The 1908 Congo Crisis

[Aznavour]

In 1885, King Leopold of Belgium was given the right to rule the heart of Africa and millions of unwilling/unwitting subjects on the basis that it was better than letting other countries have it, and that Leopold would keep free trade open so as to guarantee a better looting of the place.

What followed was systematic atrocities so heinous that the other incredibly oppressive imperial powers had to put their foot down and demand that Belgium take over.

Except that Belgium was rather reluctant, as was Leopold. Throw in Kaiser Wilhelm and his mad foreign policy, diverging Anglo-French interests for Central Africa and the complex system of alliances, not to mention things like Morocco and the Balkans, and this could potentially escalate into a bigger Fashoda/Agadir/Bosnia Crisis and another precursor to the Great War.

And what could the end result be? Some sort of Liberia-style Free Congo Estate signing unequal treaties to the West to keep the Plunder going? Partition?

 

[SenatorChickpea]

Alright, let's assume that we're looking at a POD in the Belgium parliament and the annexation bill fails. I don't know the procedure they had for resubmitting legislation, but let's handwave it as precipitating a crisis that takes Belgian annexation off the table for at least the short term.

I don't think the Free State is surviving in any form. The move to strip Leopold of his power had begun gathering momentum well before 1908- I think the first legislation was drafted in 1901, though I'd have to check. With no League of Nations trust arrangement or United Nations, there's no multilateral framework for a neutral Free State to persist. Condominiums were generally seen as an unworkable mess even in tiny areas like the New Hebrides (Vanuatu); absolutely no one is going to want shared governance of the Congo.

And no power is going to inherit the lot, so that leaves us partition.

I'm also sceptical that this will be a Fashoda. By 1908, most of the Anglo-French African tensions had been resolved. Britain did not at this stage have much of an interest in controlling the Congo basin directly; I see no reason why the Foreign Office would object to a Franco-Portuguese division of the area. After all, they don't need direct control of the mineral fields in Katanga for their mining companies to operate out of Northern Rhodesia.

Germany's not going to be able to extend much out of its territories in Cameroon; though the Kaiser may huff and puff, I think that it will be easier for the French to stake their claim in the west of the Free State.

That leaves us with a largely Franco-Portuguese partition, with Britain and Germany taking concessions in the east around the Great Lakes.

Of course, the Force Publique have a history of major mutinies, and I wouldn't rule out serious problems putting such a partition into practice.

 

[Torten]

I think the British would be keen to pick up Katanga.

Additionally, I think the Congo might have been internationalised during negotations.

 

[Gary Oswald]

Additionally, I think the Congo might have been internationalised during negotations.

I don't think this is impossible, but its worth remembering that's what people thought they'd be getting from Leopold and just didn't.

Whatever Tangiers style administration is found, there's going to be a lot of suspicion that they're also going to pull a fast one on you.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I think the British would be keen to pick up Katanga.

Additionally, I think the Congo might have been internationalised during negotations.

I think the British would be interested in Katanga, but I'm not sure they'd press hard for it; in our timeline they were able to successfully get a commercial foothold without direct rule and by 1908 I'm not sure there was much of a constituency left to expand Rhodesia even further north.

I also concur with Gary; I think that after the failure of the Free State and the lack of an alternative framework, I think internationalisation is a no go.

 

[Torten]

I don't think this is impossible, but its worth remembering that's what people thought they'd be getting from Leopold and just didn't.

Whatever Tangiers style administration is found, there's going to be a lot of suspicion that they're also going to pull a fast one on you.

I actually meant the Congo river, not the whole of the Congo.

I agree that internationalising the entire country would be challenging.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I actually meant the Congo river, not the whole of the Congo.

The problem is that the rest of the country is governed from the river, so internationalising it would cause real problems with the partition.