- Location
- Tamaki Makaurau
Apologies, this is going to be an incredibly 'Who Would The HMS Hood Marry' post, but I got thinking last night about who would be the heir to the Portuguese throne in 1808 if things had gone rather worse for J o a o. For the uninitiated, Portugal tried to remain neutral for as long as possible after the French invasion of Spain, but ultimately the royal court fled to Brazil a couple of days before the French army arrived in Lisbon, under the 'protection' of a British squadron who performed this service on the condition that Brazil's trade be opened up to all of Portugal's allies (i.e. literally just Britain, now that Prince Regent Joao had thrown his lot in with the Anglos).
Now, an Atlantic crossing wasn't exactly a done deal in those days, and the Portuguese fleet wasn't the most seaworthy in existence. IOTL they were lucky with the weather and only lost one (relatively unimportant) ship, but let's say there's a storm. Well, the first thing to point out is that all of the male members of the royal family were on a single ship, so if that goes down, mad Queen Maria's heir would be Prince Joao's eldest daughter Maria Teresa (who later married Infante Carlos of Spain and forced him to rebel on behalf of her absolutist ideas). But you'd only need to sink two more boats for the entire royal family to drown. Let's imagine all of these are wrecked with no survivors.
Queen Maria, her son and regent Joao, and all of his children are dead. Who's next? Well, Joao's late sister married a Spanish Infante and had a son, Pedro Carlos, who IOTL was at one stage considered as a future monarch of Argentina. But he lived with his Portuguese relatives, so he's dead. Joao also has a couple of aunts, Maria's sisters, but they're also at the bottom of the Atlantic (and are also too old to provide any more heirs, even if they survive - but that at least would take you to about 1830).
Other than these, there are no legitimate descendants of Maria's father, grandfather, great-grandfather or great-great-grandfather - Joao IV, who founded the royal Braganza dynasty by rebelling against the Spanish in 1640. Joao IV wasn't the genealogically senior heir, but he had the benefit of being rich and powerful and descended from the previous royal family. So you could go back to the House of Aviz and trace the line down - but that ends up with the King of Spain, who's just abdicated at Bayonne and in any case wouldn't be the preferred option for the Portuguese. So how about Joao IV's siblings? No issue. The best you can get is the descendants of his uncle, Duarte, younger son of the Infanta Caterina from whom the Braganzas' claim to legitimacy derives.
Duarte was around when the Braganzas were a major noble family of questionable loyalty to the Kings of Spain, so he was given a large estate in Castille... but not very defensible or close to Portugal. His great-grandson was Manuel Joaquin Alvarez de Toledo Portugal, Count of Oropesa, notable as one of Carlos II of Spain's main ministers. Manuel favoured the Austrian side in the War of Spanish Succession, as did his son Pedro Vicente, who was exiled to Vienna at the end of the war. He returned to Spain in 1725, only to die three years later. His own son died another ten days after that, so we have to look at Pedro Vicente's daughters (both of them, confusingly, named Ana Maria). The elder one married the Duke of Escalona and died a year later, having given birth to a daughter, who - as a major heiress - was married off three times, firstly to her own uncle. It runs in the family. Anyway, she died childless in 1768.
The other Ana Maria married the Duke of Alba and had a son, who died fairly young in 1770. He only had a daughter, Maria Teresa, who inherited the Dukedom and married a cousin. She was a patron of Goya and apparently used to go around seducing bullfighters and upstaging the Queen of Spain by wearing identical dresses to her. Anyway, she died childless in 1802, six years before the exodus. With 56 titles of nobility, she was the most ennobled member of the 19th century Spanish aristocracy.
That means we have to go back to Prime Minister Manuel a hundred years before, whose daughter married the Duke of Uceda and had nine children. The heir in 1808, then, was Diego Fernandez de Velasco, Duke of Uceda, who died in 1811 and would therefore have been the 'rightful' heir to Portugal if the royal family had all drowned in the Atlantic. One problem: he was an afrancesado and a big supporter of the Bonapartes. Maybe Napoleon could make him a client King of Portugal? It certainly complicates the justification for the British to go into the peninsula, if they aren't defending the interests of an allied King. Diego's son was actually part of the army that invaded Portugal in 1808, although apparently he deserted to become a partisan. Bernardino Fernandez de Velasco was a moderate liberal and served as Prime Minister of Spain briefly in 1838. There's a bit of complexity around the legitimacy of his son, but if you're wondering, the current heir to this line is Angela Maria de Solis-Beaumont y Tellez-Giron, Duchess of Arcos and Osuna. You're welcome.
I presume that, in reality, the British would still find a pretext to counter France in Portugal and Spain, and that Portugal would be given to some random prince, either at Britain's invitation or at the Congress of Vienna. But without the unifying force of an entrenched dynasty and the machinery of the royal court, you probably get a load of balkanised republics in Brazil fairly soon after 1808.
Now, an Atlantic crossing wasn't exactly a done deal in those days, and the Portuguese fleet wasn't the most seaworthy in existence. IOTL they were lucky with the weather and only lost one (relatively unimportant) ship, but let's say there's a storm. Well, the first thing to point out is that all of the male members of the royal family were on a single ship, so if that goes down, mad Queen Maria's heir would be Prince Joao's eldest daughter Maria Teresa (who later married Infante Carlos of Spain and forced him to rebel on behalf of her absolutist ideas). But you'd only need to sink two more boats for the entire royal family to drown. Let's imagine all of these are wrecked with no survivors.
Queen Maria, her son and regent Joao, and all of his children are dead. Who's next? Well, Joao's late sister married a Spanish Infante and had a son, Pedro Carlos, who IOTL was at one stage considered as a future monarch of Argentina. But he lived with his Portuguese relatives, so he's dead. Joao also has a couple of aunts, Maria's sisters, but they're also at the bottom of the Atlantic (and are also too old to provide any more heirs, even if they survive - but that at least would take you to about 1830).
Other than these, there are no legitimate descendants of Maria's father, grandfather, great-grandfather or great-great-grandfather - Joao IV, who founded the royal Braganza dynasty by rebelling against the Spanish in 1640. Joao IV wasn't the genealogically senior heir, but he had the benefit of being rich and powerful and descended from the previous royal family. So you could go back to the House of Aviz and trace the line down - but that ends up with the King of Spain, who's just abdicated at Bayonne and in any case wouldn't be the preferred option for the Portuguese. So how about Joao IV's siblings? No issue. The best you can get is the descendants of his uncle, Duarte, younger son of the Infanta Caterina from whom the Braganzas' claim to legitimacy derives.
Duarte was around when the Braganzas were a major noble family of questionable loyalty to the Kings of Spain, so he was given a large estate in Castille... but not very defensible or close to Portugal. His great-grandson was Manuel Joaquin Alvarez de Toledo Portugal, Count of Oropesa, notable as one of Carlos II of Spain's main ministers. Manuel favoured the Austrian side in the War of Spanish Succession, as did his son Pedro Vicente, who was exiled to Vienna at the end of the war. He returned to Spain in 1725, only to die three years later. His own son died another ten days after that, so we have to look at Pedro Vicente's daughters (both of them, confusingly, named Ana Maria). The elder one married the Duke of Escalona and died a year later, having given birth to a daughter, who - as a major heiress - was married off three times, firstly to her own uncle. It runs in the family. Anyway, she died childless in 1768.
The other Ana Maria married the Duke of Alba and had a son, who died fairly young in 1770. He only had a daughter, Maria Teresa, who inherited the Dukedom and married a cousin. She was a patron of Goya and apparently used to go around seducing bullfighters and upstaging the Queen of Spain by wearing identical dresses to her. Anyway, she died childless in 1802, six years before the exodus. With 56 titles of nobility, she was the most ennobled member of the 19th century Spanish aristocracy.
That means we have to go back to Prime Minister Manuel a hundred years before, whose daughter married the Duke of Uceda and had nine children. The heir in 1808, then, was Diego Fernandez de Velasco, Duke of Uceda, who died in 1811 and would therefore have been the 'rightful' heir to Portugal if the royal family had all drowned in the Atlantic. One problem: he was an afrancesado and a big supporter of the Bonapartes. Maybe Napoleon could make him a client King of Portugal? It certainly complicates the justification for the British to go into the peninsula, if they aren't defending the interests of an allied King. Diego's son was actually part of the army that invaded Portugal in 1808, although apparently he deserted to become a partisan. Bernardino Fernandez de Velasco was a moderate liberal and served as Prime Minister of Spain briefly in 1838. There's a bit of complexity around the legitimacy of his son, but if you're wondering, the current heir to this line is Angela Maria de Solis-Beaumont y Tellez-Giron, Duchess of Arcos and Osuna. You're welcome.
I presume that, in reality, the British would still find a pretext to counter France in Portugal and Spain, and that Portugal would be given to some random prince, either at Britain's invitation or at the Congress of Vienna. But without the unifying force of an entrenched dynasty and the machinery of the royal court, you probably get a load of balkanised republics in Brazil fairly soon after 1808.