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WI: No Wanggongchang Explosion?

Walpurgisnacht

It was in the Year of Maximum Danger
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Banned from the forum
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He/Him
The Wanggongchang Explosion was one of the most impactful explosions in world history in both senses of the term. As many as 20,000 people died, and among them was the only surviving son of the current Emperor, who would die a few years later. The loss of military material, and the money necessary to rebuild, would also put greater strain on the Ming state.

The incident is easy to avert (unless you subscribe to the bolide hypothesis), so let's focus on consequences. Does the absence of this blow allow the Ming to hold on a little longer, possibly resulting in a native dynasty taking charge instead of the Manchu?
 
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