If no Balkan Wars of 1912-1913, or Ottomans win - additional genocides besides Armenian later on?

[raharris1973]

If somehow the Balkan League states are restrained or prevented from attacking the Ottomans in the Balkan War of 1912 [perhaps not forming the Balkan League in the first place], or if the Ottomans prevail in defending and holding their European territory against them, might the presence of sizeable territories in the Empire, with very large populations of ethnic Greeks, Bulgarians, Macedonians, and Albanians, of suspect loyalty in Turkish eyes and prone to rebellion or insurgency, tempt Ottoman Turkish authorities into genocidal campaigns against one or more of these groups, somewhat similar to what the Ottoman Turks did in OTL to the Armenians and Assyrians of the empire?

Yes or no, and why?

On the other hand, I would expect without a Balkan war, or with a successful Turkish defense, many fewer massacres of Turks and Muslims in erstwhile Ottoman Rumelia in 1912-1913, and less trauma to the Ottoman empire from having to settle Balkan Muslim and Turkish refugees (Muhacirs) in the remaining parts of the empire. Maybe the Armenian genocide never occurs in this alternate timeline, or if you consider pre-1914 anti-Armenian massacres as part of the genocide, at least it never escalates to what it became post 1914?

Inspired by an old late Ottoman/early Zionist thread where someone discussing outsiders' critique of the 'zero-sum mentality' of the peoples of the near east, and met it with the retort that objectively those peoples were living in a 'zero sum reality'.

 

[raharris1973]

One vote for 'yes' so far. Interesting. Curious about the thought behind the vote. Only the voter knows.

I personally started introducing some of the 'on the one hand, on the other hand' factors in my original post supporting a yes or no vote. To add one more factor to the 'against' column for groups in Europe could be deterrence, ie deterrence of an Ottoman leadership that might desire a genocide in a perfect world from carrying it out, fearing it would immediately bring about a war with neighboring countries with related ethnic groups, and worse, great powers, that the empire is likely to lose.

 

[David Flin]

Well, the Ottoman Empire started pogroms against Greeks in their territory from 1913 onwards (some sources put it much earlier); against the Arabs from 1911 onwards (some sources put it much earlier); against the Circassians from 1800 onwards (by 1912, there weren't many Circassians left).

It's a bit unclear where additional genocides would come from.

 

[raharris1973]

Well, the Ottoman Empire started pogroms against Greeks in their territory from 1913 onwards (some sources put it much earlier); against the Arabs from 1911 onwards (some sources put it much earlier); against the Circassians from 1800 onwards (by 1912, there weren't many Circassians left).

It's a bit unclear where additional genocides would come from.

Ouch - to be Circassian. Getting it from everybody.

Or maybe when you picked your religion that was also picking your genocider. (Behind the Christian door - an Ottoman genocider or harem guard or janissary recruiter); (Behind the Muslim door - a Russian genocider.)

 

[Jackson Lennock]

There were pogroms in the Ottoman Empire against Arabs and Circassians? Can I get a link for that?



The Hamidian massacres against Armenians and Assyrians were during the mid-1890s. They were triggered by concerns that Armenian Nationalist forces would break off from the Empire as the Christians of the Balkans had. Then there was the Adana Massacre of 1909 by reactionaries who supported the countercoup. Losing the Balkan Wars (including the Empire's Second City, Salonika) triggered more of the 'destroy the internal threat' mindset. No Balkan Wars may keep liberal'ish forces in power in the Ottoman Empire and avoid the concerns about internal threats. Or maybe not.

 

[David Flin]

There were pogroms in the Ottoman Empire against Arabs and Circassians? Can I get a link for that?

Starting with:

https://cuny-hc.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/fulldisplay?context=L&vid=01CUNY_HC:CUNY_HC&tab=Everything&docid=alma990072243250106133

https://www.jstor.org/stable/23611131

The Ottoman Empire: Christian Genocides in the Middle East

‘The Thirty-Year Genocide’ appeals to readers with a limited knowledge of the Ottoman Empire and readers who have a deep understanding of the region and its history.

amuedge.com

Specific to the Circassian, we have even Wikipedia:

Circassian genocide - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That was first by Russia, then by the Ottomans.

***

They were triggered by concerns that Armenian Nationalist forces would break off from the Empire as the Christians of the Balkans had.

Could you expand on that?

 

[Roger II]

I think the likely track is ethnic cleansing and scattered progroms on the existing Hamidian pattern but probably not escalation to the 1915 death marches.

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Starting with:

https://cuny-hc.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/fulldisplay?context=L&vid=01CUNY_HC:CUNY_HC&tab=Everything&docid=alma990072243250106133

https://www.jstor.org/stable/23611131

The Ottoman Empire: Christian Genocides in the Middle East

‘The Thirty-Year Genocide’ appeals to readers with a limited knowledge of the Ottoman Empire and readers who have a deep understanding of the region and its history.

amuedge.com

Specific to the Circassian, we have even Wikipedia:

Circassian genocide - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That was first by Russia, then by the Ottomans.

***

None of those sources indicate any sort of genocide or ethnic cleansing by the Ottomans (Turks) against Circassians or Arabs. The Russians committed genocide and ethnic cleansing against the Circassians and the Turks gave them refuge and even priority over other groups. The Ottomans committed genocide and ethnic cleansing against Christian groups (i.e., not the predominately muslim Circassians).

Wikipedia mentions ethnic tensions, but that's hardly the same as ethnic cleansing and genocide.




According to the same Wikipedia page, Turkey refers to it as an Expulsion (ethnic cleansing) rather than a Genocide, but that still is in reference to how Turkey describes what Russia did.

Could you expand on that?

By triggered, I meant it in the colloquial sense (like "whipped up") and not in the notion of proximate/immediate/but-for causation. The Ottomans viewed the Greeks, Armenians, and Assyrians within the Empire as likely to crack up the empire more just as Balkan Christian nationalist groups had.

Hamidian massacres - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The sheer number of Turks, Circassians, Bosniaks, Pomaks, Crimean Tatars, and Albanians who were pushed into the Ottoman Empire as Russia and the Balkan States expanded at the Ottomans' expense was massive. According to Wikipedia, up to 632,000 Muslims were massacred (excluding 100,000 deaths in Albania) and up to 813,000 became refugees during the First Balkan War. Half a million Albanians were killed, ethnically cleansed or killed. In Serbia 15,000 to 20,000 fled or were expelled after 1816 and another 23,000 were expelled after 1862. The Greeks killed some 20,000 Muslims and Jews when they became independent, and expelled muslims as they expanded to Crete, Thessaly, and so forth.

After the Russo-Turkish War (1877-1878) almost half of the pre-war 1.5 million Muslim population of Bulgaria left (200,000 killed, the remainder fleeing to Anatolia). Another 350,000 left prior to the First Balkan War. From 1878 until 1918, between 130,000 and 150,000 Bosnian Muslims departed Bosnia to areas under Ottoman control. Somewhere between 30,000 and 70,000 muslims left Serbia in 1876-1877. Plus there's the aforementioned 1.5 million Circassians. And there's also the Muslim Georgians and Caucasus Turks kicked out after the Russian Annexation of Kars and Batumi, which was in the hundreds of thousands.

The TLDR was the Ottomans for two centuries had been receding and seen ethnic cleansings each time, and over time they were getting bigger. The Armenians and Assyrians and Greeks still in the Empire seemed like the next threat, which prompted the late Ottoman Empire to engage in the horrors that it did. The Ottoman Sultan considered killing all of the Greeks in his empire during the War of Greek Independence too, according to Wikipedia.

Persecution of Muslims during the Ottoman contraction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org