.

China lacks a direct incentive to declare war against Germany as well. China, on the contrary, has some grievances against the Entente powers, but is still unlikely to act on them because Germany is far away and unable to help and the Entente are nearby and able to inflict punishment.

Japan should still do well in commerce with the Entente powers and increase its market share in China and in neutral countries.

Japan could press for the 21 Demands like OTL and this issue might not be resolved like OTL, potentially leading to Sino-Japanese conflict simultaneous with the Great War.

When I said the Pacific colonies, I was thinking of the islands and not Qingdao.
Without the Pacific Islands, would Germany still have acquired Qingdao?

 

[raharris1973]

Without the Pacific Islands, would Germany still have acquired Qingdao?

It easily still could have been interested, and still could have accomplished the territorial seizure.

It could also have been butterflied away.

As it was in OTL, Germany acquired Qingdao in 1897 (after thinking about doing a port grab for at least a decade), a dozen or so years after getting multiple island colonies mostly south of equator (New Guinea), Bismarcks, and claiming the Marshalls to the north- then got Nauru inn1888. They had poked around the Carolines and Palau in the mid-1880s but accepted Papal arbitration which gave them to Spain. They ultimately got the Carolines, and Palaus, and the Marianas, after purchase from Spain two years after Qingdao, in 1899. They also partitioned Samoa with the Americans in 1899 - this was after a 10 or 11 year tripartite condominium protectorate over Samoa with the USA and UK.