• Hi Guest!

    The costs of running this forum are covered by Sea Lion Press. If you'd like to help support the company and the forum, visit patreon.com/sealionpress

What if ASBs antipodally swap the hemispheres for Australasia and Iberia in the 1890s, or in the 1930s?

raharris1973

Well-known member
Scenario 1: ASB action in 1896:

Australia, NZ, and New Guinea (or at least eastern half) & Bismarcks disappear on Jan. 1 1896. Spain, Portugal, Spanish Morocco, Balearics, Madeira, Canaries, disappear at the same time. All are replaced by impenetrable, impassable, fully reflective stasis* fields/bubbles foor six months, on reappearing in their new locations, at their exact antipodes, on June 1, 1896, to minimize seasonal disruption.

(*stasis means time stands still, thus matter/energy cannot move through areas where the dimension of time is not applying (a stasis field), making it a perfect force field. It's been used in multiple science fiction works. See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasis_(fiction))

ASB spell prevents climate disasters and prevents mass panic and madness, that would distract people and countries from carrying on with their normal economic, cultural and political lives. How do the 1890s and turn of the century proceed?

This historical era includes: This is about a year into the Cuban Revolution against Spain, about two months before the beginning of US legislation escalating US participation in the Venezuelan boundary dispute, 6 years after the British ultimatum to Portugal, and 8 months before the start of the Filipino revolution. The disappearance of the antipodes occurs at the same time as the Jameson Raid in Transvaal and the Kaiser’s Kruger Telegram the following day. Would the Spanish in Cuba have faced a critical resupply crisis during the homeland’s six month hiatus in time? Would any of the other Spanish and Portuguese colonies, then all momentarily at peace, have broken out into rebellion or declared secession, or been been occupied by third powers during that hiatus? What ability do the Spanish and Portuguese have to reestablish control over their scattered global imperial holdings when they get back from their six months hiatus in time? What does this event do to the possibility of a Spanish-American War, on any front, in the Caribbean or Pacific? What does it do to the prospect of Australian federation and British imperial policy going forward into the 20th century?

Here are maps illustrating the change:

Global view
QG3iu9P

Antipodes_equirectangular- up over with kiwis and peninsulares down under_ sml.jpg

Close of New Zealand relative to Europe
YblKnq2

Antipodes_LAEA -  EuroKiwi cloes-up.jpg

Close up of Australia & New Guinea relative to the Atlantic & American coasts
Antipodes_LAEA_inverted - AtlanticOz close-up.jpg
2VZ41Z2

"Close-up" of Iberian countries relative to the South and East Pacific and Pacific American coasts
Antipodes_LAEA_inverted-IberoPacifico-close-up.jpg

Scenario 2: ASB action in 1932:

Australia, NZ, and New Guinea (or at least eastern half) & Bismarcks disappear on Jan. 1 1932. Spain, Portugal, Spanish Morocco, Balearics, Madeira, Canaries, disappear at the same time. All are replaced by impenetrable, impassable, fully reflective stasis fields/bubbles. For six months, on reappearing in their new locations, at their exact antipodes, on June 1, 1932, to minimize seasonal disruption.

ASB spell prevents climate disasters and prevents mass panic and madness, that would distract people and countries from carrying on with their normal economic, cultural and political lives. How do the 1930s proceed?

Historical era includes: Portuguese Estate Novo, Spanish Republic, Spanish Civil War, Australia and New Zealand independence per Statute of Westminster and the early years of the British Imperial Preference non-free trade system, and Britain’s handling of its interwar foreign and defence policy dilemmas and WWII.

No new maps, the geographic change is basically identical, and I am not showing in detail all the world's political borders.
 
For the 1890s version of this scenario - I would predict that this occurrence would greatly boost emigration from the British Isles, and Europe more generally, to Australia, and especially New Zealand, now that it is so much closer. Also, by putting them in the same hemisphere in the same growing season, this puts Australian and New Zealand farmers in direct competition with American ones, making competition tougher for all, probably more so for the Americans, possibly boosting Populist sentiment there. Australia is also more convenient for American immigration. It probably siphons some flow that would have otherwise gone to Canada, the US, and Latin America.

The British Empire has a land border with Morocco to protect at the edge of New Zealand's former South Island. That likely means Britain will not look kindly on the opposite shore of Morocco becoming an exclusive French or Spanish preserve but rather Britain would support an international open door or great power condominium, if not it's own rule there. The strait between NZ north and south island would be the new equivalent of Gibraltar. however, north of New Zealand, there is new passageway between there and Ireland and Cornwall and Brittany that is far wider than any mere strait, "unchoking" free movement of ships from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic and back.

The German section of New Guinea is now a German tropical Atlantic base instead of a tropical Pacific base. The Germans (for as long as they keep it) can use it to support their trade, influence, and gunboat diplomacy in Africa, the Caribbean, and against South American countries like Brazil, Venezuela, Uruguay, and Argentina.

It is an open question whether Australia and New Zealand become as autonomous from London and form their historic continental federations. Particularly so for New Zealand, the relatively smaller and close to England. New Zealand may end up simply being organized as counties and constituencies directly incorporated into Great Britain and Ireland and directly represented in the Westminster parliament.

The US, with a more robust string of British bases (by way of Australia) sticking towards its face and the Caribbean will probably be more circumspect and a bit less strident in tone when weighing in on the British Guiana-Venezuela border dispute.

break/break

During the period of Spain's apparent absence under the stasis bubble for six months, Spanish forces in Cuba will most likely concede independence to the Cuban rebels in return for rights of naturalization, property, and personal security, or alternatively, they may debark for Puerto Rico. Most other parts of the Spanish empire may hold under the status quo regime as a caretaker, although there is a chance the Filipino rebellion may begin sooner than historical, and Spanish forces may concede independence to rebels, believing themselves hopeless without support from metropolitan Spain.

The status quo regimes in Portuguese colonies are likely to hold together under local officials while Portugal is absent, because they were primarily neighboring colonies of friendly European nations or ruling areas with barely developed local nationalism, or in areas with sensitive treaty port regimes like India and China where no one wants to upset the apple cart. The senior most Governor and "center" of the empire for this period is likely Angola.

There might be a delay, or a slight alteration in terms more to Britain's liking in the Hay-Pauncefote treaty over the Isthmian canal, because British interest and power projection toward that region will be enhanced.

When Spain and Portugal reappear in the southern hemisphere, they are very isolated from Europe and Africa. It makes it ever easier for them to remain neutral countries going forward. Spain finds itself shorn of Cuba, without a fight. Spain never fights America here. It may end up shorn of the Philippines at the same time, or it may end up having to fight a long, drawn out, Filipino insurgency, that it fights hard against than in OTL. Spain should have more ability and interest in holding on to Micronesian islands including Guam. Portugal can likely reinsert itself at the top of its global empire. Both will be net emigration countries. A difference will be that northern Europe and North America won't be so convenient for migration and seasonal work, so most emigrants from Spain will go to Spanish America, and most Portuguese emigrants will go to Brazil, Portuguese colonies, and Hawaii.

I think Portugal is still likely to turn Republican since its monarchy had been humiliated, but maybe that outcome could be changed.

For the second scenario in 1932:

Spanish Morocco would go with Spain. This might mean there might be a very, very narrow strait between New Zealand (former North Island) and French Morocco. Or they are connected by a very, very, very narrow isthmus. The Spanish Republic will have a great deal of social tensions, which will flare up, with more likelihood than not of turning into a coup and/or Civil War. However, not being on the strategic flank of Europe, foreign participation in combat and in arming the combatants will be much less than OTL. If the Popular Front is elected, the left is more likely to defeat the coup and win any subsequent civil war than not. The long-term effects on the rightist-leaning Portuguese Estado Novo next door would be interesting.

I think the colonies both Iberian countries still held in 1932 were at a low enough level of development and national consciousness that the status quo administrations stay in charge, and they will pick up where they leave off. Possibly, Chinese Nationalists pull a stunt occupying Macau. Or Chinese Communist guerrillas do so, forcing Nationalists to go after them, but it is an under 50-50 chance.

Australia, Australian Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand are all in the Atlantic. The 1930s are past the point of peak European emigration, and this Depression era was not a high emigration time anyway. But travel and the hunt for seasonal or temporary work would be more feasible between all of North America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Europe.

Without the Spanish Civil War to suck him and his volunteer forces to ever deeper involvement, Mussolini may have a dangerous amount extra static energy floating around in the years 1936-1939. He might deploy it in aggressive wars against either Yugoslavia or Greece. As a real longshot, he might do so against France, but it is doubtful. Or he may do less to put the brakes on Hitler in '38, or join him from the beginning of a war if it starts in 1939. If so, and he hasn't had wasteful medium sized wars in the mean time, his forces equipment may be better than OTL.

The Soviet Union, with any Spanish Civil War less relevant to them, may devote more attention, volunteers, and aid funds to supporting the Chinese Nationalist and United Front's fight against Japan.

With their physical location now closer to Europe, New Zealand, and especially Australia, may be less disinterested in continental security affairs and may signal supportiveness for British rearmament and firmness against Hitler as early as 1938, instead of flexing their regional autonomy muscles and fretting about not getting enough support against Japan.
 
Both Spain and Portugal will find themselves in a relatively stronger position versus their Pacific holdings, although it is open to question what sort of Spanish-Filipino relationship you could make. Cuba is likely to split away from the Spanish empire, while Puerto Rico is anyone's guess.

I do wonder what will happen to the Portuguese empire, with the metropole removed for a half-year. Does it get partitioned in the interregnum?
 
As for transplanted Australasia, this TL might actually be one where CANZUK makes sense with a relatively continuous band of British and British-controlled territories extending across the North Atlantic.
 
Severe disaster for Scandinavia! You’ve short-circuited the Gulf Stream! Sweden, Norway, and Finland will be about as habitable as Nunavut within the next two or three years!
Sweden, Norway and Finland are mild for their latitude because not only the Gulf Stream but also the westerly winds.
 
Severe disaster for Scandinavia! You’ve short-circuited the Gulf Stream! Sweden, Norway, and Finland will be about as habitable as Nunavut within the next two or three years!

All of them? Or just the northern parts?

Their southern parts are on similar latitudes with England. Their northern populations could bunch up in Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki, and points south.
 
All of them? Or just the northern parts?

Their southern parts are on similar latitudes with England. Their northern populations could bunch up in Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki, and points south.

Yeah, England is going to suffer too. All of northern Europe depends on the Gulf Stream for life there to be endurable. Without it, temperatures everywhere are going to start dropping. And you cannot just have people "bunch up" in the cities. You have agriculture producing food, you have forests producing timber, etc.
 
All of them? Or just the northern parts?

Their southern parts are on similar latitudes with England. Their northern populations could bunch up in Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki, and points south.
Yeah, England is going to suffer too. All of northern Europe depends on the Gulf Stream for life there to be endurable. Without it, temperatures everywhere are going to start dropping. And you cannot just have people "bunch up" in the cities. You have agriculture producing food, you have forests producing timber, etc.
As I said, the mild climate in Northern Europe is because not only of the Gulf Stream but also the westerly winds. It is also seen in the west coasts of North America and South America.
 
Back
Top