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When The World Held Its Breath: First Lightning

I really do doubt that the Soviets would have been able to make it a surprise attack in 1941. Just too much in the way of German preparation and expectation of the Soviets to strike.

Yeah, given how much the attack would have relied on surprise it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the chances of success. The Germans reacted with alarm to what appeared to be new Red Army "concentations" that appeared in March although this was only ever a partial mobilisation and defensive in nature, if it wasn't the Germans wouldn't have simply ignored it.

The one thing I would say is that German intelligence appears to have become more brazen as Barbarossa neared; a report on June 13th (a Friday) determined that there seemed to be some Red Army reinforcement of the frontiers going on but this was dismissed as irrelevant, too late in the game. If the Soviets had began their build-up in May and played a very good deception game then I think there's at least a chance they could have caught the Germans off-guard.
 
The one thing I would say is that German intelligence appears to have become more brazen as Barbarossa neared; a report on June 13th (a Friday) determined that there seemed to be some Red Army reinforcement of the frontiers going on but this was dismissed as irrelevant, too late in the game. If the Soviets had began their build-up in May and played a very good deception game then I think there's at least a chance they could have caught the Germans off-guard.

In a sort of 'rolling all 6s' way?
 
What one really needs is for something to cause a distraction at the crucial time. May 1941 involved the Bismark's enterprise, for example. Have Bismark and PE evade Norfolk, Suffolk, and POW after the Hood, and start to cause issues in the Atlantic while the British seek it in the expanse of the Atlantic, and it's possible German eyes will be at least flickering westwards as well as eastwards. The Army will still be looking towards the Soviets, but those higher up the chain might be less focused.

The Iron Guard coup in Romania being a bit more successful might also be an idea - diverting attention and even resources from the Wehrmacht in having to put them down a very short time before Barbarossa
 
(I'm sorry about the necro, but i only saw this article when it popped up in my FB feed.)

There were several moments during the early Rommel Vs. UK campaigns when Rommel came very close to disaster - a stoke of bad luck at the worst possible time could easily lead to him losing much of his mobile force, or even being killed in combat himself. If the British did manage to pull off a tactical victory, and threaten Germany's ability to help Italy (as well as giving their own morale a shot in the arm), it might force Hitler to delay Barbarossa while dealing with the UK. He wouldn't want to, of course, but he couldn't let Italy go under or let his enemies think the German Army wasn't actually invincible after all.

How does that sound?

Chris
 
(I'm sorry about the necro, but i only saw this article when it popped up in my FB feed.)

There were several moments during the early Rommel Vs. UK campaigns when Rommel came very close to disaster - a stoke of bad luck at the worst possible time could easily lead to him losing much of his mobile force, or even being killed in combat himself. If the British did manage to pull off a tactical victory, and threaten Germany's ability to help Italy (as well as giving their own morale a shot in the arm), it might force Hitler to delay Barbarossa while dealing with the UK. He wouldn't want to, of course, but he couldn't let Italy go under or let his enemies think the German Army wasn't actually invincible after all.

How does that sound?

Chris
Don't apologise, part of the reason why I re-run these articles is precisely so people can see them and enter the discussion here who didn't see them the first time around.
 
There were several moments during the early Rommel Vs. UK campaigns when Rommel came very close to disaster - a stoke of bad luck at the worst possible time could easily lead to him losing much of his mobile force, or even being killed in combat himself. If the British did manage to pull off a tactical victory, and threaten Germany's ability to help Italy (as well as giving their own morale a shot in the arm), it might force Hitler to delay Barbarossa while dealing with the UK. He wouldn't want to, of course, but he couldn't let Italy go under or let his enemies think the German Army wasn't actually invincible after all.

How does that sound?

Chris

Was there really an opportunity for such a disaster in Feb-June 1941? It's certainly possible for Rommel to die, plenty of opportunities for that, but the British were so overextended (and diminished after the Greek sideshow) that it's difficult to see them being able to destroy the Axis mobile forces or quickly march on Tripoli subsequently.

I suppose without Greece the potential is there and by June in such a scenario Tripoli may look likely to fall soon with Italy, and its regime, threatened subsequently. However I can see that becoming yet another problem Barbarossa will be intended to solve rather than a reason to delay it. Italy was due to lose any remnant of its 'first ally' status after Barbarossa's success after all, no point propping up the Duce when he was due to become the Gauleiter of Italy anyway. The success of Barbarossa was also intended force the British to make peace and/or enable the Germans to bring about a British collapse so any temporary British success in the Med would likely have been disregarded.

I do think, following the fall of France, the proposition of a Med strategy had the best chance of dissauding Hitler from attacking the USSR in 1941 and he does seem to have explored it but even then it's tenuous. The notion was entertained at a time when Mussolini's boast of a parallel war in the Med still seemed credible which calls into question why Germany should need to be directly involved. German proponents of a Med strategy such as Raeder spoke of it in terms of it's potential for better enabling the eventual conquest of the USSR. Despite the appeals of Mussolini for Hitler to view the Med as the decisive theatre of the war, it's clear to see where the German priorities were.
 
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