WI: Turkish Civil War

[Venocara]

The period between 1976 and 1980 was one of great political tension in Turkey resulting in many episodes of violence between far-left and far-right paramilitaries along with Maoist and Kurdish insurgents, only partially dying down with the 1980 coup d’etat. However, it is not always the case that a coup brings stability to a state and as such I would like to ask, what is the likelihood of a civil war in this period with a POD after the coup? If it’s possible, how long would it last, what would it look like and who would be involved?

 

[Catalunya]

The period between 1976 and 1980 was one of great political tension in Turkey resulting in many episodes of violence between far-left and far-right paramilitaries along with Maoist and Kurdish insurgents, only partially dying down with the 1980 coup d’etat. However, it is not always the case that a coup brings stability to a state and as such I would like to ask, what is the likelihood of a civil war in this period with a POD after the coup? If it’s possible, how long would it last, what would it look like and who would be involved?

You probably need someone else to lead the coup, and have it be more like the one in 1960, which left behind a more democratic constitution. Since you want a POD after the coup, you could maybe have Evren die in a freak accident, and be replaced by another general, who just hands back power to the politicians after shooting a few communists and fascists. They could order Demirel and Ecevit to play nice and form a grand coalition, which imo would only further political violence. You also need to find a way to avoid having so many activists flee Turkey to Western Europe following the coup.

 

[Torten]

I'm presuming that if the country launched into a full scale civil war between the military and the left wing revolutionaries, then it would likely turn into a major cold war battle ground between the USA and USSR.

Additionally, I presume the Greeks and Cypriots might use it as a opportunity to drive the Turkish army off of Cyprus.

 

[Venocara]

You probably need someone else to lead the coup, and have it be more like the one in 1960, which left behind a more democratic constitution. Since you want a POD after the coup, you could maybe have Evren die in a freak accident, and be replaced by another general, who just hands back power to the politicians after shooting a few communists and fascists. They could order Demirel and Ecevit to play nice and form a grand coalition, which imo would only further political violence. You also need to find a way to avoid having so many activists flee Turkey to Western Europe following the coup.

Perhaps Evren dies in a helicopter crash? In that case, what do you think would be the result of someone like Haydar Saltik, Nurettin Ersin or perhaps a cadre of more junior officers seizing power?

Additionally, I presume the Greeks and Cypriots might use it as a opportunity to drive the Turkish army off of Cyprus.

This sounds quite possible; do you think that this would lead to war between Greece and Turkey in this future?

 

[Catalunya]

Perhaps Evren dies in a helicopter crash? In that case, what do you think would be the result of someone like Haydar Saltik, Nurettin Ersin or perhaps a cadre of more junior officers seizing power?

Haydar Saltık was the architect of the coup and the ‘for every leftist we kill, we kill a rightist to keep things equal’ policy. Furthermore, he was the guy that introduced Turkey to neoliberalism during the coup. I don’t think much would change if he was at the forefront instead.

Nurettin Ersin was just an empty suit who’s only achievement was fixing relations between Turkish intelligence and the army in the late 70s.

I'm presuming that if the country launched into a full scale civil war between the military and the left wing revolutionaries, then it would likely turn into a major cold war battle ground between the USA and USSR.

Additionally, I presume the Greeks and Cypriots might use it as a opportunity to drive the Turkish army off of Cyprus.

A coup that led to more right-wing junior officials could work, though there are no names that come up to me. Most of the army distrusted the right almost as much as the left because of the occasional flirtations of Demirel and Türkeş with Islamists, who were seen as bigger enemies than the communists. It wasn’t until the late 80s when ideological differences started becoming the cass.

I don’t think left-wing revolutonaries had either the numbers, nor the public support to wage a civil war against a junta. At best (or worst I should say) it would just be something like the Troubles.

 

[Venocara]

Nurettin Ersin was just an empty suit who’s only achievement was fixing relations between Turkish intelligence and the army in the late 70s.

If he’s just an empty suit is it not possible that events might run away from him if power falls into his lap?

A coup that led to more right-wing junior officials could work, though there are no names that come up to me.

There were fears amongst senior officers that if they did not act quickly junior officers might “take things into their own hands”, perhaps this could happen?

I don’t think left-wing revolutonaries had either the numbers, nor the public support to wage a civil war against a junta

The Soviet Union is right there after all, and I’m sure that they’d be perfectly willing to help…

I also know that Ecevit knew about the potential for a coup as early as June 1979, is it possible for him to do anything that could cause things to fall apart?

 

[Catalunya]

If he’s just an empty suit is it not possible that events might run away from him if power falls into his lap?



There were fears amongst senior officers that if they did not act quickly junior officers might “take things into their own hands”, perhaps this could happen?



The Soviet Union is right there after all, and I’m sure that they’d be perfectly willing to help…

I also know that Ecevit knew about the potential for a coup as early as June 1979, is it possible for him to do anything that could cause things to fall apart?

I don’t think empty suit was the right word to describe him as any more. He was just more of the same, though could be more incompetent or more ruthless. I honestly don’t know enough about him to really judge him on that, though he was generally a well respected man.

You’d need a POD before the coup to have junior officials to lead it, or have the entire security council die somehow, which would lead to junior officials taking over, and could radicalize them. Türkeş had already installed some of his men by then, but they had not yet reached any noteworthy status.

I’m not sure if the Soviets would want to aid the revolutionaries too clearly, as Turkey is a NATO-member and Reagan becomes president in 81. The leftists in Turkey were also hopelessly prone to internal fighting between the Tankies, Maoists, and the occasional Hoxhaists. The right was much more unified, but lacked numbers. With state backing they would unfortunately make mince meat of the left.

Ecevit was aware of the coup, but was also too proud of a bastard to make a deal with Demirel that he did not agree with. The latter was just a cunt who downplayed the risk, and thought he had things under control, as his coalition partners just threw gasoline on the fire. They could maybe strike a deal where they appoint some admiral as president, and bring the presidential election to an end, which leaves the military officials without their main casus belli for the coup. It could lead to things worsening in Turkey, as the PM would change every few months, and the right would continue to arm their side while in power, while the left would just continue ignoring the revolutionaries and their Soviet weapons, and go after fascist millitias instead.

 

[Dan1988]

The Soviet Union is right there after all, and I’m sure that they’d be perfectly willing to help…

The problem with that is by the time the coup happens, the USSR was already committed to the meat-grinder/bloodbath that was Afghanistan. In addition, depending on where you place the POD, you'd also be running headlong into Soviet instability, with a failing economy due to a massive drop in oil prices and a tendency to have its leaders just simply die in quick succession (until Gorbachev, that is). So Soviet priorities would be elsewhere; despite the reputation and prestige of its armed forces, during those uncertain times (particularly with Afghanistan) the best option would be trying to become very cautious about such engagements, since the capacity to be "perfectly willing to help" simply was not there.

 

[Venocara]

In addition, depending on where you place the POD, you'd also be running headlong into Soviet instability, with a failing economy due to a massive drop in oil prices and a tendency to have its leaders just simply die in quick succession (until Gorbachev, that is).

The POD would almost certainly be before Brezhnev’s death as by 1982 Turkey is back on the road to stability. With a POD in 1980 the Soviets have only been in Afghanistan for a matter of months and I assume it isn’t clear by this point just how much of a mess they’ve gotten themselves into. Plus, whilst Reagan does become President in 1981 this is months after the OTL coup, and even then it isn’t clear this early exactly how far he can be pushed. I think in the early stages at least the Soviets would be able to provide some support.

They could maybe strike a deal where they appoint some admiral as president, and bring the presidential election to an end, which leaves the military officials without their main casus belli for the coup. It could lead to things worsening in Turkey, as the PM would change every few months, and the right would continue to arm their side while in power, while the left would just continue ignoring the revolutionaries and their Soviet weapons, and go after fascist millitias instead.

Assuming that this would have to take place before the OTL coup do you think this alone or the young officers’ coup would be enough for a civil war or would it need some combination of the two?

 

[Catalunya]

The POD would almost certainly be before Brezhnev’s death as by 1982 Turkey is back on the road to stability. With a POD in 1980 the Soviets have only been in Afghanistan for a matter of months and I assume it isn’t clear by this point just how much of a mess they’ve gotten themselves into. Plus, whilst Reagan does become President in 1981 this is months after the OTL coup, and even then it isn’t clear this early exactly how far he can be pushed. I think in the early stages at least the Soviets would be able to provide some support.



Assuming that this would have to take place before the OTL coup do you think this alone or the young officers’ coup would be enough for a civil war or would it need some combination of the two?

You need to find a way to
-keep senior officers from couping the government
-right-wing nationalist aligned officials promote in a quick manner
-left-wing revolutionaries to keep on strengthening, despite their leadership continuously being killed

An interesting repercussion of this could be the Kurdish-Turkish conflict becoming less of an ethnic conflict, and more part of a broader right vs. left conflict. This would undoubtedly have positive influences on Turkish-Kurdish relations, as it would cause more solidarity between the two peoples.

 

[Venocara]

You need to find a way to
-keep senior officers from couping the government
-right-wing nationalist aligned officials promote in a quick manner
-left-wing revolutionaries to keep on strengthening, despite their leadership continuously being killed

I feel like the first of these three isn’t too difficult to achieve; there was more than a year between Ecevit finding out about the coup and the date it was originally supposed to take place on before it was delayed. As such, I’m sure another reason could be found for further delay. The second also doesn’t seem to hard to achieve, but I don’t know enough about Turkey to comment with authority. As for the third, the only way I would know of them strengthening is with the great backing of the Soviets, but again I don’t know enough to elaborate further. What do you think?

An interesting repercussion of this could be the Kurdish-Turkish conflict becoming less of an ethnic conflict, and more part of a broader right vs. left conflict. This would undoubtedly have positive influences on Turkish-Kurdish relations, as it would cause more solidarity between the two peoples.

This is indeed interesting, I wonder what effect this will have on the Kurds in TTL if things fall apart in Iraq.

 

[Catalunya]

I feel like the first of these three isn’t too difficult to achieve; there was more than a year between Ecevit finding out about the coup and the date it was originally supposed to take place on before it was delayed. As such, I’m sure another reason could be found for further delay. The second also doesn’t seem to hard to achieve, but I don’t know enough about Turkey to comment with authority. As for the third, the only way I would know of them strengthening is with the great backing of the Soviets, but again I don’t know enough to elaborate further. What do you think?



This is indeed interesting, I wonder what effect this will have on the Kurds in TTL if things fall apart in Iraq.

You could just have the plotters not being aware of Ecevit being aware. The presidential situation would probably be solved eventually, as general elections were nearing.

You need to find a way to have the revolutionaries be strengthened enough by the time a more right-wing coup happens, that they can continue fighting even with the moderates fleeing to Western-Europe.

Kurdish nationalism in Turkey would probably be more like what it is in Iraq or Syria, and the breakdown of Kurdish and left-wing Turkish politics in the late 80s and early 90s would also probably not happen.