A world with more Ethiopias and Siams

[Jackson Lennock]

Ethiopia avoided colonization, but did so in part by making some territorial cessions to Italy (Massawa) and economic interests to France (Djibouti-Dire Diwa Railroad).
Siam avoided colonization by making strategic cessions to Britain and France.

What if there were more minor independent states which secured their independence via a mixture of strategic concessions, attempts as assimilating to western culture somewhat (like Siam forcing the whole country to switch from chopsticks to fork and knife), and positioning themselves in the middle of other powers?

Here are some countries I am thinking of:

Korea. Between Japan and Russia

Madagascar. Britain had to assent to French annexation, since it was viewed as sort of in between the two countries. France could plausibly be limited to Diego Suarez (Antsiranana) and Sainte-Marie (Nosy Baraha). It wasn't until Britain took Egypt (ironically, after Britain invited France, Italy, and even Belgium to participate in taking Egypt) that Britain acquiesced to Madagascar's interests.

Zulu Kingdom. They became a British Protectorate in 1887 and were not annexed until 1897.

Philippines. This would be more of a Cuba situation. The Americans respect Philippine independence, but get a right to a base in Subic Bay and the Country - though independent - is understood to be in the American security sphere. Alternatively, the US could only annex Luzon and leave other statelets (Visayas Federation, etc.) as independent countries.

Aceh. The Dutch did not conquer the Aceh Sultanate completely until 1903 (the final war beginning in 1898). The Acehnese looked abroad to the British, Ottomans, and Americans for support. The US supporting the independence of small southeast asian sultanates as a kind of Good Neighbor/Open Door Policy seems like a fair possibility.

Siak. Another Sumatran Sultanate. In theory, they were an independent country with Dutch advisers until 1949. I'm unsure of when they lost any autonomy whatsoever though.

Brunei. They became a British protectorate in 1888.

Sulu. The US could recognize Sulu as separate from the Philippines. Their status within the Philippines as always ambiguous.

Maguindanao. The same as with Sulu.

Sarawak. Maybe a weird inclusion, but they weren't actually made into a British Protectorate until 1888.

Kingdom of Bali. Conquered by the Dutch in 1908.

Jambi Sultanate. Conquered by the Dutch in 1904

Riau-Lingga Sultanate. An independent sultanate in the Riau islands until 1911, when the Dutch took them over.

Sultanate of Ternate. Another little sultanate that the Dutch only extinguished in 1914.

Sultanates of Surakarta and Yogyakarta. Two itty bitty Javanese sultanates considered vassals of the Dutch.

Pontianak Sultanate. A sultanate on Borneo.

Mempawah Kingdom. Another state that was sort of independent but the Dutch 'advised' it.

Lanfang Republic. A chinese confederal democratic workers state of sorts (hard to describe) under the supervision of the sultan of Pontianak and Mempawah Kingdom.

Upper Burma. Still independent until 1885. The British were concerned the French would arm them and/or make them a protectorate. Burma could be a viable buffer for Britain and France if France were to take Yunnan from China, for example.

Majeerteen Sultanate. They seem to have played the British and Italians against each other for a bit. They were a centralized modern state.

Hobyo Sultanate. Another centralized modern state, though they accepted Italian protection as a means to get weapons to do a border dispute against Zanzibar.

Geledi Sultanate. Another Somali sultanate in today's Kenya and Somalia.

Ouaddai Sultanate. Not annexed by the French until 1912.

Darfur Sultanate. Not annexed until 1916 during WWI.

Sokoto Sultanate. North Nigeria was not proclaimed until 1897 or established formally until 1900. Sokoto was still a country until 1903, when finally defeated.

Asante Kingdom. Not made a British Protectorate until 1902.

Kingdom of Kongo. Not incorporated into Portuguese Angola until 1914, though a vassal of Portugal starting in 1857.

Kasanje Kingdom. Not incorporated into Portuguese Angola until 1911.

Angoche Sultanate. Not finished off by the Portuguese and absorbed into Angola until 1910.

Kingdom of Dahomey. Not finished off by the French until 1904.

Dendi Kingdom. Not finished off by the French until 1901.

Sultanate of Bagirmi. Not absorbed into French Chad until 1907.

Bornu. Another north Nigerian state.

Mbunda Kingdom. A kingdom in Southeast Angola which was not conquered until 1917.

Morocco. Avoiding partition by making strategic land concessions, seeking American friendship, and balancing outside powers.

Tunisia. Avoiding conquest by France by making cessions to France and Italy.

 

[Coiler]

When we talked about the history of Zimbabwe here, the consensus was that it wouldn't be that hard to have it stay independent.

 

[Warthog]

When we talked about the history of Zimbabwe here, the consensus was that it wouldn't be that hard to have it stay independent.

Yes, if the Rozvi state can survive the first half of the nineteenth century, there's a good chance.

(I'm working on it)

 

[Jackson Lennock]

Thinking about it, I improperly conflated two things:

1. Countries which maintain their independence
2. Countries which maintain their independence by westernizing to a degree and balancing outside interests

Siam, for example, switched the Country over to using forks and knives and had the people running the country change how they dressed to conform to western norms. In doing so, they presented themselves as "civilized." Ethiopia likewise was a Christian Kingdom with an ancient pedigree which attracted interest from European states. Then again, so was Kongo ...


Madagascar seems like one very easy possibility.
The Burmese also seem like a possibility, as their leaders tried to modernize in the 1850s.
And in another thread I mentioned Vietnam sent emissaries to Europe after the Opium Wars.


Many countries I pointed to on the African Mainland or in Indonesia, on the other hand, seem more likely to retain their independence due to a mixture of geographic isolation (such as the Sahel States - Sokoto, Adamawa, Asante, Bornu, Ouaddai, Darfur) or the US wanting more places to trade with (Southeast Asian states not getting gobbled up by the Dutch).