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Successful February 1927 Portuguese Revolt

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
In February 1927, some Portuguese military units revolted against the military dictatorship, with the goal of restoring democracy. What if the revolt succeeded? Would the restored democracy be more stable than the First Republic? If so, what are the long term effects on Portugal and the rest of the world?
@archangel
 

archangel

Battery-powered Bureaucrat
Location
Portugal
In February 1927, some Portuguese military units revolted against the military dictatorship, with the goal of restoring democracy. What if the revolt succeeded? Would the restored democracy be more stable than the First Republic? If so, what are the long term effects on Portugal and the rest of the world?
@archangel
Honestly, I have my doubts the restored 1st republic would be more stable, the rebellious units intended to restore it with the same flaws, as far as I know.
It's important to keep in mind that the 1st republic was a very limited democracy, with a small franchise designed to keep much of the population out of the polls, and with routine vote buiying and even fraud to thwart the vote of the majority of those who could vote.
For the restored democracy to be more stable, there would have to be a proper, wide franchise, and free and fair elections, things that the (Democratic-)Republican Party prevented.
A successful restored democracy (implying proper political reforms) would be pro-Allies in an alt-WW2 (even if in a neutral capacity). This might even change the outcome of the Spanish civil war, if it occurs, given that pro-democracy (left or right) forces in Portugal would be pro-Republican government.
 

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
Honestly, I have my doubts the restored 1st republic would be more stable, the rebellious units intended to restore it with the same flaws, as far as I know.
It's important to keep in mind that the 1st republic was a very limited democracy, with a small franchise designed to keep much of the population out of the polls, and with routine vote buiying and even fraud to thwart the vote of the majority of those who could vote.
For the restored democracy to be more stable, there would have to be a proper, wide franchise, and free and fair elections, things that the (Democratic-)Republican Party prevented.
A successful restored democracy (implying proper political reforms) would be pro-Allies in an alt-WW2 (even if in a neutral capacity). This might even change the outcome of the Spanish civil war, if it occurs, given that pro-democracy (left or right) forces in Portugal would be pro-Republican government.
I am aware of the flaws of the First Republic. Regardless, it's not clear to me whether a restored democracy would have supported the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War, especially if it had a right-wing government. France and the UK didn't. Actually, the former did but only briefly. As for World War II, couldn't we say that, in our timeline, the Estado Novo was a pro-Allies neutral? AFAIK, Salazar wanted and expected the Allies to win.
 

archangel

Battery-powered Bureaucrat
Location
Portugal
I am aware of the flaws of the First Republic. Regardless, it's not clear to me whether a restored democracy would have supported the Republicans in the Spanish Civil War, especially if it had a right-wing government. France and the UK didn't. Actually, the former did but only briefly. As for World War II, couldn't we say that, in our timeline, the Estado Novo was a pro-Allies neutral? AFAIK, Salazar wanted and expected the Allies to win.
Salazar was an oportunist, and played both sides, but indeed he slightly preferred the Western Allies than the third Reich, which was antiethical to his religious beliefs.
In regards to the Spanish Civil War, a surviving democracy in Portugal means the main Republican Right would have predominance over the fringes who hijacked the 1926 Coup, and they would feel much closer to a Republican Spain (minus the far-left that also hurt the Spanish Republic) - our centre-rigt of the time (which in OTL, slowly, bit by bit, moved into the opposition) would have more more in common with the dominant parties of the Spanish republic, adherence to a parliamentary democracy, than with the anti-liberal Francoist forces, and could serve as middlemen to ensure former CEDA supporters defect from Franco's side.
 

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
BTW, @archangel, what point of divergence do you think would be better for a stable restored democracy following the 1926 coup? This one, another of the reviralhista revolts or Mendes Cabeçadas and/or Gomes da Costa not being removed?
Also, would a stable restored democracy have decolonized peacefully?
 

archangel

Battery-powered Bureaucrat
Location
Portugal
BTW, @archangel, what point of divergence do you think would be better for a stable restored democracy following the 1926 coup? This one, another of the reviralhista revolts or Mendes Cabeçadas and/or Gomes da Costa not being removed?
Also, would a stable restored democracy have decolonized peacefully?
IMHO, the best way is to have Mendes Cabeçadas stay in control, it would mean the democracy oriented parts of the republican right stay in control, keep the more illiberal parts of the right in check (not a guarantee, but the best option), and prevent the (Democratic-)Republicans to do the same shenanigans again.
People like him would have ensure that proper, free and fair elections would ensue. This would relegate the (Democratic-)Republicans to the opposition for a few decades, at the very least, but would avoid the taint that democracy (or the appearance of it) got from the (D-)R antics (fraud, incompetence, anti-clericalism, disenfranchisement, the disregard of the will of everyone that was not the male urban petite-bourgeoisie, etc). This in turn would prevent siren calls from opportunists from the far-right (the far-left was weak on a mostly rural country).
Given enough time, and suppressing reviralhista (D-)R inspired coup attempts, and even them would have to reform and adapt to proper democracy (or disappear - OTL no party claims political descent from them, given the bad reputation they got).
Gomes da Costa would not be a good choice, he made things worse in OTL.
 

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
IMHO, the best way is to have Mendes Cabeçadas stay in control, it would mean the democracy oriented parts of the republican right stay in control, keep the more illiberal parts of the right in check (not a guarantee, but the best option), and prevent the (Democratic-)Republicans to do the same shenanigans again.
People like him would have ensure that proper, free and fair elections would ensue. This would relegate the (Democratic-)Republicans to the opposition for a few decades, at the very least, but would avoid the taint that democracy (or the appearance of it) got from the (D-)R antics (fraud, incompetence, anti-clericalism, disenfranchisement, the disregard of the will of everyone that was not the male urban petite-bourgeoisie, etc). This in turn would prevent siren calls from opportunists from the far-right (the far-left was weak on a mostly rural country).
Given enough time, and suppressing reviralhista (D-)R inspired coup attempts, and even them would have to reform and adapt to proper democracy (or disappear - OTL no party claims political descent from them, given the bad reputation they got).
Gomes da Costa would not be a good choice, he made things worse in OTL.
Should I create a thread about that?
 

archangel

Battery-powered Bureaucrat
Location
Portugal
I don't, but I wonder whether it would be better to create a thread for that point of divergence rather than discuss it here.
Regardless, would a restored stable democracy decolonize peacefully?
Depending on whether a colonial war starts and the year it starts (and who is in power), it's possible a shorter colonial war may still occur.
On the other hand, democratic governments in a proper 2nd republic would probably develop the colonies (and keep/develop local government structures), so the colonies (at least some of them) would probably be better prepared for decolonisation, and either the colonial war doesn't occur or it is much shorter.
Independence would occur where local demand for it exists, which means Cape Verde, São Tomé and Principe and East Timor are kept.
I'm not sure if Goa can be retained (and there won't be a armed conflict if there's local popular demanding it to be ceded to India).
Regarding Macau, it depends on what happens with TTL China (the POD is earlier enough that it might change or not the Chinese Civil War).
 

Milo

George Brown Apologist
Patreon supporter
Location
London
Depending on whether a colonial war starts and the year it starts (and who is in power), it's possible a shorter colonial war may still occur.
On the other hand, democratic governments in a proper 2nd republic would probably develop the colonies (and keep/develop local government structures), so the colonies (at least some of them) would probably be better prepared for decolonisation, and either the colonial war doesn't occur or it is much shorter.
Independence would occur where local demand for it exists, which means Cape Verde, São Tomé and Principe and East Timor are kept.
I'm not sure if Goa can be retained (and there won't be a armed conflict if there's local popular demanding it to be ceded to India).
Regarding Macau, it depends on what happens with TTL China (the POD is earlier enough that it might change or not the Chinese Civil War).
Surely the British or the other colonial to keep control and maybe set up some form of local government they could dominate, but the main focus would be keeping the unrest out of their holdings
 

Simon

Oblivious
I'm not sure if Goa can be retained (and there won't be a armed conflict if there's local popular demanding it to be ceded to India).
What was local public opinion like in our timeline do you know? If an alternate Portugal has invested a bit more and in a referendum there's a small majority for continued association I have to wonder how India would react.
 
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Indicus

<insert title here>
Location
Trawno
Pronouns
he/him
What was local public opinion like in our timeline do you know? If an alternate Portugal has invested a bit more and in a referendum there's a small majority for continued association I have to wonder how India would react.
Following incorporation into India, Goa voted for a political party (which held power until the 1980s) which not only supported incorporation into India, but wanted Goa annexed into the Indian state of Maharashtra on the basis that Goan culture was a form of Maharashtrian culture and that the Konkani language was a Marathi dialect. This indicates that it was broadly supportive of incorporation, I'd say, even if the question of whether Goans are Maharashtrians or not remains controversial.

But on the other hand, a lot of this is due to the character of the Portuguese fascist regime. Goa is Hindu-majority, after all (and it was at this point as well), and so naturally you can expect that the Christian supremacist nature of the Portuguese regime was massively alienating to them especially. Beyond that, there was the impact of its authoritarianism on Goan politics. One major moment in the Indian nationalist movement in Goa was when, in 1946, the Indian nationalist Ram Manohar Lohia led mass protests against the Portuguese regime which ended with the protests being brutally suppressed and Lohia being imprisoned (only a few months after the end of his prison term in the British Raj, no less). This horrified many and discredited peaceful protest as a force, resulting in the formation of guerrilla groups in the 1950s - one of its leaders, Mohan Ranade, was imprisoned in Lisbon until 1972. Indian nationalism in this Goa may well evolve differently in this very different Portugal.

Yet, even a democratic Portugal may well be authoritarian and repressive in Goa. British constitutional government did not stop the British Raj from being an authoritarian state that regularly arrested political opponents and gunned down peaceful protestors, after all - the same may well be true in this Goa. There's also the question of trade links between Goa and (the rest of) India, and how that may affect its development.
 
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archangel

Battery-powered Bureaucrat
Location
Portugal
Following incorporation into India, Goa voted for a political party (which held power until the 1980s) which not only supported incorporation into India, but wanted Goa annexed into the Indian state of Maharashtra on the basis that Goan culture was a form of Maharashtrian culture and that the Konkani language was a Marathi dialect. This indicates that it was broadly supportive of incorporation, I'd say, even if the question of whether Goans are Maharashtrians or not remains controversial.

But on the other hand, a lot of this is due to the character of the Portuguese fascist regime. Goa is Hindu-majority, after all (and it was at this point as well), and so naturally you can expect that the Christian supremacist nature of the Portuguese regime was massively alienating to them especially. Beyond that, there was the impact of its authoritarianism on Goan politics. One major moment in the Indian nationalist movement in Goa was when, in 1946, the Indian nationalist Ram Manohar Lohia led mass protests against the Portuguese regime which ended with the protests being brutally suppressed and Lohia being imprisoned (only a few months after the end of his prison term in the British Raj, no less). This horrified many and discredited peaceful protest as a force, resulting in the formation of guerrilla groups in the 1950s - one of its leaders, Mohan Ranade, was imprisoned in Lisbon until 1972. Indian nationalism in this Goa may well evolve differently in this very different Portugal.

Yet, even a democratic Portugal may well be authoritarian and repressive in Goa. British constitutional government did not stop the British Raj from being an authoritarian state that regularly arrested political opponents and gunned down peaceful protestors, after all - the same may well be true in this Goa. There's also the question of trade links between Goa and (the rest of) India, and how that may affect its development.
A democratic Portugal (in practice, not just in name) will repress secceding activity, until least until mentalities change, but it will increase the franchise outside European Portugal and inevitably create local governance structures, with the pace slightly depending on the strength of civil society (in the broad sense of literacy) at each area.
 
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