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What if Murdo Fraser won?

Halton

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Had Murdo Fraser won, the Scottish Tories probably would have split off from the national Tories regionally and changed their name. How would the new party have fared and would there have been a "continuity" Scottish Tory party?
 
Had Murdo Fraser won, the Scottish Tories probably would have split off from the national Tories regionally and changed their name. How would the new party have fared and would there have been a "continuity" Scottish Tory party?
I think @Fletch did a TL about something similar happening a few years earlier on AH.com?
 
I think @Fletch did a TL about something similar happening a few years earlier on AH.com?
I started but it lacked detail and never really got off the ground. There could have been a continuity Tory Party, but likely wouldn't. It has been on my mind for a while to do it properly, but doubt there would be that much interest tbh.

I still think that a CSU-style Scottish Tory Party in alliance with the UK Tories is their only way to tap into a portion of the SNP support who are small-n nationalists in the North East, the Borders etc.

It would be difficult to attack them as a London Party if the New Tories are an independent party after all.

Had it happened when Murdo stood for the leadership, it could have ppotentially massively changed the Indy-ref and the aftermath, depending on how successful he was in getting the separate party message across.
 
I'm now flashing back to the shock in 2017 when the Tories won seats in Scotland - what happens if the CSU* does manage to tap into that portion of SNP support and ends up winning more seats? It takes just three more Scottish seats to have a knife-edge deadlocked parliament, four for a majority of one, both still humiliating results for May but one that means she doesn't need the DUP deal for day-to-day stuff. That changes parts of her run and also means the CSU saved a Tory government, which surely has a big impact on how Scotland's viewed, the SNP's stances etc.

Also now you have Scottish Tory ministers where we didn't before, which changes that, and whatever they'll want on Brexit talks has to be taken into account, which changes that potentially

* Conservative Scottish Unionists
 
I'm now flashing back to the shock in 2017 when the Tories won seats in Scotland - what happens if the CSU* does manage to tap into that portion of SNP support and ends up winning more seats? It takes just three more Scottish seats to have a knife-edge deadlocked parliament, four for a majority of one, both still humiliating results for May but one that means she doesn't need the DUP deal for day-to-day stuff. That changes parts of her run and also means the CSU saved a Tory government, which surely has a big impact on how Scotland's viewed, the SNP's stances etc.

Also now you have Scottish Tory ministers where we didn't before, which changes that, and whatever they'll want on Brexit talks has to be taken into account, which changes that potentially

* Conservative Scottish Unionists
Ruth Davidson not being Tory leader in this situation probably means there are fewer gains in 2017. Even if they had a few more than OTL, it probably doesn't change things hugely. May wouldn't need to suffer the humiliation of paying off the DUP, but she's still going to be beholden to another group of unionists with similar concerns Brexit-wise.
 
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Ruth Davidson not being Tory leader in this situation probably means there are fewer gains in 2017. Even if they had a few more than OTL, it probably doesn't change things hugely. May wouldn't need to suffer the humiliation of paying off the DUP, but she's still going to be beholden to another group of unionists with similar concerns Brexit-wise.
Ruth Davidson achieved a combination of being personable whilst at the same time mobilising the Unionist voters in the same way the SNP mobilised the yessirs.

Bear in mind, 2015 was a shock, destroying 56 years of Labour dominance in Scotland. In this scenario, the SNP would be less able to play themselves off as he Scottish party versus the London establishment.

This means the tenor of the Indyref changes with the CSU, for want of a better name, being able to tap into a form of Scottish nationalism which backs the Union.

Now, should the Indy Ref be different, 2015 is also going to be different, and a better 2015 sets them up for a better 2016, where they became the main opposition in Holyrood.

I mean,Wales aside, the Scottish Tories must be the only conservative party in the western world which doesn't tap into nationalism. This new party would have the potential to alter that.
 
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