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Shining Path Takes Over Peru

N

napoleon IV

Sheer Animal Cunning of the Groundhog
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Washington, Douglass Commonwealth
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Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman just died, which got me thinking: what would have happened if Shining Path had been able to defeat the Peruvian government and take power? Obviously they probably wouldn't last long, given that their post-conquest plans were nuts and the US is not going to tolerate a Maoist state in South America, but how long could they have gone for and what would the long term effects be?
 
napoleon IV said:
Shining Path leader Abimael Guzman just died, which got me thinking: what would have happened if Shining Path had been able to defeat the Peruvian government and take power? Obviously they probably wouldn't last long, given that their post-conquest plans were nuts and the US is not going to tolerate a Maoist state in South America, but how long could they have gone for and what would the long term effects be?
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Maoists aren't pro-Soviet. Thus, it's not clear to me whether the US wouln't tolerate a Maoist regime in Peru. In addition, depending on when they win, the Cold War is either ending or over.
 
Ricardolindo said:
Maoists aren't pro-Soviet. Thus, it's not clear to me whether the US wouln't tolerate a Maoist regime in Peru. In addition, depending on when they win, the Cold War is either ending or over.
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The US is anti soviet because of the communism, not anti communist because of the soviets. And I mean is, not was. The cold war ending won't change anything. In fact it probably frees up the US to act even more openly.
 
Nyvis said:
The US is anti soviet because of the communism, not anti communist because of the soviets. And I mean is, not was. The cold war ending won't change anything. In fact it probably frees up the US to act even more openly.
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Oh, definitely - which is why I'd think the US would probably see that and the FARC in Colombia as one and the same and ramp up efforts to defeat them both. (After all, around this period the US is pouring a lot of effort into propping up Central American dictatorship and supporting the Nicaraguan Contras.) Not to mention turning the screws on Cuba so its Communist government would be gone. Whether the US succeeds on all three is an open question.
 
Nyvis said:
The US is anti soviet because of the communism, not anti communist because of the soviets. And I mean is, not was. The cold war ending won't change anything. In fact it probably frees up the US to act even more openly.
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The US had relatively good relations
with Yugoslavia and, from the 70s, China as they were anti-Soviet.
The end of the Cold War did make the US care less about governments in Latin America.
 
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Considering the brutality of Shining Path, it would be pretty easy for the US to oppose it overtly too especially if this is when the Cold War's winding down. Which could also mean a long-term effect is making it harder to go "hang on, US policies and Latin American junta policies to Stop Communism in the continent were quite nasty" - the other guy can go "look what happened in Peru, that was worse than [whatever example being discussed]". The Peruvian right wing get to whitewash some of their past too.
 
Charles EP M. said:
Considering the brutality of Shining Path, it would be pretty easy for the US to oppose it overtly too especially if this is when the Cold War's winding down. Which could also mean a long-term effect is making it harder to go "hang on, US policies and Latin American junta policies to Stop Communism in the continent were quite nasty" - the other guy can go "look what happened in Peru, that was worse than [whatever example being discussed]". The Peruvian right wing get to whitewash some of their past too.
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Imagine if it ends like Afghanistan though...
 
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Charles EP M. said:
Considering the brutality of Shining Path, it would be pretty easy for the US to oppose it overtly too especially if this is when the Cold War's winding down. Which could also mean a long-term effect is making it harder to go "hang on, US policies and Latin American junta policies to Stop Communism in the continent were quite nasty" - the other guy can go "look what happened in Peru, that was worse than [whatever example being discussed]". The Peruvian right wing get to whitewash some of their past too.
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Not to deviate from the subject of the thread, but, AFAIK, the Peruvian right-wing didn't have much of a dirty past. Peru actually had a left-wing military dictatorship under Juan Velasco Alvarado.
(Fujimori was after the period we're discussing.)

Nyvis said:
Imagine if it ends like Afghanistan though...
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What, exactly, do you mean?
 
Ricardolindo said:
What, exactly, do you mean?
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US goes in with a plan to break Shining Path but no plan to build anything in their place, ends up staying for a few decades before having to leave once it's clear it's not sticking and they just flow back into the vacuum.
 
Nyvis said:
US goes in with a plan to break Shining Path but no plan to build anything in their place, ends up staying for a few decades before having to leave once it's clear it's not sticking and they just flow back into the vacuum.
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I doubt there would be an invasion. I see support to opponents of the Shining Path but not an invasion.
 
Nyvis said:
US goes in with a plan to break Shining Path but no plan to build anything in their place, ends up staying for a few decades before having to leave once it's clear it's not sticking and they just flow back into the vacuum.
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Given the average Peruvian peasant had no great love for Shining Path I doubt that would be a problem unless the Americans really fuck up.
 
Nyvis said:
US goes in with a plan to break Shining Path but no plan to build anything in their place, ends up staying for a few decades before having to leave once it's clear it's not sticking and they just flow back into the vacuum.
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Which makes the MRTA our Northern Alliance equivalent, I guess?
 
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