Conservatives Win a Majority in 2010?

[Torten]

Had, in 2010 David Cameron been able to win a small majority of 10 - 20 seats, what kind of effect would that have on the 2010-2015 parliament, and the next election? The Liberal Democrats might benefit out of this, as they avoid the taint of the coalition, and the Conservatives wouldn't be able to scapegoat them quite so easily.

 

[AgentRudda]

One POD is that Theresa May wouldn't have been Home Secretary. Chris Grayling had been Shadow Home Secretary, though whether he would've got the Home Office, especially after the gay couple at the B&B issue, is another matter. However, in OTL he had quite a demotion, from shadowing a Great Office of State to Employment Minister.

Some things off the top of my head: no AV referendum, Parliament reduced to 600 seats, tuition fees would've been more punitive, welfare cuts may have gone further, possibly an earlier EU referendum as well.

 

[Dom]

Where do you think the seats would come from? I think that might change things. If the Lib Dems were just as strong (stronger?) and Labour weaker, the Government may feel like they would be able to get away with different stuff than the other way, maybe.

 

[Alex Richards]

Where do you think the seats would come from? I think that might change things. If the Lib Dems were just as strong (stronger?) and Labour weaker, the Government may feel like they would be able to get away with different stuff than the other way, maybe.

Looking through the results, of the 35 seats required for a 15 seat Conservative majority based on a straight swing, 27 are Labour and 8 are Lib Dem.

Obviously it's not going to end up going like this, but I'd say the suggestion is that unless there's a big Lib Dem collapse, it's going to be tilted more towards Labour losing seats.

Of note is that in such a circumstance there's a good chance that the Lib Dems pick up Ashfield, Sheffield Central and Edinburgh Central from Labour, with possibilities of Chesterfield, Swansea West, Hull North and Rochdale as well.

So overall, probably looking at Labour around 30 seats lower, Lib Dems about 5 lower than OTL.

 

[Gorrister]

One POD is that Theresa May wouldn't have been Home Secretary. Chris Grayling had been Shadow Home Secretary, though whether he would've got the Home Office, especially after the gay couple at the B&B issue, is another matter. However, in OTL he had quite a demotion, from shadowing a Great Office of State to Employment Minister.

I think one factor in getting a Tory majority would be butterflying away Grayling's little gaffe.

 

[Torten]

One POD is that Theresa May wouldn't have been Home Secretary. Chris Grayling had been Shadow Home Secretary, though whether he would've got the Home Office, especially after the gay couple at the B&B issue, is another matter. However, in OTL he had quite a demotion, from shadowing a Great Office of State to Employment Minister.

Some things off the top of my head: no AV referendum, Parliament reduced to 600 seats, tuition fees would've been more punitive, welfare cuts may have gone further, possibly an earlier EU referendum as well.

It would be interesting to see how well the public would receive some of those policies - it might damage the "Caring society" and "Heir to Blair" image that Cameron brought up. They might not drift much further to the right than OTL, apart from on the EU - that might doom UKIP to an early grave. EU Referendum might be a 2015 Manifesto pledge, as OTL.

Of course, the Liberal Democrats might play the pro-EU card in around 2014 and might find that helps them in the Tory shires with the weak Tory vote. And Labour, under either Miliband, might try and play Cameron as the heir to Thatcher, especially if they take Tuition fees up to £15000.

 

[Alex Richards]

Of course, the Liberal Democrats might play the pro-EU card in around 2014 and might find that helps them in the Tory shires with the weak Tory vote. And Labour, under either Miliband, might try and play Cameron as the heir to Thatcher, especially if they take Tuition fees up to £15000.

And of course the Lib Dems would be voting against that one here due to the fact that even the pro-'actually we probably need some form of fees' group would think that figure is too high.

 

[Milo]

I think middle England will balwk at fees of 15k, 9k a year was mumble worthy but when your spending 50k to sent your kids to University, The Daily Mail Columnists will not be happy bunnies

 

[Elektronaut]

I'm doubtful about Grayling getting the Home Office. He was the Cameroons' notion of a right-winger, put in place to pacify the tabloids in opposition while still being reassuringly lightweight. With a majority he'd probably be demoted like he was under the cover of the coalition, however with a small majority they might try to give it to someone more obviously of the right than May.

 

[LancyIain]

I wonder what the reaction to the no money note left by Liam Byrne would have been in this TL. I think I'very read he intended it as a joke to Philip Hammond, but David Laws didn't treat it that way. If so, assuming Hammond becomes Chief Secretary, does the note become the public thing it did? My guess is yes it would, but I don't know for sure.