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What if the NDP won the 2015 general election?

H

Halton

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Let's say that Trudeau never runs for the Liberal leadership in 2013 or he ran a bad campaign. I wonder what would happen to Canada and I wonder what would happen to each party, especially the Liberals since they would be in third two times in a row.
 
I have thought that, at its peak in the early 2010s, the NDP with its strong representation in urban English Canada and in Québec was in a position to displace the Liberals as one of Canada's two natural parties of government. The Liberals would presumably become the Canadian equivalent to the LibDems.
 
After the 2011 election, there was talk of a merger between the Liberals and the NDP. After such a 2015 election, could it have happened? If so, I guess the Blue Grits would join the Tories while the NDP's left-wing would break off as a new party.
 
Ricardolindo said:
After the 2011 election, there was talk of a merger between the Liberals and the NDP. After such a 2015 election, could it have happened? If so, I guess the Blue Grits would join the Tories while the NDP's left-wing would break off as a new party.
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I doubt it. I don't think there was ever any real interest among the rank and file for a merger. They'd both have to be in pretty desperate positions for it to even become a serious possibility.
 
Well, this is Canada, so there's an obvious elephant in the room here: regionalism. An NDP victory in 2015 requires strong performances in both Quebec and the West. How does a Mulcair government handle, say, pipelines? And as for Quebec, the NDP was derailed in 2015 partly because Mulcair took the 'wrong' (from the perspective of holding the votes of Quebec nationalists) stance on the niqab. How does Mulcair navigate the laïcité minefield? What does his relationship with Legault (if the CAQ still win) look like? I suppose they could somehow muddle through for at least one term, but there has to be a serious chance that they either force themselves to choose one over the other and in turn face a CPC/Bloc backlash that makes it much harder to stay in office, or worse, just fall apart under the strain like the Mulroney PCs.
 
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I concur with Heat here - I think that an NDP government would cause the party to collapse (sooner rather than later IMO) under the weight of factional and regional divisions in a manner similar to the Mulroney PCs or Bob Rae's government in Ontario. The problem for the New Democrats is that they're maybe the most factional and ideologically divided major federal party (don't really count the Greens as that these days) and have a significantly higher amount of internal democracy than the Liberals and the Conservatives, which in turn would it much harder for them to govern without significantly alienating at least one section of a very fragile coalition. Mulcair would be additionally hamstrung by the fact that I find it very difficult to see the NDP winning a majority in 2015: the party's 2011 gains outside Quebec were modest and there are few seats in Quebec left for them to win. In Britain Labour was only able to come to power after a total collapse of the Liberal Party and it's hard to see Canada's Liberals completely collapsing in 2015 even if Trudeau isn't their leader.

I think the Rae experience is rather instructive. After sweeping to power the Rae government was quickly forced to abandon many of its promises in the face of a sustained economic crisis which alienated it from not only much of the electoral coalition that brought it to power but it's natural allies in the trade union movement and broader left-wing activist groups. This was a break from which neither the provincial nor federal NDP has properly recovered from even thirty years later. In addition by simple virtue of being the NDP they were mercilessly attacked by much of the press from the very start as a bunch of culturally alien radicals. Similar attacks don't really work on the Liberals because they're the Liberals, they have a strong brand that is attached to the history of the Canada in a way that few political parties in liberal democracies are.

I think Mulcair would have a similar experience to Rae. The 2015 NDP manifesto committed the party to balancing the budget and when you look at the economic performance and large deficits Trudeau presided over OTL in the 2015-2020 period it's clear that a Mulcair government would have an extremely difficult time even attempting to fulfil that budget promise without compromising on their many promised social programmes and economic reforms.

Heat brought up pipelines and I think that too is rather instructive. OTL the issue of pipelines has been hugely damaging to the NDP even as a party of opposition: you had the two NDP premiers openly feuding with each other over their construction, the NDP rank and file voting strongly against their construction which in turn led Rachel Notley to all but denounce the federal party. Even in the most recent election Jagmeet Singh was unable to explain what an NDP government would do with the Trans Mountain Pipeline now it was owned and under construction by the federal government. Now imagine how politically debilitating this issue could be for an NDP Prime Minister.
 
Callan said:
In addition by simple virtue of being the NDP they were mercilessly attacked by much of the press from the very start as a bunch of culturally alien radicals. Similar attacks don't really work on the Liberals because they're the Liberals, they have a strong brand that is attached to the history of the Canada in a way that few political parties in liberal democracies are.
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When the history of the country might as well be your brand, up to a point you're the ones who decide who's a culturally alien radical and who isn't.
 
Callan said:
Heat brought up pipelines and I think that too is rather instructive. OTL the issue of pipelines has been hugely damaging to the NDP even as a party of opposition: you had the two NDP premiers openly feuding with each other over their construction, the NDP rank and file voting strongly against their construction which in turn led Rachel Notley to all but denounce the federal party. Even in the most recent election Jagmeet Singh was unable to explain what an NDP government would do with the Trans Mountain Pipeline now it was owned and under construction by the federal government. Now imagine how politically debilitating this issue could be for an NDP Prime Minister.
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That would definitely be an issue. Unless something like the James Bay and Northern Quebec Agreement is pulled off for Trans Mountain, such as tying it with the Kelowna Accord (so that it would not just be a pipeline, but something more that would benefit indigenous peoples), then anything else from the NDP would be DOA as indigenous peoples were among the major anti-pipeline protestors - and for understandable reasons, of course (cf. Standing Rock south of 49, also based around concerned regarding pipeline construction).
 
Callan said:
Heat brought up pipelines and I think that too is rather instructive. OTL the issue of pipelines has been hugely damaging to the NDP even as a party of opposition: you had the two NDP premiers openly feuding with each other over their construction, the NDP rank and file voting strongly against their construction which in turn led Rachel Notley to all but denounce the federal party. Even in the most recent election Jagmeet Singh was unable to explain what an NDP government would do with the Trans Mountain Pipeline now it was owned and under construction by the federal government. Now imagine how politically debilitating this issue could be for an NDP Prime Minister.
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Oh, dear God... Jesus Christ. This is-... WOW.

Rosemary Barton: "Speaking of public resources, you criticize the Liberals for the Trans Mountain-... the purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline. I have listened to you now for almost five weeks, I do not understand what you would do with it if you formed government. So tell me."

Jagmeet Singh: "Well, I'm opposed to it. I've been opposed to it. I would have never bought it in the first place-..."

Rosemary Barton: "Yeah, I get that part."

Jagmeet Singh: "-...and, what I-..."

Rosemary Barton: "It's the second part I don't get."

Jagmeet Singh: "The second part is-... you know, if Mr Trudeau would have put as much energy in building pipelines as he would have in getting clean drinking water for indigenous communities, maybe we would have clean drinking water."

Rosemary Barton: "But that's not the question. The question is, you're the Prime Minister. The next day, what are you doing with the pipeline? Because it's purchased, Canadians own it, and it's being expanded. What are you doing with it?"

Jagmeet Singh: "Well, for Canadians to make a good, informed decision, they need to know where I stand. I'm opposed to it, I would have never bought it in the first place, Mr Trudeau bought it, and put us in this position. I would assess that asset, and make the best decision for Canadians."

Rosemary Barton: "What does that mean?"

Jagmeet Singh: "What-..."

Rosemary Barton: "What does that mean?"

Jagmeet Singh: "What Canadians should know is-..."

Rosemary Barton: "What does that mean, Mr Singh?"

Jagmeet Singh: "What Canadians should know is what I want to do."

Rosemary Barton: "What does that mean?"

Jagmeet Singh: "What I want to do is to put our money towards renewable energy-..."

Rosemary Barton: "I know, but, I'm sorry-..."

Jagmeet Singh: "I believe our future has to be one-..."

Rosemary Barton: "Yeah-..."

Jagmeet Singh: "-...where we're investing in what's renewable, and what's sustainable-..."

Rosemary Barton: "But this-..."

Jagmeet Singh: "That's what we should do."

Rosemary Barton: "-...is not a clear answer. And, and-... Right now, that's what we're trying to do here. We're trying to get clear answers to the voters. You would assess-..."

Jagmeet Singh: "It's very clear. We have to-... We have to, in government-..."

Rosemary Barton: "It's not clear."

Jagmeet Singh: "The prudent thing to do-..."

Rosemary Barton: "So you're going to assess it, and what is the determinant? What is the thing that you're going to look at to decide whether you keep it or sell it?"

Jagmeet Singh: "What is in the best interest of Canadians."

Rosemary Barton: "What does that mean?"

Jagmeet Singh: "Looking and assessing what is in their best interest."

Rosemary Barton: "So if there's a loss of money, you would keep it? If there's a risk that Canadians would lose out financially, you would be okay with keeping it?"

Jagmeet Singh: "I've made my position really clear on this. I'm opposed to it. I would never have purchased it in the first place. But Trudeau is the one who purchased it-..."

Rosemary Barton: "I know, but-... It's done now!"

Jagmeet Singh: "-...it is important for Canadians to know where I stand. And to know where-... I would have never purchased it. We've got a Prime Minister who talks about fighting the climate crisis, who turns around and buys a pipeline. That's something that Canadians can make a decision on. Inheriting a decision of Mr Trudeau's, I will look at that decision-..."

Rosemary Barton: "Yeah..."

Jagmeet Singh: "-...and make the best decision for Canadians."

Rosemary Barton: "Okay, I'm going to leave it there."
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TheCoolCucumber said:
This was really unfair, Rosie was totally ignoring the section of the NDP platform that committed them to building a time machine during their first mandate.
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Jagmeet Singh: ”We’re going to do what is in the best interest of Canadians.”

Rosemary Barton: ”What does that mean?”

Jagmeet Singh: ”That we’re going to look and assess what’s in their best interest.”

Rosemary Barton: ”Yes, and what is the determinant?”

Jagmeet Singh: ”The determinant is what is in Canadians’ best interest.”

Rosemary Barton: ”Yes, and what is in Canadians’ best interest?”

Jagmeet Singh: ”That we build a time machine out of a fucking DeLorean.”
 
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