ChrisNuttall
Well-known member
I wrote this for POD. I thought it might interest a few people here.
What if The USA Entered WW2 in Early 1941?
I did a version of this earlier, but I thought it was worth exploring a little more.
What Actually Happened
In early 1941, the German Battleship Bismarck was heading out to sweep the Atlantic and the British were mobilising to sink her. She was hit and forced to try to make her way back to Brest, which started her on a path to her eventual sinking. Unknown (perhaps) to the Germans, there were a handful of American vessels in the Atlantic at the time, including a pair of older model battleships. As it happened, the German and American ships never openly met before Bismarck was sunk.
What Might Have Happened
The chain of events that led to Bismarck being sunk were so unlikely that it is quite possible she might have been able to continue her cruise into the Atlantic. If that happened, it is possible she would have encountered one of the American ships. The US crews did have orders to radio warnings to their British counterparts, even though Washington was technically neutral. The Germans bitterly resented this. Worse, there would have been a very real chance the Germans would have mistook the American ships for British and started shooting. If this happened, the most likely result would be the sinking of the US ship. This gives FDR the excuse required to bring America into the war after the ‘sneak’ German attack on an American ship.
What now?
The US Navy would join the Royal Navy in hunting the Bismarck. Britain would have the time to mass a stronger fleet to confront the German ship, then probably catch her as she made the run back home. The UK would be able to make a big song and dance about avenging the US sailors killed by the treacherous Germans. It would also make it harder for Japan to believe the UK was weak, perhaps dissuading the Japanese from joining the war ahead of time. Pearl Harbour was always a gamble. It would be a great deal more dangerous if the US is actively at war, if not with the Japanese.
Hitler might try to smooth things over, as he hasn’t gone east (yet). I don’t think he’d be willing to make massive concessions, even if he was rational enough to believe the US needed to be placated. (Historically, Hitler never thought much of the US until it was far too late). In this case, the US can declare war and start ramping up war production well ahead of OTL, as well as shifting ships to the Atlantic. The real question is ... would the Germans still go east? It’s hard to say. The preparations for Barbarossa were well on their way, with a planned launch date in late June. If Hitler changed his mind ...
Germany is in trouble. From an economic point of view, Germany needs supplies from Russia to maintain its war machine. At the same time, Germany suddenly has a new and powerful enemy at the worst possible time. Trying to take what they need from Stalin might work, but it would be a gamble. As American naval power flows into the Atlantic, and the u-boats start taking a beating because there are more escorts available to patrol the sea lanes and escort convoys to their destination. Hitler might decide the US has to be beaten, or at least convinced to back off, before he stakes everything on Barbarossa.
That said, he doesn’t have many options. Invading Britain is a pipe dream. Invading America is even worse. Hitler might be able to take control of the Med and turn it into a German lake, but at the expense of passing on Barbarossa for the next few months. It isn’t a complete disaster, from the German POV, but Stalin will be a great deal stronger in 1942.
Let’s say Hitler shifts resources to the Med. He brings immense pressure to bear on Spain, trying to convince Franco to take Gibraltar. Franco isn’t so sure, but he has less room to manoeuvre in this timeline. The Germans target Malta with parachute troops, what remains of them, and start turning the island into a forward base. German aircraft roam the Med, cutting the convoy links between Britain and Egypt. Vichy France is forced to open bases to German aircraft, perhaps even supply German troops. With Hitler on their borders, the French have little choice.
This has serious effects as Rommel heads east. Historically, the British had immense trouble keeping him from taking Europe and crossing the Suez. Now, Egypt rises in revolt as the Germans punch through the defences and keep going. The British fall back to the canal, intent on using it as a barrier to keep the Germans from getting any further east. They have trouble in the rear, as Arabs revolts break out to the east and Jewish and Arab factions start battling in Palestine. Turkey makes matters worse by rattling the sabre, demanding concessions in Mosel or else.
Churchill and FDR disagree about how to approach the war. FDR wants to put together a massive invasion of France, while Churchill wants to secure Britain’s position in the Middle East, retake North Africa and even thrust into the ‘soft underbelly’ of Europe. Churchill is uneasily aware that American power is already growing, that it is just a matter of time before Britain is eclipsed completely. The US is already generating a sizable number of regiments and shifting war production into high gear. They’re untested as yet, but that too is just a matter of time.
Hitler keeps supplies flowing to Rommel while moving Panzer divisions to the Turkish border. Once they’re in place, he gives the Turks an ultimatum. If they join Germany as an ally, they can keep large chunks of the British Empire. If they refuse, Hitler will take Turkey and treat the Turks as an enemy nation (perhaps in alliance with the Russians). The Turks go back and forth a lot - they do want the territory, but they don’t trust Hitler to keep his word (and they’re not sure who’ll win the war either) They also know they can’t keep Hitler from overrunning European Turkey and, perhaps with the Russians, invading Asian Turkey either. They reluctantly agree to ally with Hitler.
German troops flood across the border and push down into Palestine, linking up with Arab rebels and stabbing a knife into Britain’s back. British forces withdraw into Iraq, leaving Jewish fighters to fight and die; Iraq rises as Turkish forces head south, triggering another series of bloody engagements. The British fall into Iran, ignoring the country’s neutrality and set up defensive lines along the Indian border. They have a breathing space as the Germans find themselves not only outrunning their logistics, but having to consolidate their gains.
So ... where do we go from here?
Japan is the wild card - they might stab Britain and America in the back as they did in OTL. On the other hand, there would be a great deal to gain by either staying out of the fighting or trying to ally with the US/UK. That would be an easier sell if the Allies desperately need the help.
The USSR isn’t going to be invaded, at least not in the remainder of 1941. Stalin may choose to push south himself, into Afghanistan and/or Iran, effectively serving as Hitler’s military ally. He may also wage war on the Japanese instead, gambling he can take most of Manchuria and Korea before Hitler invades or the Japanese manage to stop him. Or he can wait, build up his forces and see what happens. The prospect of the Allies and the Nazis bleeding each other dry cannot help, but be appealing to him.
The US is going to get very powerful very quickly, as it builds up its forces. By the end of 1941, it is already well on the way to putting together a much larger navy and air force. The ground forces are going to be stronger, but their tanks and suchlike are going to be less effective than their German counterparts. FDR still wants an invasion of Europe, but he’s also concerned with events in the middle east. Losing the Saudi oil wells is not an immediate problem, but it’s likely to become one fairly quickly.
So ... where do we go from here?
What if The USA Entered WW2 in Early 1941?
I did a version of this earlier, but I thought it was worth exploring a little more.
What Actually Happened
In early 1941, the German Battleship Bismarck was heading out to sweep the Atlantic and the British were mobilising to sink her. She was hit and forced to try to make her way back to Brest, which started her on a path to her eventual sinking. Unknown (perhaps) to the Germans, there were a handful of American vessels in the Atlantic at the time, including a pair of older model battleships. As it happened, the German and American ships never openly met before Bismarck was sunk.
What Might Have Happened
The chain of events that led to Bismarck being sunk were so unlikely that it is quite possible she might have been able to continue her cruise into the Atlantic. If that happened, it is possible she would have encountered one of the American ships. The US crews did have orders to radio warnings to their British counterparts, even though Washington was technically neutral. The Germans bitterly resented this. Worse, there would have been a very real chance the Germans would have mistook the American ships for British and started shooting. If this happened, the most likely result would be the sinking of the US ship. This gives FDR the excuse required to bring America into the war after the ‘sneak’ German attack on an American ship.
What now?
The US Navy would join the Royal Navy in hunting the Bismarck. Britain would have the time to mass a stronger fleet to confront the German ship, then probably catch her as she made the run back home. The UK would be able to make a big song and dance about avenging the US sailors killed by the treacherous Germans. It would also make it harder for Japan to believe the UK was weak, perhaps dissuading the Japanese from joining the war ahead of time. Pearl Harbour was always a gamble. It would be a great deal more dangerous if the US is actively at war, if not with the Japanese.
Hitler might try to smooth things over, as he hasn’t gone east (yet). I don’t think he’d be willing to make massive concessions, even if he was rational enough to believe the US needed to be placated. (Historically, Hitler never thought much of the US until it was far too late). In this case, the US can declare war and start ramping up war production well ahead of OTL, as well as shifting ships to the Atlantic. The real question is ... would the Germans still go east? It’s hard to say. The preparations for Barbarossa were well on their way, with a planned launch date in late June. If Hitler changed his mind ...
Germany is in trouble. From an economic point of view, Germany needs supplies from Russia to maintain its war machine. At the same time, Germany suddenly has a new and powerful enemy at the worst possible time. Trying to take what they need from Stalin might work, but it would be a gamble. As American naval power flows into the Atlantic, and the u-boats start taking a beating because there are more escorts available to patrol the sea lanes and escort convoys to their destination. Hitler might decide the US has to be beaten, or at least convinced to back off, before he stakes everything on Barbarossa.
That said, he doesn’t have many options. Invading Britain is a pipe dream. Invading America is even worse. Hitler might be able to take control of the Med and turn it into a German lake, but at the expense of passing on Barbarossa for the next few months. It isn’t a complete disaster, from the German POV, but Stalin will be a great deal stronger in 1942.
Let’s say Hitler shifts resources to the Med. He brings immense pressure to bear on Spain, trying to convince Franco to take Gibraltar. Franco isn’t so sure, but he has less room to manoeuvre in this timeline. The Germans target Malta with parachute troops, what remains of them, and start turning the island into a forward base. German aircraft roam the Med, cutting the convoy links between Britain and Egypt. Vichy France is forced to open bases to German aircraft, perhaps even supply German troops. With Hitler on their borders, the French have little choice.
This has serious effects as Rommel heads east. Historically, the British had immense trouble keeping him from taking Europe and crossing the Suez. Now, Egypt rises in revolt as the Germans punch through the defences and keep going. The British fall back to the canal, intent on using it as a barrier to keep the Germans from getting any further east. They have trouble in the rear, as Arabs revolts break out to the east and Jewish and Arab factions start battling in Palestine. Turkey makes matters worse by rattling the sabre, demanding concessions in Mosel or else.
Churchill and FDR disagree about how to approach the war. FDR wants to put together a massive invasion of France, while Churchill wants to secure Britain’s position in the Middle East, retake North Africa and even thrust into the ‘soft underbelly’ of Europe. Churchill is uneasily aware that American power is already growing, that it is just a matter of time before Britain is eclipsed completely. The US is already generating a sizable number of regiments and shifting war production into high gear. They’re untested as yet, but that too is just a matter of time.
Hitler keeps supplies flowing to Rommel while moving Panzer divisions to the Turkish border. Once they’re in place, he gives the Turks an ultimatum. If they join Germany as an ally, they can keep large chunks of the British Empire. If they refuse, Hitler will take Turkey and treat the Turks as an enemy nation (perhaps in alliance with the Russians). The Turks go back and forth a lot - they do want the territory, but they don’t trust Hitler to keep his word (and they’re not sure who’ll win the war either) They also know they can’t keep Hitler from overrunning European Turkey and, perhaps with the Russians, invading Asian Turkey either. They reluctantly agree to ally with Hitler.
German troops flood across the border and push down into Palestine, linking up with Arab rebels and stabbing a knife into Britain’s back. British forces withdraw into Iraq, leaving Jewish fighters to fight and die; Iraq rises as Turkish forces head south, triggering another series of bloody engagements. The British fall into Iran, ignoring the country’s neutrality and set up defensive lines along the Indian border. They have a breathing space as the Germans find themselves not only outrunning their logistics, but having to consolidate their gains.
So ... where do we go from here?
Japan is the wild card - they might stab Britain and America in the back as they did in OTL. On the other hand, there would be a great deal to gain by either staying out of the fighting or trying to ally with the US/UK. That would be an easier sell if the Allies desperately need the help.
The USSR isn’t going to be invaded, at least not in the remainder of 1941. Stalin may choose to push south himself, into Afghanistan and/or Iran, effectively serving as Hitler’s military ally. He may also wage war on the Japanese instead, gambling he can take most of Manchuria and Korea before Hitler invades or the Japanese manage to stop him. Or he can wait, build up his forces and see what happens. The prospect of the Allies and the Nazis bleeding each other dry cannot help, but be appealing to him.
The US is going to get very powerful very quickly, as it builds up its forces. By the end of 1941, it is already well on the way to putting together a much larger navy and air force. The ground forces are going to be stronger, but their tanks and suchlike are going to be less effective than their German counterparts. FDR still wants an invasion of Europe, but he’s also concerned with events in the middle east. Losing the Saudi oil wells is not an immediate problem, but it’s likely to become one fairly quickly.
So ... where do we go from here?