East Tennessee becomes a state in 1841-43

[Ricardolindo]

The late David Tenner showed at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...essee-becomes-a-separate-state-1841-3.532633/ that East Tennessee came close to becoming a separate state in 1841-1843.
What if it did? As David noted, despite having few slaves, East Tennessee would be a slave state. While many East Tennesseeans resented the planters of West and Middle Tennessee, they were still firm believers in black inferiority and cared little about the fate of the slaves.
However, in 1861, like in our timeline, they would oppose secession but unlike in our timeline, they would have a state government to support their wishes. However, being surrounded by secessionist states, they would certainly be invaded by the Confederacy.
Anyways, following the American Civil War, East Tennessee would become a Republican state. It would clearly stand out politically from the rest of the South.

 

[raharris1973]

The late David Tenner showed at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...essee-becomes-a-separate-state-1841-3.532633/ that East Tennessee came close to becoming a separate state in 1841-1843.
What if it did? As David noted, despite having few slaves, East Tennessee would be a slave state. While many East Tennesseeans resented the planters of West and Middle Tennessee, they were still firm believers in black inferiority and cared little about the fate of the slaves.
However, in 1861, like in our timeline, they would oppose secession but unlike in our timeline, they would have a state government to support their wishes. However, being surrounded by secessionist states, they would certainly be invaded by the Confederacy.
Anyways, following the American Civil War, East Tennessee would become a Republican state. It would clearly stand out politically from the rest of the South.

They could become a 'Republicans have a chance state' or a swing state. West Virginia was a 'swing state' post Civil War and gilded age, not a consistently Republican state. I would expect the same, only a few points lower GOP odds, in East Tennesee.

But, that is still more EVs in play for the GOP, and a bonus for them.

Presuming similarly broad political developments through the 20th century, I expect East Tennessee to go Solid Dem and stay that way from the New Deal onward, and stick there, even through one or both Eisenhower elections. If the parallelism continued, by 96 or 2000, East Tennessee would likely be GOP for talk radio driven cultural-demographic related reasons, but if Al Gore's political career was protected by a butterfly net, he might take his home state of west-central Tennessee, where the black vote would matter more. It is likely that both Tennessees would be solid GOP in every post-2000 election, unless somehow, again with the big butterfly, East Tennessee just *might* go Dem once if in the category of 2008 Obama "miracle" "reach" states that included North Carolina, and OMG - Indiana!

Please no one lecture me about intermediate causality between 1841 and the Civil War and the New Deal and 2000 and 2008. I am aware of it, and mentioned'butterfly net' several times, so you'd only be proving your inattention to detail or reading incomprehension. Thanks.

 

[Ricardolindo]

They could become a 'Republicans have a chance state' or a swing state. West Virginia was a 'swing state' post Civil War and gilded age, not a consistently Republican state. I would expect the same, only a few points lower GOP odds, in East Tennesee.

But, that is still more EVs in play for the GOP, and a bonus for them.

Presuming similarly broad political developments through the 20th century, I expect East Tennessee to go Solid Dem and stay that way from the New Deal onward, and stick there, even through one or both Eisenhower elections. If the parallelism continued, by 96 or 2000, East Tennessee would likely be GOP for talk radio driven cultural-demographic related reasons, but if Al Gore's political career was protected by a butterfly net, he might take his home state of west-central Tennessee, where the black vote would matter more. It is likely that both Tennessees would be solid GOP in every post-2000 election, unless somehow, again with the big butterfly, East Tennessee just *might* go Dem once if in the category of 2008 Obama "miracle" "reach" states that included North Carolina, and OMG - Indiana!

Please no one lecture me about intermediate causality between 1841 and the Civil War and the New Deal and 2000 and 2008. I am aware of it, and mentioned'butterfly net' several times, so you'd only be proving your inattention to detail or reading incomprehension. Thanks.

West Virginia was dominated by Democrats for decades following the Civil War or, actually, the removal of the test oaths because much of it was actually pro-Confederate. Six West Virginia counties voted for secession by over 90%. The only reason that they were included in West Virginia was because they were militarily occupied by the Union.
East Tennessee was much more solidly Unionist and was solidly Republican after the Civil War even in our timeline.

 

[raharris1973]

West Virginia was dominated by Democrats for decades following the Civil War or, actually, the removal of the test oaths

Not as much as the CSA 11 - West Virginia went for McKinley in '96 and Hughes in 1916.

Do the voting records of counties considered for separation from Tennessee in 1841, match *exactly* with Republican-voting counties in most elections (when Republicans won nationally at least) in post-Civil War decades?

 

[rosa]

Something interesting is that East Tennessee, assuming all butterflies are dead, might have actually voted for Roosevelt in 1912

 

[Ricardolindo]

How many electoral votes would East Tennessee have had? Could it have given Hayes a clear victory in 1876?