Yes the Hungarians reacted to the first invasion, states tend to do that. But like the HRE was no lightweight in this period and its fractured nature means that rather than just one enemy the Mongols have to face dozens or hundreds and most of them have castles. They also have to deal with large numbers of heavy cavalry that gave them a good deal of trouble during their first invasion.
I don't think its underestimating the Mongols to say that they will face the same challenges they faced OTL only against a stronger opponent. They struggled against European castles, they found knights to be something of a challenge on the right terms and they simply were not invested enough for a long and dangerous and expensive campaign.
The changes for things to go better for them and to conquer half a continent seem far more than the changes needed for them to do even worse than OTL where there were already close calls in the Hungarian campaign.