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WI: USA goes to war with Japan in 1937?

SinghSong

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What happened IOTL:

A major reason that the Chinese army held onto the besieged city of Shanghai as long as it did, even though it was on the brink of collapse, was that China was hoping for Western intervention in the Sino-Japanese War. Western nations had been paying little attention to China's plight since they were preoccupied with the situation in Europe. In addition, most Western nations had little prospect that their intervention would help China in the long run because they believed that China would eventually lose. If China was deemed militarily weak, economically backward, and politically disunited by Western powers, it would not make sense for them to help China when it seemed bound for defeat by Japan. Thus, Chiang Kai-shek had to devote everything China had to offer to make sure the Western powers knew that the present conflict between China and Japan was a major war, not a collection of inconsequential "incidents" as had been the case previously. Based on this political strategy, Chiang Kai-shek ordered his troops to fight to the death, in an attempt to arouse international sympathy and cause the international community to adopt measures that would help China and sanction Japan.

On September 12, one month after the Battle of Shanghai began, China formally brought the case against Japan to the League of Nations. Again, the League was not able to formulate any effective sanctions against Japan, other than an October 4 statement that gave China "spiritual support". The United States was not a member of the League, and Great Britain and France were reluctant to challenge Japan. But of all the major Western powers, only the United States, since it wasn't embroiled in the volatile European affairs, seemed both capable of confronting Japan and willing to do so. On October 5, President Franklin D. Roosevelt gave the Quarantine Speech, calling for the United States to help nations fight against aggressor nations. This speech had a tremendous effect on raising China's morale, and since America seemed willing to confront Japan, the British representative suggested closing the League case and convening the Nine Power Treaty Conference, scheduling it to begin in early November. Since the Nine-Power Treaty was signed as a result of the Washington Naval Conference of 1922, the opening of the Conference automatically brought the United States into the effort to rein in Japanese aggression.

American entry into the international response brought new hope to the Chinese, and Chiang Kai-shek again reiterated the need for his troops to hold on to Shanghai to prove that China was indeed worth fighting for. But by mid-October, the Chinese situation in Shanghai had become increasingly dire, and the Japanese had made significant gains. The vital town of Dachang fell on October 26, and the Chinese were forced to withdraw from metropolitan Shanghai. But with the Nine Power Treaty Conference about to begin, Chiang Kai-shek ordered his troops to stay in the Shanghai battlefield, instead of retreating to the Wufu and Xicheng Lines to protect Nanjing, and also left one lone battalion to defend the Sihang Warehouse in metropolitan Shanghai. Because Shanghai was the most important Chinese city in Western eyes, the troops had to fight and hold on to the city as long as possible, rather than moving toward the defense lines along nameless towns en route to Nanjing. And on November 3, the Conference finally convened in Brussels- with Japan refusing to participate in the Conference, maintaining that its dispute with China was outside the purview of the Nine-Power Treaty.

While the Western powers were in session to mediate the situation, the Chinese troops were making their final stand in Shanghai and had all hopes for a Western intervention that would save China from collapse. However, the Conference dragged on with little progress; President Roosevelt and Secretary Hull had gave instructions to Norman H. Davis, the U.S. delegate to the conference, stating that the first objective of the foreign policy of the United States was national security, and that consequently the U.S. sought to keep peace and promote the maintenance of peace; that the USA as a signatory to the Kellogg-Briand Pact had renounced war as an instrument of national policy; and that "public opinion in the United States has expressed its emphatic determination that the United States keep out of war". Mr. Davis was instructed to keep in mind the interest of the United States in peace in the Pacific and in the Far East, as evidenced by the Washington Naval Conference, the statements relating to foreign policy made by the President in his Chicago address of October 5, and this Government's statement of October 6 on the controversy between China and Japan. In the view of the US Government the primary function of the Conference was "to provide a forum for constructive discussion, to formulate and suggest possible bases of settlement, and to endeavor to bring the parties together through peaceful negotiation".

However, it was also emphasized to Davis that, if the U.S. were to avoid an ultimate serious clash with Japan, some practical means must be found to check Japanese conquest, and to make effective the collective will of the powers which desired the settlement of international controversies by peaceful means; that the Conference might be an agency for bringing to bear upon Japan every moral pressure directed toward bringing about a change in Japanese attitude and policy. Finally, Davis was instructed to "observe closely the trend of public opinion in the United States and take full account thereof." On November 15, the Conference adopted a declaration affirming that the representatives of 15 states considered the conflict between China and Japan to be of concern to all countries parties to the Nine-Power Treaty and the Kellogg-Briand Pact. In the presence of this difference between the views of the Conference and the Japanese Government, the Conference considered that there was no opportunity at the time for carrying out its terms of reference so far as they related to bringing about peace by agreement. And on November 24 1937, the Nine-Power Treaty Conference convened for the last time and then adjourned indefinitely, without producing any measures that would stop Japanese aggression.

At this point, the Washington System had completely collapsed. In its final declaration, the Conference stated that it strongly reaffirmed the principles of the Nine-Power Treaty; that it believed that a satisfactory settlement between China and Japan could not be achieved by direct negotiation between the parties to the conflict alone and that an acceptable agreement could be achieved only by consultation with other powers principally concerned; that it strongly urged that hostilities be suspended and resort be had to peaceful processes; that the Conference deemed it advisable temporarily to suspend its sittings; that the conflict remained, however, a matter of concern to all the powers assembled at Brussels; and that the Conference would be called together again when it was considered that deliberations could be advantageously resumed (i.e, never). The United States delegate reported at the conclusion of the Conference that it had demonstrated the "unwillingness of Japan to resort to methods of conciliation" and that the Japanese continued to insist that the issues between Japan and China were exclusive to those two countries; whereas the Conference powers, with the exception of Italy, affirmed that the situation was of concern to all members of the family of nations. And with all hope having been lost, Shanghai was finally abandoned by KMT China, with the weakened Wufu and Xicheng defense lines greatly contributing towards the subsequent Japanese 'Rape of Nanjing'.

What happens instead ITTL:

After President Franklin D. Roosevelt gives the Quarantine Speech on October 5th 1937, calling for the United States to help nations fight against aggressor nations, the British representative's suggestion of closing the League case and convening the Nine Power Treaty Conference is never taken up ITTL, with the European Great Powers far too preoccupied by goings-on in Europe. And though the option of convening the Nine Power Treaty Conference as "an agency for bringing to bear upon Japan every moral pressure directed toward bringing about a change in Japanese attitude and policy" having been closed off to the Americans, Roosevelt still decides to act upon his sentiment that "some practical means must be found to check Japanese conquest"; electing to impose harsher sanctions against the Japanese, and resort to providing loan assistance for war supply contracts to the Chinese. And President Roosevelt also reluctantly accepts the suggestions of the Commander of the US Asiatic Fleet, Admiral Yarnell (who'd already made Shanghai his base of operation on 13 August 1937, residing aboard the presidential flagship USS Augusta after having moored it in a prominent position off the Shanghai Bund, with the flagship's Marine Detachment having been sent ashore to aid the 4th Marines in establishing defensive positions to keep hostilities out of the neutral enclaves), to dispatch a division of heavy cruisers to carry out the evacuation.

Rather than "bringing about a change in Japanese attitude and policy", "to keep peace and promote the maintenance of peace", however, these moves by the USA greatly anger and enrage the Japanese military, whilst greatly boosting the morale and hopes of the Chinese. And the situation escalates far more rapidly, before those heavy cruisers can arrive. IOTL, tensions and aggressions only escalated to the point where Japanese naval planes sank the US gunboat Panay and three Standard Oil tankers in the Yangtze River north of Nanking on 12 December 1937, in the USS Panay Incident, long after the Battle of Shanghai and international arbitration regarding the Second Sino-Japanese War had come to an end (with US Navy cryptographers having intercepted and decrypted traffic relating to the attacking planes which clearly indicated that they were under orders during the attack, and that it had been intentional; though this information was kept classified at the time, knowing that public knowledge of this would propel the US into war against Japan in the same manner that the sinking of the USS Maine had against Spain, with the Japanese government's formal apology and offer of indemnity to settle the incident being accepted by the US in April 1938).

But ITTL, those same renegade factions within the Japanese military who wanted to force the U.S. into an active conflict so that the Japanese could once and for all drive the U.S. out of China, and who gave the order to sink the USS Panay IOTL, are further strengthened, emboldened and galvanized by the 'increased provocation' of America's perceived support of KMT China, to the extent where they instead give the orders to attack vessels of the Yangtze River Patrol present in the region in early November. In the ensuing attacks by Japanese naval planes, while the USS Augusta is left largely unmolested for the time being, not only the USS Panay, but the USS Oahu, USS Tutuila and USS Luzon as well, are all bombed and strafed on the same day, with two of these being sunk. And with the American public already agitated over reported Japanese atrocities, word of these attacks against the Yangtze Patrol by the IJN, with the Battle of Shanghai still ongoing, are met with disbelief and sheer outrage in the USA.

With US public opinion swinging to be overwhelmingly in favor of war against Japan in the aftermath, there's more than enough catalyst for Roosevelt's administration to take this consensus into account; and whilst the Japanese still attempt to apologize, protesting that their attacks had been unintentional and that their pilots never saw any American flags on the vessels they'd attacked, as they claimed (equally falsely) IOTL, their efforts to mollify the Americans fall on increasingly deaf ears. International relations between the USA and Japan continue to rapidly deteriorate beyond the point of no return, and tensions continue to ramp up, with the USA severing diplomatic ties with Japan; before the USA ultimately declares war against Japan, before 1937 comes to an end.

*****

So then, in this scenario, how do you reckon such a conflict'd go? How invested do you think either Japan or the USA'd be in this conflict, and what terms of victory, or defeat might they be willing to accept to bring it to an end? Might any other nations be inclined to join in, on either Japan's or the USA's side (and how many- enough to snowball into TTL's version of WW2)? And how massive an impact could this wind up having; how much do you reckon that the course of WW2 and world history might diverge from OTL?
 
Not sure on how plausible the POD is but just musing on it

Its kind of interesting because the USN's massive OTL fleet building program which made the OTL Pacific War unlosable hasn't started but the IJN is missing a lot of carriers and some of its strongest battleships as well and with European nations undistracted especially the British and Soviets and the war in China escalating it's simply not going to be able to embark on anything like its OTL conquest spree.

I'm not even sure where the major battles will be fought in this ATL though, its hard to see the Americans risking everything on a mad dash to fight the IJN in Japanese waters but they also probably have an easier time using neutral nations to use to secure supply lines to China. I could see them deciding to settle on an Embargo of Japan, reinforcing their possessions in the Pacific and building up their forces and supplying China, meanwhile Japan would probably be trying its all to goad the Americans into a major naval battle on their own terms.
 
Not sure on how plausible the POD is but just musing on it

Its kind of interesting because the USN's massive OTL fleet building program which made the OTL Pacific War unlosable hasn't started but the IJN is missing a lot of carriers and some of its strongest battleships as well and with European nations undistracted especially the British and Soviets and the war in China escalating it's simply not going to be able to embark on anything like its OTL conquest spree.

I'm not even sure where the major battles will be fought in this ATL though, its hard to see the Americans risking everything on a mad dash to fight the IJN in Japanese waters but they also probably have an easier time using neutral nations to use to secure supply lines to China. I could see them deciding to settle on an Embargo of Japan, reinforcing their possessions in the Pacific and building up their forces and supplying China, meanwhile Japan would probably be trying its all to goad the Americans into a major naval battle on their own terms.

Think it's fairly plausible; the USS Panay Incident IOTL was deliberately covered up by the US, and accepted as accidental in spite of them having been aware that it'd been ordered, explicitly because the officials 'in the chain' believed that revealing the truth of the situation would inevitably cause diplomatic ties with Japan to be severed and war to be declared against them. Magnify the scale of the attacks, with multiple vessels of the Yangtze Patrol being attacked and sunk at the same time, and you'd make that cover-up impossible, as well as magnifying the US public outcry.

IMHO, it's also kind of interesting because then you'd have to wonder- how long would TTL's Second Sino-Japanese War last, with the USA having effectively joined the war on the Chinese side in the first six months of the conflict, in late 1937? Like you said, it's hard to say where the major battles'd be fought ITTL's 'Japanese-American War', but it's also hard to say how much manpower and resources either the USA or Japan'd commit to these battles, and the conflict in general- approving bombing campaigns against each others' civilian populations seems unlikely IMHO, especially from the off.

And after this conflict, especially if it's brought to a conclusion and ends before TTL's Invasion of Poland, might the USA and Japan respectively be less likely to participate in that conflict at all, especially if they've incurred heavy losses and costs in the process of fighting each other? Might TTL's Japan ironically end up being far stronger, wealthier and more powerful than OTL, on account of effectively being ejected from China (excluding Manchukuo) within only a year or two, and no longer having to meet the materials costs and expenses of continuing their doomed war to try and conquer it for themselves?
 
Think it's fairly plausible; the USS Panay Incident IOTL was deliberately covered up by the US, and accepted as accidental in spite of them having been aware that it'd been ordered, explicitly because the officials 'in the chain' believed that revealing the truth of the situation would inevitably cause diplomatic ties with Japan to be severed and war to be declared against them. Magnify the scale of the attacks, with multiple vessels of the Yangtze Patrol being attacked and sunk at the same time, and you'd make that cover-up impossible, as well as magnifying the US public outcry.

IMHO, it's also kind of interesting because then you'd have to wonder- how long would TTL's Second Sino-Japanese War last, with the USA having effectively joined the war on the Chinese side in the first six months of the conflict, in late 1937? Like you said, it's hard to say where the major battles'd be fought ITTL's 'Japanese-American War', but it's also hard to say how much manpower and resources either the USA or Japan'd commit to these battles, and the conflict in general- approving bombing campaigns against each others' civilian populations seems unlikely IMHO, especially from the off.

And after this conflict, especially if it's brought to a conclusion and ends before TTL's Invasion of Poland, might the USA and Japan respectively be less likely to participate in that conflict at all, especially if they've incurred heavy losses and costs in the process of fighting each other? Might TTL's Japan ironically end up being far stronger, wealthier and more powerful than OTL, on account of effectively being ejected from China (excluding Manchukuo) within only a year or two, and no longer having to meet the materials costs and expenses of continuing their doomed war to try and conquer it for themselves?
Its all just unknowable IMO. Especially because like the discussions and planning pre-war are not much help because OTL WW2 basically saw them scrapped from the offset and a lot of improvising and adaption.
 
Its all just unknowable IMO. Especially because like the discussions and planning pre-war are not much help because OTL WW2 basically saw them scrapped from the offset and a lot of improvising and adaption.
Even so, whilst the trajectory of such a conflict wouldn't be particularly straightforward or predictable (with those same aspects being unknowable with regards to any hypothetical AH war, since "no plan survives first contact with the enemy"), I reckon it could still be an interesting scenario to speculate about nontheless; much the same as if the policy of appeasement hadn't been pursued with regards to Nazi Germany.
 
It's an interesting premise. I'm reminded of a TL that was posted at AH.com back in the day, Thirty Extra Feet: The History of the Pacific War 1938-1944 which, although it had a different POD, still imagined an early outbreak of war between Japan and the US.

Might TTL's Japan ironically end up being far stronger, wealthier and more powerful than OTL, on account of effectively being ejected from China (excluding Manchukuo) within only a year or two, and no longer having to meet the materials costs and expenses of continuing their doomed war to try and conquer it for themselves?
It's a good question, but a good deal of the answer depends not on the government in Tokyo, but on the commanding officers in the field, who by then had become accustomed to creating faits accomplis on the ground.
 
It would be a very interesting match-up, for sure. The US doesn’t blatantly outclass the Japanese as it would do later in OTL, but still has a LOT of potential power just waiting to be generated. (Not that that stopped the Japanese in OTL, anyway.) The Japanese would have boots on the ground in China, as would Britain and France; the US has bases in the Philippines, but it would take time to muster the power to tear the Japanese to shreds.

The real question is what Britain and France would do. The two powers were weaker relative to Japan than they would have liked, but the gap wasn’t that wide. The British could easily support the US in the war and, from a geopolitical point of view, that’s precisely what they should do. The US is less threatening, at least in the short run, than the Japanese, while a Japanese victory would do considerable damage to Britain’s interests in the Far East. I suspect the UK would provide all support short of outright war, if it got its way, or the Japanese decide this is going to happen anyway and striking first.

Even if Britain is not involved openly in the war, the US will demand the UK stops supplying Japan and make the same demand of France, the Dutch, etc. That might be enough to get the Japanese striking at the rest of the western powers, if only to take resources they desperately need.

Assuming so, I’d expect the Japanese to pick off the remaining European outposts in China very quickly, cutting China off from its outside backers. Indochina offers a prospective land route – can the French defend it? Probably not, depending on what happens in Europe. France won’t be happy to have UK troops in Indochina, even if they are planning to leave after the war. The Japanese probably still push into Malaya and take Singapore, but it might be harder in ATL because the UK doesn’t have to worry about war in Europe. (Or there might be fewer troops in the region because Singapore wasn’t as built up in ATL.) The real threat would be the Japanese striking at the Philippines in hopes of cutting the US off from its bases – can they take the islands? If yes, the US will be driven back for a year or so. If no, the Japanese are in deep shit.

Japan will find the war incredibly costly as its enemies start striking back, first with submarines (which the UK planned to do in the event of a war with Japan in 1938), and then with naval and land power. The UK will be stronger as more troops can be sent from Europe – the US, of course, will be starting the OTL mobilisation years early. The fighting will start to drain Japan to breaking point by 1939 if not before then, while Stalin will probably be considering an attack on the Japanese in Manchuria. (The Japanese would have to be insane to provoke the USSR as they did in OTL).

The long-term results depend on Europe. Hitler will still be in power. (Ironically, the Spanish Civil War might have ended earlier than OTL.) The UK probably won’t give a guarantee to Poland in 1939, assuming events get that far. France might take a tougher line in 1938 as the UK will be distracted in the Far East, raising the spectre of France having to fight the Germans alone.

Lots of interesting ways this could go ...

Chris
 
Can Japan prosecute this war (I'm assuming it has an embargo by European empires who decide "America's bigger business") without seizing colonies like it did in the 40s? If not, can it pull off the same massive blow four years earlier, with US and US-backed Chinese forces fighting it elsewhere, and with no wars dominating Europe's attention?
 
Can Japan prosecute this war (I'm assuming it has an embargo by European empires who decide "America's bigger business") without seizing colonies like it did in the 40s? If not, can it pull off the same massive blow four years earlier, with US and US-backed Chinese forces fighting it elsewhere, and with no wars dominating Europe's attention?

I doubt it. The war will probably be more localised.

Chris
 
Can Japan prosecute this war (I'm assuming it has an embargo by European empires who decide "America's bigger business") without seizing colonies like it did in the 40s? If not, can it pull off the same massive blow four years earlier, with US and US-backed Chinese forces fighting it elsewhere, and with no wars dominating Europe's attention?
One of the things, though, is that the elements in the Japanese military responsible for ordering the attack on the USS Panay, who did so with the deliberate objective of forcing the US into an active conflict with Japan, were a fringe renegade faction at that time; the Japanese government, and the upper echelons of Japan's military leadership, wanted to avoid war with the USA altogether, and were prepared to take full responsibility and offer concessions to mollify the Americans enough to avert it IOTL. ITTL, the attacks on the Yangtze Patrol are too big, and with multiple ships being sunk, no-one'll believe the claims from the Japanese government in Tokyo or the Japanese Navy that the attacks had been unintentional.

But these claims would almost certainly still be made; and whilst there's no telling how much ill will against the US might be generated by a hostile US response, one can imagine that they'd know full well they wouldn't have a chance against all of the other signatories of the Nine Power Treaty combined (excluding Italy, who took their side IOTL's Nine Power Treaty Conference IOTL, and obstructed any and all proposed measures that would stop Japanese aggression; with Il Duce deeming his debt to the Japanese- for having denied aid to, or support for, Ethiopia during the 2nd Italo-Ethiopian War- fully repaid for this favor, and subsequently reneging on all the other terms of the Italo-Japanese Friendship Agreement they'd signed back then).

As well as knowing full well that going out to seize colonies, like it did in the 40s IOTL, would be guaranteed to bring all of the Western Powers into this conflict against it, especially without wars dominating Europe's attention (at least until Czechoslovakia happens, at any rate). I know it sounds ASB, but there'd be good odds that the renegade faction of the Imperial Japanese Navy who'd ordered the attack/s on the Yangtze Patrol, trying to force the US into an active conflict with Japan, could be targeted and forced to commit seppuku for their actions here; with the Japanese government prioritizing a peace agreement with the USA ASAP, over the increasing escalation of a conflict against the US (and anyone else aligned with them) into a total war.
 
I suspect the UK would provide all support short of outright war, if it got its way, or the Japanese decide this is going to happen anyway and striking first.

Even if Britain is not involved openly in the war, the US will demand the UK stops supplying Japan and make the same demand of France, the Dutch, etc. That might be enough to get the Japanese striking at the rest of the western powers, if only to take resources they desperately need.

Assuming so, I’d expect the Japanese to pick off the remaining European outposts in China very quickly, cutting China off from its outside backers.

I really don't think the Japanese will be this recklessly and stupidly bold to take on that many powers, without a European war simultaneously going on, providing them with the semi-plausible illusion they could win because their enemies are tied down by Germany, Italy, etc.

Attacking all the unencumbered western powers at once in 1937 or early 1938 would sort of be like the Japanese imitating the magical thinking of the Chinese Boxers only 38 years after they got smashed. They'd be inviting a global 7 nation alliance (China, US, Britain, France, Netherlands, Australia, and probably the USSR) to crash down upon them. The fact that the Japanese do have some aircraft carriers, machineguns, battleships, aircraft, and tankettes instead of the spears, Kung Fu, and old matchlocks and cannons the Boxer rebels had would just be a matter of mere detail and timing of doom once you're dealing with that many unencumbered enemies.

Assuming so, I’d expect the Japanese to pick off the remaining European outposts in China very quickly, cutting China off from its outside backers.

No way the Japanese could get as far as Burma under these circumstances. It may be questionable if they could finish off Indochina fully given all the clean-up in China, Philippines and island campaigns, and very real risk of the Soviets and Mongolians starting a Manchurian campaign.

France won’t be happy to have UK troops in Indochina, even if they are planning to leave after the war.

Some uptight arseholes in the French Indochina administration and in the French government would have complaints, but UK troops in Indochina would be super, super far down Paris's worry list in these circumstances. Globally minded Frenchmen would be happy to have British help in defending their Indochina colony, and to be seen helping the British and Americans in the Pacific. They would actively hope that UK troops in Indochina sets a precedent for UK troops in France to guard against Germany and Italy!
 
and subsequently reneging on all the other terms of the Italo-Japanese Friendship Agreement they'd signed back then)

What kind of anti-Japanese reneging did the Italians end up doing?

I know actually the Italians who earlier in the 1930s worked on Chinese air force projects later gave away all their info to the Japanese, to Tokyo's delight.
 
What kind of anti-Japanese reneging did the Italians end up doing?

I know actually the Italians who earlier in the 1930s worked on Chinese air force projects later gave away all their info to the Japanese, to Tokyo's delight.
The original terms of the Japanese agreement with Italy, whereby Japan agreed to go against popular Japanese sentiment, and abandon Ethiopia to its fate, was that in exchange for Japan's recognition of Italy's annexation of Ethiopia, Italy'd grant recognition to Manchukuo and "most favored nation status" to Japan in Ethiopia and Italy's other African colonies, with assurances that there would be no discrimination against Japanese imports in the
Italian protectorates, facilitating continued development of Japan's economic and commercial developments there. And Italy offered to allow Japan to retain its legation in Ethiopia in exchange for permission to establish a legation of its own in Manchukuo.

After the Nine Power Treaty Conference, Japanese imports to Italian Africa were cut off, with the Japanese legation expelled from Italian-occupied Ethiopia. And Imperial Japan's 'most favored nation status' as a trade partner of Fascist Italy was never granted, with the protectionist trade barriers preventing Japanese export access to the markets controlled by Italy only increasing, rather than being reduced as they were supposed to have been in accordance with the agreement.

There was still some military co-operation between the two, which increased as the Anti-Comintern Pact coalesced into the Axis Powers. But the free trade and economic agreements were pretty much entirely abandoned- mostly due to Italy's refusal to uphold its side of the bargain, continuing to label the perceived expansion of Japanese imperialism worldwide by means of "commercial dumping" as a "peril to the white race". And the alleged disparity of Japan's aggression against China, "whose civilization cannot be compared with that of Ethiopia", with Italy’s "noble civilizing mission" against the "Black savages" of Ethiopia, was cited as the primary justification for this.
 
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