Nineteenth Century Europe under the Frankfurt Conference

[Jackson Lennock]

What if Napoleon had accepted the "Frankfurt Proposals" of Metternich in 1813? France retains its "natural borders" of 1801 - meaning Belgium, Rhineland, Nice, Savoy, and Limburg.

Here, Russia and Austria will have played a greater role in Napoleon's downfall and Prussia a lesser one. I could imagine a Europe similar to the OTL post-1815 map, but Posen is Russian. Austria would still dominate North Italy, and Prussia would have Westphalia and a slice of Saxony (but potentially a smaller slice than OTL).

Napoleon would not have many friends. Murat would still be in Naples though. Sweden under Bernadotte might be friendly to France.


How does France handle German nationalism developing in the Rhineland? How do the 1848 revolutions go?

 

[TheIO]

What if Napoleon had accepted the "Frankfurt Proposals" of Metternich in 1813? France retains its "natural borders" of 1801 - meaning Belgium, Rhineland, Nice, Savoy, and Limburg.

Here, Russia and Austria will have played a greater role in Napoleon's downfall and Prussia a lesser one. I could imagine a Europe similar to the OTL post-1815 map, but Posen is Russian. Austria would still dominate North Italy, and Prussia would have Westphalia and a slice of Saxony (but potentially a smaller slice than OTL).

Napoleon would not have many friends. Murat would still be in Naples though. Sweden under Bernadotte might be friendly to France.


How does France handle German nationalism developing in the Rhineland? How do the 1848 revolutions go?

Would the other Allies have accepted it though?

 

[History Learner]

Would the other Allies have accepted it though?

The Frankfurt Proposals came from the major allies; IIRC, only the UK was against it.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Maybe this?

 

[History Learner]

Maybe this?

View attachment 63209

Beautiful map, first of all. Really love your cartographic contributions in these threads; they help visualize the possibilities.

Specific to the topic, French control of the Rhine trade as well as OTL Belgium are an obvious boost to their economic power going forward. Is it enough to offset British advantages and become the dominant power? Perhaps, or, at the very least, enough to make it a far closer context. Prussia not having the Rhineland obviously weakens them, so I wonder if they would not be given all of Saxony in compensation. Could be seen as a way by the Allies to help maintain unity and thus avoid something like the Posen-Saxony Crisis of OTL. Certainly, I do doubt any united Germany here; Austria is stronger relative to Prussia, but France can actually compete here for influence on an even playing field given its own relative strength and control of South German trade.

I know the thread is focused on Europe, but I also can't stop myself from thinking about the wider global possibilities. The fall of Napoleon in April of 1814 historically allowed the British Army to detach ~15,000 men to North America for duty in the War of 1812; here, with peace a done deal in 1813, this can be done sooner with resulting strategic effects. A France that is much more powerful than OTL is also one that can engage in Imperialism sooner; @SinghSong in his Suez thread noted the various missed opportunities to have the canal built sooner. Could we see a "Greater Syria" under the French, with a canal and a protectorate of Egypt? Perhaps a French Australia here, given the advantage the canal would give them? What about the reduced Netherlands here; would Britain return the Cape to help keep them from slipping into the French sphere? Maybe they would keep the NEI instead?

Lots to ponder all around.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Beautiful map, first of all. Really love your cartographic contributions in these threads; they help visualize the possibilities.

Specific to the topic, French control of the Rhine trade as well as OTL Belgium are an obvious boost to their economic power going forward. Is it enough to offset British advantages and become the dominant power? Perhaps, or, at the very least, enough to make it a far closer context. Prussia not having the Rhineland obviously weakens them, so I wonder if they would not be given all of Saxony in compensation. Could be seen as a way by the Allies to help maintain unity and thus avoid something like the Posen-Saxony Crisis of OTL. Certainly, I do doubt any united Germany here; Austria is stronger relative to Prussia, but France can actually compete here for influence on an even playing field given its own relative strength and control of South German trade.

I know the thread is focused on Europe, but I also can't stop myself from thinking about the wider global possibilities. The fall of Napoleon in April of 1814 historically allowed the British Army to detach ~15,000 men to North America for duty in the War of 1812; here, with peace a done deal in 1813, this can be done sooner with resulting strategic effects. A France that is much more powerful than OTL is also one that can engage in Imperialism sooner; @SinghSong in his Suez thread noted the various missed opportunities to have the canal built sooner. Could we see a "Greater Syria" under the French, with a canal and a protectorate of Egypt? Perhaps a French Australia here, given the advantage the canal would give them? What about the reduced Netherlands here; would Britain return the Cape to help keep them from slipping into the French sphere? Maybe they would keep the NEI instead?

Lots to ponder all around.

Thank you for the complement.

I assume Prussia fails to get all of Saxony because Prussia has contributed less to the fall of Napoleon here. Russia and Austria played bigger parts. Prussia might try to swap Westphalia for Saxony the way they tried to swap Rhineland for Saxony in 1822, but I don't see why it would play out all that differently.

I think some sort of German Customs Union will eventually develop. It may be a more independent unit than a Prussian dominated thing though. I don't think France would be bitterly opposed to the unification of some of the German States (South Germany and the Hessian states, for example) if it keeps those countries out of the orbit of Prussia and Austria.

 

[History Learner]

Thank you for the complement.

I assume Prussia fails to get all of Saxony because Prussia has contributed less to the fall of Napoleon here. Russia and Austria played bigger parts. Prussia might try to swap Westphalia for Saxony the way they tried to swap Rhineland for Saxony in 1822, but I don't see why it would play out all that differently.

I'm assuming both Britain and Russia would move to support the Prussians here, as a means of countering Franco-Austrian influence in Germany.

I think some sort of German Customs Union will eventually develop. It may be a more independent unit than a Prussian dominated thing though. I don't think France would be bitterly opposed to the unification of some of the German States (South Germany and the Hessian states, for example) if it keeps those countries out of the orbit of Prussia and Austria.

I agree, France wouldn't mind to restore the Confederation of the Rhine or something of the sort, it's just the Prussians and Austrians would be opposed. In effect, I suspect Germany being divided between the three powers means two can always gang up on the third to prevent unification in my thinking.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

I'm assuming both Britain and Russia would move to support the Prussians here, as a means of countering Franco-Austrian influence in Germany.



I agree, France wouldn't mind to restore the Confederation of the Rhine or something of the sort, it's just the Prussians and Austrians would be opposed. In effect, I suspect Germany being divided between the three powers means two can always gang up on the third to prevent unification in my thinking.

Sure, but the Wettins can't be left with nothing at all given that that generally wasn't done at the time. If they want to beef up Prussia, the simple thing would be to swap Saxony for a Wettin Westphalia. But that would mean Prussia is no longer on the French border - something Britain and Austria wanted OTL since it would mean there was a watchdog over France.

France might happily support a Prussian swap of Westphalia for rump Saxony though. It would mean a weak state on the border run by a dynasty somewhat friendly to Napoleon, and whose trade would be under significant French influence.

As an idea completely out of left field, maybe the Wettins could be given the Ionian Islands (which Britain had a protectorate over until 1864) and Prussia gets Saxony and Westphalia. It'd hardly be an equal trade, but it'd leave the Wettins with something. Maybe Cattaro and Ragusa (Kotor and Dubrovnik) would be Wettin as well, since the British were the ones who held that territory and Austria only regained it at the Congress of Vienna.

I know the thread is focused on Europe, but I also can't stop myself from thinking about the wider global possibilities. The fall of Napoleon in April of 1814 historically allowed the British Army to detach ~15,000 men to North America for duty in the War of 1812; here, with peace a done deal in 1813, this can be done sooner with resulting strategic effects. A France that is much more powerful than OTL is also one that can engage in Imperialism sooner; @SinghSong in his Suez thread noted the various missed opportunities to have the canal built sooner. Could we see a "Greater Syria" under the French, with a canal and a protectorate of Egypt? Perhaps a French Australia here, given the advantage the canal would give them? What about the reduced Netherlands here; would Britain return the Cape to help keep them from slipping into the French sphere? Maybe they would keep the NEI instead?

Lots to ponder all around.

The British had abandoned Detroit and Tecumseh's forces were pretty much wiped out in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois by the end of 1813. I could see the British ending up with more of Maine and perhaps Wisconsin (which they still controlled) but the British don't need the headache of a United States still frustrated with them while there's still a Napoleonic France to deal with.

Napoleon had a fascination with Australia. A French West Australia could be possible.

If the Netherlands isn't getting Belgium, they'll need something else. Britain won't surrender the Cape, which they view as very important since it's on a crucial trade chokepoint. Here I figured the Dutch would hold onto Friesland. There's also Emsland and Bentheim and the British-held Heligoland I guess. Alternatively there's Ceylon, which would be profitable for the Dutch, but it's also on a major trade route and a source of important resources and I doubt the British would want to surrender it.

 

[History Learner]

Sure, but the Wettins can't be left with nothing at all given that that generally wasn't done at the time. If they want to beef up Prussia, the simple thing would be to swap Saxony for a Wettin Westphalia. But that would mean Prussia is no longer on the French border - something Britain and Austria wanted OTL since it would mean there was a watchdog over France.

I suspect Austria would me more amendable to this, given it was Metternich who played the key role in getting the Frankfurt Proposals drawn up; he was angling for a Franco-Austrian partnership to contain Russia.

France might happily support a Prussian swap of Westphalia for rump Saxony though. It would mean a weak state on the border run by a dynasty somewhat friendly to Napoleon, and whose trade would be under significant French influence.

As an idea completely out of left field, maybe the Wettins could be given the Ionian Islands (which Britain had a protectorate over until 1864) and Prussia gets Saxony and Westphalia. It'd hardly be an equal trade, but it'd leave the Wettins with something. Maybe Cattaro and Ragusa (Kotor and Dubrovnik) would be Wettin as well, since the British were the ones who held that territory and Austria only regained it at the Congress of Vienna.

Here's another suggestion I thought of: what about giving the Wettins something in Italy?

The British had abandoned Detroit and Tecumseh's forces were pretty much wiped out in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois by the end of 1813. I could see the British ending up with more of Maine and perhaps Wisconsin (which they still controlled) but the British don't need the headache of a United States still frustrated with them while there's still a Napoleonic France to deal with.

The diversion of forces is historical, just sped up by a few months. I wonder if a quicker infusion of resources could be sufficient to rollback American progress, however? Plattsburgh was well after the PoD...

Napoleon had a fascination with Australia. A French West Australia could be possible.

If the Netherlands isn't getting Belgium, they'll need something else. Britain won't surrender the Cape, which they view as very important since it's on a crucial trade chokepoint. Here I figured the Dutch would hold onto Friesland. There's also Emsland and Bentheim and the British-held Heligoland I guess. Alternatively there's Ceylon, which would be profitable for the Dutch, but it's also on a major trade route and a source of important resources and I doubt the British would want to surrender it.

All good suggestions!