Torten
Well-known member
- Location
- Wessex, UK
- Pronouns
- He/Him
This is a fairly simple question, and one which has been fairly unexplored in AH up to this point.
If the Yes campaign had won the Scottish Independence how would the resulting negotations between the (still devolved) Scottish Government and the British government have panned out, and what kind of impact would it have had on British politics? It's pretty hard to predict what could have happened, but I've bullet pointed some ideas below.
1. Would David Cameron resign after a Yes vote? I think he would, given he had been actively supportive of the No campaign. He would probably stay on til the end of the year in order to allow the election of a new Conservative party leader. Theresa May and Michael Gove might have been strong contenders - Boris Johnson wasn't in Parliament at the time and George Osbourne would have probably been too unpopular to run.
2. Would the coalition have collapsed, and would a general election have been held in 2015? I suspect the coalition would have held together, at least until 2015. Given that pre-referendum the plan was to have Scotland leave in 2016, the Government might attempt to argue that the next general election should be held in 2016, after Scotland left. This may or may not work - Labour would likely oppose this for obivous reasons.
3. Would Shetland and Orkney demand a special status? In OTL they voted No by about 65%, and given that Crown Dependency status was being peddled before the referendum I think it is highly likely they would lobby for some form of special status. I also think there would be some form of campaign in the Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway to remain part of the UK, given they voted No by 65% OTL. This might be a potential flash point in negotations.
4. Would Scotland remained part of the EU? The Yes campaign and the SN[ certainly wanted to, and while the EU proved rather evasive before the Referendum and said they would need to reapply, I suspect attitudes would soften after the vote, and the EU would decide that some kind of agreement could be made, such as Scotland joining EFTA on the day of independence, or some kind of transitional arrangement where Scotland remains in the customs union for a period of time?
5. Would a second referendum have been held on the independence agreement? Depending on the attitude of the British and Scottish government and how negotations proceed this could happen.
Any thoughts? I'm of the opinion that the aftermath of a Yes! vote would be Brexit on steroids!
If the Yes campaign had won the Scottish Independence how would the resulting negotations between the (still devolved) Scottish Government and the British government have panned out, and what kind of impact would it have had on British politics? It's pretty hard to predict what could have happened, but I've bullet pointed some ideas below.
1. Would David Cameron resign after a Yes vote? I think he would, given he had been actively supportive of the No campaign. He would probably stay on til the end of the year in order to allow the election of a new Conservative party leader. Theresa May and Michael Gove might have been strong contenders - Boris Johnson wasn't in Parliament at the time and George Osbourne would have probably been too unpopular to run.
2. Would the coalition have collapsed, and would a general election have been held in 2015? I suspect the coalition would have held together, at least until 2015. Given that pre-referendum the plan was to have Scotland leave in 2016, the Government might attempt to argue that the next general election should be held in 2016, after Scotland left. This may or may not work - Labour would likely oppose this for obivous reasons.
3. Would Shetland and Orkney demand a special status? In OTL they voted No by about 65%, and given that Crown Dependency status was being peddled before the referendum I think it is highly likely they would lobby for some form of special status. I also think there would be some form of campaign in the Scottish Borders and Dumfries and Galloway to remain part of the UK, given they voted No by 65% OTL. This might be a potential flash point in negotations.
4. Would Scotland remained part of the EU? The Yes campaign and the SN[ certainly wanted to, and while the EU proved rather evasive before the Referendum and said they would need to reapply, I suspect attitudes would soften after the vote, and the EU would decide that some kind of agreement could be made, such as Scotland joining EFTA on the day of independence, or some kind of transitional arrangement where Scotland remains in the customs union for a period of time?
5. Would a second referendum have been held on the independence agreement? Depending on the attitude of the British and Scottish government and how negotations proceed this could happen.
Any thoughts? I'm of the opinion that the aftermath of a Yes! vote would be Brexit on steroids!