Surviving Srivijaya

[Ricardolindo]

Let's say Srivijaya survives for longer. Could they strengthen Hinduism and Buddhism in Malaysia and Indonesia? Could this prevent the Islamization of Malaysia and Indonesia?

 

[heraclius]

In the long run, I suspect that there is going to be a risk of breakaways from the Srivijayan state as it is so large - especially if there is any disputed succession and civil war that ends up with separate and rival dynasts on Java and Sumatra with their fleet split up. Rebels have many islands to hide on, and campaigning to reduce them would need a lot of effort and competence to succeed long-term; one weak central ruler or under-age succession could cause disaster. The rise in wealth and local importance of the cities on the Malacca Strait as trade between China and India/ Europe by sea increases in the 11th to 13th centuries, with a larger and more financially adept market in Song China and their expansion in the South , added to insecurity on the land routes of the Silk Road as Turkic and Mongol tribal confederations feud, should push the importance of the Straits - and the growth of the local ports will attract merchants there and lead to ambitious dynasts (with landed vassals and inland tribes providing them with revenue and troops?) considering breaking away.

Suppressing all such attempts will need a long-term unified and coherent S high command over centuries , which is a big ask for the medieval dynasties and courts of Indonesia where states seem to have risen and fallen quite rapidly (reasons unclear, evidence lacking) eg Sailendra and Singhosari - and after the 1270s there is a new and aggressive Mongol state controlling southern China and its navies and looking to extend its influence. In OTL Kubilai attacked Japan and Singhosari (Java); in this scenario he could well send a huge fleet off to attack Srivijaya if its ruler refuses to do homage, attracted by the chances of loot. (Also, it is possible that some refugee Song princes could flee to S to seek help when their state fell in 1279 and so annoy the Mongols.) The chances are that the Mongols would have the, captured Song naval technology plus their own rockets to use as 'cannons' and win a naval battle, if they were not hit by a storm at sea (as in the OTL naval attack on Japan). In the long run, I would reckon that the vast distances and travel difficulties across the Indonesian archipelago would encourage centrifugal tendencies and then arriving Moslem holy men and merchants could spur on (mainly Malacca / W Sumatra?) breakaway sub-rulers and get them to convert 'as thanks to Allah' if they win as promised. They would then corner the main trade route to and from China, and possibly create an earlier Singapore as an 'eastern Venice'.

There's also the unanswered questions of local volcanic or earthquake/ tsunami disasters, or famine, hitting Srivijaya as these may have helped to undermine other early local empires; the 'Ring Of Fire' is a zone prone to this and S could end up with its fleet sunk in a disaster and/ or famine from volcanic ash causing peasant revolts and local vassals seizing their chances. A stable polity long-term is likelier in a more compact and mainly urban area, eg eastern Java, though rivalry (by an equivalent of Majapahit?) with Moslem city-states on Sumatra could aid a Hindu or Buddhist dynasty in linking ancestral religion to resistance and keeping their old order long-term. There would be an equivalent of the OTL Buddhist kingdom of Kandy on Sri Lanka, but centred on the shrine complex at Borobodur?

 

[Ricardolindo]

In the long run, I suspect that there is going to be a risk of breakaways from the Srivijayan state as it is so large - especially if there is any disputed succession and civil war that ends up with separate and rival dynasts on Java and Sumatra with their fleet split up. Rebels have many islands to hide on, and campaigning to reduce them would need a lot of effort and competence to succeed long-term; one weak central ruler or under-age succession could cause disaster. The rise in wealth and local importance of the cities on the Malacca Strait as trade between China and India/ Europe by sea increases in the 11th to 13th centuries, with a larger and more financially adept market in Song China and their expansion in the South , added to insecurity on the land routes of the Silk Road as Turkic and Mongol tribal confederations feud, should push the importance of the Straits - and the growth of the local ports will attract merchants there and lead to ambitious dynasts (with landed vassals and inland tribes providing them with revenue and troops?) considering breaking away.

Suppressing all such attempts will need a long-term unified and coherent S high command over centuries , which is a big ask for the medieval dynasties and courts of Indonesia where states seem to have risen and fallen quite rapidly (reasons unclear, evidence lacking) eg Sailendra and Singhosari - and after the 1270s there is a new and aggressive Mongol state controlling southern China and its navies and looking to extend its influence. In OTL Kubilai attacked Japan and Singhosari (Java); in this scenario he could well send a huge fleet off to attack Srivijaya if its ruler refuses to do homage, attracted by the chances of loot. (Also, it is possible that some refugee Song princes could flee to S to seek help when their state fell in 1279 and so annoy the Mongols.) The chances are that the Mongols would have the, captured Song naval technology plus their own rockets to use as 'cannons' and win a naval battle, if they were not hit by a storm at sea (as in the OTL naval attack on Japan). In the long run, I would reckon that the vast distances and travel difficulties across the Indonesian archipelago would encourage centrifugal tendencies and then arriving Moslem holy men and merchants could spur on (mainly Malacca / W Sumatra?) breakaway sub-rulers and get them to convert 'as thanks to Allah' if they win as promised. They would then corner the main trade route to and from China, and possibly create an earlier Singapore as an 'eastern Venice'.

There's also the unanswered questions of local volcanic or earthquake/ tsunami disasters, or famine, hitting Srivijaya as these may have helped to undermine other early local empires; the 'Ring Of Fire' is a zone prone to this and S could end up with its fleet sunk in a disaster and/ or famine from volcanic ash causing peasant revolts and local vassals seizing their chances. A stable polity long-term is likelier in a more compact and mainly urban area, eg eastern Java, though rivalry (by an equivalent of Majapahit?) with Moslem city-states on Sumatra could aid a Hindu or Buddhist dynasty in linking ancestral religion to resistance and keeping their old order long-term. There would be an equivalent of the OTL Buddhist kingdom of Kandy on Sri Lanka, but centred on the shrine complex at Borobodur?

Thanks for the reply. What do you think of the argument at that only the elites of pre-Islamic Malaysia and Indonesia were Hindu and Buddhist and that the commoners were pagan?

 

[heraclius]

The points about elite conversion as a priority for incoming 'missionary' holy men and why the people converted later from local 'pagan' (ie non-monotheistic) local nature-linked cults seem logical to me - and are familiar as I have seen the same arguments in the debate over how and why the pagan Anglo-Saxon kings in England were converted to Catholic Christianity in the 7th century. Prestige as linking them to a successful and wide-ranging international religious brotherhood with a fabled overseas centre of pilgrimage as its HQ (Rome / Mecca), the authority of a 'chosen one of the One God who brings victory and prosperity' as talked up by the missionaries, the role of a 'divinely approved' intercessor between the people and their new god who had to be obeyed for fear of divine punishment, and the advantage that a stable international religious network brought more trade and income plus luxury goods to show off and to distribute to your followers.

Plus the certainty of rewards and punishment after death for all, with the evil but successful facing their comeuppance - there is a famous passage in Bede's (730s) history of the conversion where the nobles of Northumbria are debating whether to do as King Edwin proposes and convert and one says that life is like a swallow flying in from the dark cold to a warm and bright dining-hall and then out into the dark again for an unknown destination and converting to Christianity (ie with its explanations of a purpose in life and what happens to the soul) will bring more light and an end to the mystery. I would reckon that the same arguments apply in Indonesia etc for the appeal of the preachers, be they wandering missionary mystics on their own (as a lot of early Celtic Christian missionaries were) or zealous travellers sent by a Moslem group keen on conversion as a holy duty (equivalent to the R Catholic missions from Rome) or traders who brought news of conversion linking their own networks of internat luxury goods suppliers to the local kings. The states of the region were largely scattered and decentralised at this era, like the Anglo Saxon (and later the Viking and Slav) states, with an expanding, ambitious, and 'striving' (in modern political terms) class of farmers and warriors looking for wealth and security - and the distant Islamic world with its powerful Caliphate had some of the fabled glamour of the Mediterranean world of Christian Rome. Also, like the overwhelmed 'pagan' religion of England etc, the local cults were decentralised, largely based on tradition and 'keeping up the ancestors' ways for good luck and good harvests', and not structured so as to mount an aggressive or co-ordinated defence; they could be gradually overwhelmed as more and more people converted and the peasants presumably followed their lords' leadership. Possibly also , more than in NW Europe, climate disasters and occasional volcanic explosions would terrify or unnerve the locals into seeking to appease the Divine and even thinking that the old ways had not protected them?